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Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

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Re: Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

#141

Post by pandaman »

woodruffw wrote: post #136
pandaman wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NY troopers contradict NHSTA ( https://www.nhtsa.gov/risky-driving/drunk-driving ) by a lot. I wonder how do they gather their statistics? But your math does not make sense even with the data you have: you said if the drunks were killing in subway at the same rate as they do on the road then 47 people were killed in subway every day yet you took the 47 number from much larger pool of drivers. Should not it be a quart…

I have no idea how they gather their statistics, that’s just the first source I found! Let’s use NHTSA instead and assume their numbers are better; even so, over an order of magnitude more people die from drunk drivers than do whatsoever on a daily basis on public transport, even after you adjust for ridership. > Should not it be a quarter of that, 12 people? I adjusted the 300 public transit deaths up by a factor of…

>I adjusted the 300 public transit deaths up by a factor of 4, which is the same as adjusting the 17,000 or 12,000 drunk driving deaths down by a factor of 4.

You adjusted 300 fatalities per year by a factor of 4 that you got from the number of transit commuters and the number of the motorists and got 47 people per day? I am still not following.

>Why should it?

Because you don't need to wait for bus when you drive?

>Unless you have a specific reason to believe that there’s a silent epidemic of bus station shootings, this reads as special pleading.

I don't believe it's silent. I have reasons to believe a lot of people get assaulted on the bus stations and in subway stations.

> and 1.5% were homicides[1]

10 people killed in NYC subway over 13 years? I find this number a bit on the lower side TBQH. Perhaps they count "pushed under the train in such a way it could not have been written off as suicide or negligence on the victim's part"?

Re: Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

#142

Post by pandaman »

woodruffw wrote: post #138
pandaman wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I lived in a worker's paradise with public transit for everyone, criminals camped outside subway stations as they provided a good and stable stream of prospective mugging victims. I wonder how many muggings happen to transit users compared to motorists in the US?

One in 20 violent crimes overall happen in either gas stations or convenience stores[1], so there would have to be a lot of public transport muggings to compensate for that! [1]: https://cspdailynews.com/company-news/c-stores-are-4th-most-...

Great thing is that you are free to not visit gas station's convenience store, can you use transit without visiting stations?

Re: Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

#143

Post by woodruffw »

pandaman wrote: post #142
woodruffw wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One in 20 violent crimes overall happen in either gas stations or convenience stores[1], so there would have to be a lot of public transport muggings to compensate for that! [1]: https://cspdailynews.com/company-news/c-stores-are-4th-most-...

Great thing is that you are free to not visit gas station's convenience store, can you use transit without visiting stations?

This is not a sensible response: it’s not a matter of whether you can avoid visiting the convenience store, because millions of people do. There’s a clear demand for it, and accompanying crime.

(Besides, in most bus networks you actually can use the buses without using the stations — most allow riders to be dropped off anywhere along the route. But that’s entirely besides the point, as you haven’t presented a lick of evidence that statistically significant crime is happening in public transit stations.)

Re: Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

#144

Post by woodruffw »

pandaman wrote: post #141
woodruffw wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have no idea how they gather their statistics, that’s just the first source I found! Let’s use NHTSA instead and assume their numbers are better; even so, over an order of magnitude more people die from drunk drivers than do whatsoever on a daily basis on public transport, even after you adjust for ridership. > Should not it be a quarter of that, 12 people? I adjusted the 300 public transit deaths up by a factor of…

>I adjusted the 300 public transit deaths up by a factor of 4, which is the same as adjusting the 17,000 or 12,000 drunk driving deaths down by a factor of 4. You adjusted 300 fatalities per year by a factor of 4 that you got from the number of transit commuters and the number of the motorists and got 47 people per day? I am still not following. >Why should it? Because you don't need to wait for bus when you drive? >…

> You adjusted 300 fatalities per year by a factor of 4 that you got from the number of transit commuters and the number of the motorists and got 47 people per day? I am still not following.

