Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

Judging by the Russian and French revolutions, civil war isn't happening unless and until a lot of people are having trouble accessing food. IMHO the factors that sparked the US Civil War (extreme state independence, regional economics) are no longer relevant.

While the USA was once a true federation of sovereign states that really hasn't been the case since at least the Civil War, over 150 years ago. States depend heavily on the federal government for assistance, standardization, and regulation, and even depend on their neighbors for logistical support in various industries as well as energy and water.

For all its touted net-contribution to the federal budget California would not survive on its own, as it depends on electricity from other states and water from the Colorado River (a shared resource between several states). To be sure, California puts these shared resources to extremely productive use and pays back the value to its neighbors, but this kind of interdependence probably would not exist if California went rebel.

I think a lot of the commenters on this thread who are skeptical or dismissive don't really understand what a 'civil war' actually is or would be in a country the size of the United States. I believe this stems from the assumption of an improbable repeat of the American Civil War of the 1860s, which I agree with.

But a 'civil war' doesn't necessarily happen all at once, with a frontline, with conscription, etc.. It can happen slower, in separate places, with small skirmishes or only with 'occupying' a state legislature. It can also be fought with different weapons, for example electronic warfare and disinformation. With the latter in mind, some think it already started. You don't need North vs South or Left vs Right for a civil war. You need a group of 'rebels' vs the government and to some extent we kinda have this, considering that some of the 'rebels' are already part of the government and actively trying to topple it.

If you look at things from a different angle, for example the rise in extremist violence, the well organized (and well armed) far right groups, the various instances of local government refusing to enforce federal regulations, the repeated increasing 'states rights' arguments thrown around during high level political discussion (by elected officials) and elephant-in-the-room sized January 6 and the widespread loss of trust in government due to disenfranchisement, the infiltration of the far right fringes in law enforcement/military and even elected officials, the repeated secession bills proposed by idiots in eastern WA or Texas just for the purpose of getting people riled up, increasing income inequality, it's easy to see how things are going in the absolute wrong direction. Couple all of that with loss of income and you're gonna have a really bad time keeping the plebs in check. It's all 'Bread and circuses' until the bread supply chain is disrupted or the money to buy it becomes worthless.

But I'm optimistic because the people who actually run the country still want to make money and making money during something like a civil war is way harder. So something large scale will definitely not happen. I think we'll have a better chance to die in the 'water war' or just a heatwave than in any 'civil war' on US soil.

These panel surveys are reasonably good. The better pollsters (like Ipsos MORI) spend a decent amount of effort recruiting a broad sample of people for their panels, and results are statistically adjusted for non-response bias etc. That said, the usual problem with political polling (that you can only poll people willing to answer pollsters' questions) applies extra here, as all respondents have agreed to be part of a panel and be repeatedly surveyed. As most panels are done through the Internet, it's at least possible that the participants are more terminally online than the average American.

That said, I don't think the results are crazy, on their face (though I don't myself expect a civil war). There are a number of groups openly proposing political violence, increased partisan polarisation, and a breakdown in the normal political processes (Congress has been essentially non-functional for a while, the Supreme Court have taken a decidedly activist turn, state legislatures are actively discussing subverting the next Presidential election, and trust in politicians of all parties is at historical lows). It's not clear how these will be resolved, and a further increase in political violence is certainly a possibility. Will that amount to civil war? Not close, in my view, but we live in unusual political times.