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Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

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Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#141

Post by Invictus0 »

autokad wrote: post #137
pjc50 wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> since 1928 dividends plus inflation accounted for 99.7% of the nominal wealth produced, as of 2008, by investing in stocks. OK, so strip out inflation to get real rather than nominal returns, and it becomes "stock investment produces almost all its returns in dividends over a long period". Which is .. not that surprising? Because dividends are ultimately why people buy stocks in the first place? The present value o…

> Because dividends are ultimately why people buy stocks in the first place? I would disagree, I feel like the mojority of stonk owners think dividends are passe companies, and a real company would reinvest its earnings or buy back stock. I disagree with these people. I think a company that has no intention of paying a dividend is merely an over produced digital collectible.

You disagree that buybacks are more tax efficient than dividends?

> I think a company that has no intention of paying a dividend is merely an over produced digital collectible.

So, Amazon is a NFT?

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#142

Post by bumby »

b33j0r wrote: post #41

My primary criticism is that it took me several minutes to see a chart. The exposition is very interesting. I don't judge a paper by its cover, but it kinda took a lot of work to read something that was described as visual! Is there a nuance to this publishing process that makes this make sense?

>Is there a nuance to this publishing process that makes this make sense?

This can sometimes be an artifact of submitting for peer review where tables and figures are uploaded as separate documents than the manuscript and then combined into a single document. I think this makes it easier to format the tables and figures for a journal.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#143

Post by icedchai »

nostromo wrote: post #101
awb wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think they've been slow for maybe the last 20 years Really? 20 years is the difference between a generation being raised pre/post: * smart phones * streaming services (endless free content) * massive computing storage / processing upgrades * mass adoption of eCommerce * video calling * ubiquitous social networking * EVs * mRNA vaccines * Mars exploration * LHC * 3D printing It amazes me to look back at 2003 and s…

Compare 1940 to 1960, 1960 to 1980, 1980 to 2000 -- then compare 2000 to 2020. 2000 to 2020 is the least impressive 20 year period by a long shot.

I would agree. 2000-2020 feels more evolutionary, not revolutionary. I grew up in the 80's and 90's, so perhaps my own perspective is warped.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#144

Post by Invictus0 »

zitterbewegung wrote: post #129
devops000 wrote: post #124

It’s very common nowadays to see people suggest investing into S&P500 ETFs and keep them forever. More then 20% of US population owns stocks. I think we are near a change into this paradigm.

What is your suggestion to do instead? Owning a non index fund will have a fee of at least 1% Putting it under your mattress makes you lose from inflation. I'm not sure doing 60 / 40 stocks and bonds could be another solution.

Think about your investments intelligently instead of looking for a guaranteed sinecure.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#145

Post by quickthrower2 »

not_math wrote: post #88
nostromo wrote: post #78

The Titanic was built a bit over 100 years ago for 1.5m pounds -- today that'd buy you a nice London two-bedroom apartment. I wonder if in 100 years from now, people will casually be talking about their nice (but modest) London two-bedroom apartment they bought for 100m pounds.

The Titanic cost $7.5 million to build, which is $200 million in today's money (as of 2020) [1]. I'm pretty confident this is not the cost of the average flat in London. [1] https://www.history.com/news/titanic-facts-construction-pass...

/r/whoosh

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#146

Post by treis »

kortilla wrote: post #138
treis wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>People are expecting more and more handouts and no one wants to pay for it I think this is more that we're entering a post material scarcity economy kind of like we changed from almost everyone being farmers. We're leaving behind the economy where almost everyone manufactures stuff to where they do something else.

> think this is more that we're entering a post material scarcity economy No we’re not. Materials for housing, etc are just as expensive as ever. Food still has to be heavily subsidized by the government directly and indirectly (“water rights”). Post-scarcity is a fantasy world used to justify heavily socialist policies that allow people to not work without having to wonder who does have to work.

Your etc is doing a lot of work here, but post COVID craziness aside I don't think building materials are more expensive than they were in 1990. As an example, lumber has been flat or slightly down since 1995:

https://www.lesprom.com/en/news/U_S_lumber_prices_in_2020_an...