47 people per day is just the ratio from the NY troopers' site's statistics. If we use the NHTSA instead, it's 32. If you then adjust that downwards by 4, you get 8, which is an order of magnitude higher than the daily deaths on public transit by all causes.

> Because you don't need to wait for bus when you drive?

Sure. Instead you wait at gas stations, rest stations, wander through underground parking lots, and so forth. This is not a compelling justification for introducing a category error to the comparison, and I suspect that it isn't one that will ultimately favor your position (given that 5% of all violent crime happens in the first two categories).

> I don't believe it's silent. I have reasons to believe a lot of people get assaulted on the bus stations and in subway stations.

Sources that substantiate this would be fantastic. Absent those, it's an unsubstantiated feeling.

> Perhaps they count "pushed under the train in such a way it could not have been written off as suicide or negligence on the victim's part"?

The NYPD does not miss an opportunity to characterize events as homicides or other violent crimes. Again: unless you have a sourced reason to believe that the NYPD lied about homicide numbers in the subway system between 1990 and 2003, this is baseless.

Re: Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

#145

Post by josephcsible »

jgwil2 wrote: post #137
pandaman wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What good is a yard if nothing grows there because it's surrounded by high-rises blocking sun? And not sharing walls is of little comfort when you are adjunct to a 20 unit apartment where 4 units have a party every night and on the weekends - all 20 do. It's not like we have made up zoning just to piss off hipsters. Zoning came up as a solution to the problem of your externalities not stopping on your property line.…

Firstly, your comment completely ignores the negative externalities created by North American-style suburbs in the first place. Secondly, this is still a strawman: I've yet to hear of any policy proposal that would abolish zoning completely and allow highrises to go up anywhere. What policies would do is things like let the market determine whether it's more efficient to build a McMansion for one family or a fourplex…

> But if you still hate this so much, you can live far enough from the city that it's not economical to build next door to you, or you can own enough land that it won't be an issue.

So you can avoid the problems by either accepting a commute that's 2 hours each way (and for which public transit is all but guaranteed to be unavailable), or by being rich.

Re: Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

#146

Post by pandaman »

woodruffw wrote: post #143
pandaman wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great thing is that you are free to not visit gas station's convenience store, can you use transit without visiting stations?

This is not a sensible response: it’s not a matter of whether you can avoid visiting the convenience store, because millions of people do . There’s a clear demand for it, and accompanying crime. (Besides, in most bus networks you actually can use the buses without using the stations — most allow riders to be dropped off anywhere along the route. But that’s entirely besides the point, as you haven’t presented a lick o…

I can see how it can be confusing: you argue that transit is safe insisting that any crime happening around the transit use is irrelevant. You get mugged walking out of the station because that's where criminals expect solid foot traffic? Not transit fault, even though there is no way to avoid this situation while using transit. On the other hand, convenience stores on gas stations, where most crime is happening against clerks, are making driving dangerous for everyone even though you don't need to visit these stores while driving. I suspect you are emotionally invested in propagating the idea of transit safety and there is no point in further argument, which I only entered out of curiosity about your math.

Re: Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

#147

Post by pandaman »

jgwil2 wrote: post #137
pandaman wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What good is a yard if nothing grows there because it's surrounded by high-rises blocking sun? And not sharing walls is of little comfort when you are adjunct to a 20 unit apartment where 4 units have a party every night and on the weekends - all 20 do. It's not like we have made up zoning just to piss off hipsters. Zoning came up as a solution to the problem of your externalities not stopping on your property line.…

Firstly, your comment completely ignores the negative externalities created by North American-style suburbs in the first place. Secondly, this is still a strawman: I've yet to hear of any policy proposal that would abolish zoning completely and allow highrises to go up anywhere. What policies would do is things like let the market determine whether it's more efficient to build a McMansion for one family or a fourplex…

Curious: in your vision, what are negative externalities that you have in mind and how are they going to disappear with more dense living in the very same suburbs?

Re: Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

#148

Post by pwinnski »

slaymaker1907 wrote: post #5

I always think it's weird how instead of just improving public transit, we've all become fixated on self driving vehicles. Good transit would mean most people don't need to operate a vehicle while having a plethora of other benefits like combating climate change and more efficient land use (if you live in a suburb, take note of the sheer amount land dedicated to parking; it's often more land than the store for retail…

Public Transit in the USA, truly nationwide public transit, would cost more money than exists, or has ever existed. And that's if you solved the issue of people not wanting public transit!

As I type this I'm in the New Orleans city center, where the noise eight floors up is constant and overwhelming. Like, had to pause the movie last night multiple times because street noise was drowning out dialog. In my suburb back home, things are very, very, very quiet. It is much easier to imagine public transit where I am now than where I normally live, but that wouldn't help me in the suburbs.

In theory, I love urban density. In theory, I hate parking minimums and zoning restrictions. In practice, like most Americans, I'm choosing to live in the land of parking minimums, zoning restrictions, and little to no public transit.

Viable public transit in metro areas is economically a tough sell, but culturally it's even tougher.

I think self-driving vehicles are mostly fraud, and that you'll get your wish about stagnation, but that doesn't mean public transit will step up in the gap. I think it will just mean we continue to sacrifice 35k-45k people every year and keep our cars.

Re: Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

#149

Post by decafninja »

woodruffw wrote: post #95
decafninja wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The drunk guy about to T-bone you is more difficult to encounter in the first place than the drunk guy about to stab you on the subway. I agree these are civic issues, not issues with public transportation. However I always get the impression that many ardent public transit advocates are the ones who are also resistant to cleaning up public transit so that it is more attractive. Yes, let's definitely work towards pro…

> The drunk guy about to T-bone you is more difficult to encounter in the first place than the drunk guy about to stab you on the subway. Statistically, he isn't. If drunks stabbed people on subways at the rate that drunks killed people with their cars, around 46 people would be stabbed on the US's subways each day. And that's killed with cars, not "permanently disabled or disfigured"; that rate is even higher. The p…

Unfortunately, you're not going to convince people by laying out statistics, otherwise you'd (you as in transit advocates, not you specifically) would have succeeded already.

What you need to do is address how people feel, and transit advocates have been doing a poor job at that in the US.

People feel safe in their cars. People feel unsafe on transit. I don't know why this perception deviates from reality, but it does. Maybe it's because in a car you have tons of steel surrounding you from the drunk driver, while in transit you have at best your clothes protecting you from the psycho.

Address this, and you will win over many people to transit. But again - I feel like most transit advocates are highly resistant to doing what needs to be done.

I have nothing against well run transit. I love taking the subways in Seoul, Tokyo, Hong Kong, and other cities where subways are ultraclean and nearly devoid of potentially dangerous individuals. I hate taking the NYC subways because almost every other day I encounter someone I feel wary being in the same car or station with.

You're simply not going to win over hearts and minds by stating the homeless guy in the subway car raving about some lunacy is completely harmless and you should just ignore him and let him be. Even if he is actually harmless beyond just stinking up the air and causing a nuisance.

Re: Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

#150

Post by pwinnski »

skybrian wrote: post #13
slaymaker1907 wrote: post #5

I always think it's weird how instead of just improving public transit, we've all become fixated on self driving vehicles. Good transit would mean most people don't need to operate a vehicle while having a plethora of other benefits like combating climate change and more efficient land use (if you live in a suburb, take note of the sheer amount land dedicated to parking; it's often more land than the store for retail…

It doesn't seem like all that many people are all that crazy about self-driving cars? It's a frequent topic of conversation because some companies have invested a lot of money in it. But people express fairly negative sentiments about it. Meanwhile, huge amounts of money is spent on improving mass transit. It's fairly conventional wisdom that it's a good thing. (The money doesn't seem to go very far though, compared…

I love that my current rental car (a Kia K5) has lane-keeping and collision-detection features. If it tried to label those "self-driving," I'd never use them.

I think you're right: companies like Uber and Tesla are pushing self-driving cars, but there isn't really popular support for them.

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