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#147

Post by PKop »

treis wrote: post #111
sleton38234234 wrote: post #92

I have a theory. The last 100 years has seen govt spending as percent of gdp increase to ever greater levels. People are expecting more and more handouts and no one wants to pay for it. Without the ability to pay for it via taxes, the govt will eventually have to default on it's currency and thus real returns on fixed income/bonds will have to become increasingly negative. Their article already shows a slight widenin…

>People are expecting more and more handouts and no one wants to pay for it I think this is more that we're entering a post material scarcity economy kind of like we changed from almost everyone being farmers. We're leaving behind the economy where almost everyone manufactures stuff to where they do something else.

>we're entering a post material scarcity economy

This seems a rather dangerous view, as the post scarcity era of maybe the late 20th century globalism, or the larger industrial revolution and coincident population explosion, could be nearing it's end. Peak cheap oil may be just around the corner. The growth built atop improving agriculture yields, cheap oil, and cheap labor has resulted in population growth that cannot be maintained without corresponding sources of the same cheap input sources.

And part of this is exacerbated by what you describe: a huge portion of population not subsisting on their own work output but depending (or being subsidized by) the work and resources of others.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#148

Post by kgwgk »

awb wrote: post #68
sauwan wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Tech advancements are slowing down Are they? I think they've been slow for maybe the last 20 years, but it seems like the advances in things like AI and Genomics are rapidly accelerating and may lead to growth like we haven't seen in several decades...

> I think they've been slow for maybe the last 20 years Really? 20 years is the difference between a generation being raised pre/post: * smart phones * streaming services (endless free content) * massive computing storage / processing upgrades * mass adoption of eCommerce * video calling * ubiquitous social networking * EVs * mRNA vaccines * Mars exploration * LHC * 3D printing It amazes me to look back at 2003 and s…

> massive computing storage / processing upgrades

I feel that the improvement in the previous 20 years was much more massive.

Forty years ago PCs had been introduced quite recently and an internal disk was still a non-standard option.

Ditto for “smart phones”. Forty years ago 1G telephony was not yet available in the US, nevermind how dumb and bulky those phones were.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#149

Post by ant6n »

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #118
ant6n wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Solar, wind, or whatever Future Tech is unlikely to have the same direct mine->refine->commodity->sell->use cycle on which a lot of this edifice is built What’s that mean? Solar is providing energy at similar costs.

It's providing energy with fewer intermediaries soaking up profits along the way, and can be done "anywhere" the sun shines instead of where resource deposits are concentrated. Entire political classes will be (and are) mobilized to push against this. There is a lot to lose for a lot of people. That and a huge % of the stock market's value right now is built up of energy companies. Especially here in Canada.

So we’ll spread out energy production to more smaller actors, and it will be more interesting how energy is used. That could rejuvenate markets, let old fossil giants die.

Trudeau should rejoin the Paris Accords and move to the secondary and tertiary sectors (or as Mulcair put, get rid of Dutch Disease), or Canada (and everybody else) will be fucked.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#150

Post by Kon-Peki »

q845712 wrote: post #130
Kon-Peki wrote: post #39

The reason all the stock market charts you see start in 1926 is because they come from CRSP data, which starts in 1926. If you are a student at a university almost anywhere in the world that offers an MBA or other advanced degree in business or finance, it subscribes to the CRSP data service with 95+% probability. If you are an engineering or a CS student, the university contract covers you! You'll probably have to t…

just a nit, but especially given the economics outlook advanced by and named for the U of C, the line between the University of Chicago and a for-profit corporation is both thin fuzzy.

Haha :)

By the way, the story goes that back in 1960, one of the big Wall Street firms wanted to know whether, since the depression, it was better to invest in big companies or little companies. They asked all the universities in and around NYC, who all told them that nobody knew. One of the executives was a U of C grad and asked them one day when he was in Chicago. They said that they had no idea but that if they gave them money they’d find out. When they published the study, everyone started calling and asking for access to the data, and thus the entire field of academic financial research was born :)

The study was done on a univac 2 and it blew people’s minds that such quantities of data could be analyzed in one go.

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