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Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

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Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#141

Post by Johnny555 »

cm2187 wrote: post #68
shafyy wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Natural gas cannot be replaced by nuclear energy (or any other source of electricity) for many applications, at least not in the short term. For example here in Germany, many homes use gas boilers (heaters) for heating space and water. You would need to rebuild a lot of infrastructure to use electricity (which Germany plans to do, but obviously this will take years if not decades).

Electric heaters are cheap (it's just a glorified resistance). It's easy to switch home heating from gas to electric (with portable devices). Maybe not for every room but enough to survive a winter or two. Water heating is more complicated.

Resistance heaters are a very inefficient way to heat (yes, I know they are 100% efficient), and I wonder if the grid could handle a significant number of homes switching to electrical resistance heat?

Hopefully the government is already incentivizing switching to heat pumps, but that's not a quick solution.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#142

Post by 88840-8855 »

inglor_cz wrote: post #53
88840-8855 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there is no lng supply possible for Europe. you can frack as much as you want and ship as much as you want. the next 4 quarters will decide about the downfall of Europe (and ultimately the US).

"downfall of Europe" Go look at some photos of Europe immediately post WWII. Especially Poland and Germany. If we survived that and rose again from literal ashes, we won't be done in by one winter without Russian gas. This continent withstood a lot worse than a limited period of expensive heating.

I suggest the following:

those who support the vAlUeS should stop consuming ALL products from China and energy from Russia

those who dont care should get those products to normal prices

This is fair. Then we will see how many people actually support all this political bullshit.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#143

Post by lazide »

sdfhdhjdw3 wrote: post #115
ibeckermayer wrote: post #42

Related content "Trump: Germany 'Totally Controlled By Russia'" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LLZBVTid4I German bureaucrats laugh at Trump after he says the country could become totally dependent on Russian energy: https://twitter.com/marcusgilmer/status/1044604107997237249

What's the explanation for this? I mean, surely the explanation isn't that Trump is secretly a well informed and thoughtful person?

That he likes calling out an occasional hypocrite now and then, and is familiar with Russian power dynamics in the west?

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#144

Post by XorNot »

listless wrote: post #62
nisa wrote: post #18

To get some perspective why this is such a hotly debated topic - just got my heating bill for the last year - just a small 2 person flat in a small town - most flats in Germany are heated by gas one way or another - 700€/year with 5.2ct/kWh for 2021 - current market is more like 15ct/kWh and will probably rise. With the rise in rent prices in the last years this could push quite a bit of poor / lower middle class peo…

Serious question here - I swear I'm not trolling and I've been asking myself this same question...' Would you be fine with it if you were on the margin? I have this same attitude about inflation in the US and rising interest rates. Good - we need to get the situation under control. But I'm not living on the margin. It affects me, but not really. I'll be fine. So I don't really have any skin in the game here. Not yet.

The current problem in Germany is/was their political class is slow-walking aid to Ukraine under the general idea that the war will end and "normal relations" with Russia will mean that the ridiculous dependence on foreign gas supplies can be continued.

The alternative question, the one which should be being handled right now though is what % of people need support, and how do you help without worsening the problem? How quickly can you install solar, batteries and air-sourced heat pumps? What financing scheme gets the best bang for buck while helping those least able to afford the market fluctuation?

The question isn't "would you be fine with it at the margin?" - because the only reason to ask it is to sidle up to "maybe we should appease the nazis/just kind of not think about the genocide" under the auspices of "well there was no other choice so it's not really an immoral one".

The much better question is one of political accountability: why was the country made so vulnerable to this situation? Why were the vulnerable in the country made the most susceptible to this situation? Why were the alternatives ignored? And why is bold action not being taken now to fix this?

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#145

Post by kuzuman »

cpursley wrote: post #72
nisa wrote: post #18

To get some perspective why this is such a hotly debated topic - just got my heating bill for the last year - just a small 2 person flat in a small town - most flats in Germany are heated by gas one way or another - 700€/year with 5.2ct/kWh for 2021 - current market is more like 15ct/kWh and will probably rise. With the rise in rent prices in the last years this could push quite a bit of poor / lower middle class peo…

Why are you and your friends okay with this? The increase in energy prices due to EU sanctions are making the Russian state fabulously wealthy right now. Russia has alternative customers, y'all don't have alternative suppliers. If the EU doesn't come to their senses and embrace realpolitik, they are looking at literal deindustrialization and a plunge into mass poverty and social unrest. BMWs aren't built nor homes he…

No post body was provided.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#146

Post by shafyy »

cm2187 wrote: post #68
shafyy wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Natural gas cannot be replaced by nuclear energy (or any other source of electricity) for many applications, at least not in the short term. For example here in Germany, many homes use gas boilers (heaters) for heating space and water. You would need to rebuild a lot of infrastructure to use electricity (which Germany plans to do, but obviously this will take years if not decades).

Electric heaters are cheap (it's just a glorified resistance). It's easy to switch home heating from gas to electric (with portable devices). Maybe not for every room but enough to survive a winter or two. Water heating is more complicated.

The heaters them themselves are cheap, but running them is not. I've done the calculation for my situation last year in Germany, and using the gas heating came out much cheaper (at least with gas prices last year). I think that's because most portable electric room heaters are not as efficient as the built in gas-based heaters. Does anyone know more about this topic?

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#147

Post by theplumber »

cpursley wrote: post #72
nisa wrote: post #18

To get some perspective why this is such a hotly debated topic - just got my heating bill for the last year - just a small 2 person flat in a small town - most flats in Germany are heated by gas one way or another - 700€/year with 5.2ct/kWh for 2021 - current market is more like 15ct/kWh and will probably rise. With the rise in rent prices in the last years this could push quite a bit of poor / lower middle class peo…

Why are you and your friends okay with this? The increase in energy prices due to EU sanctions are making the Russian state fabulously wealthy right now. Russia has alternative customers, y'all don't have alternative suppliers. If the EU doesn't come to their senses and embrace realpolitik, they are looking at literal deindustrialization and a plunge into mass poverty and social unrest. BMWs aren't built nor homes he…

We can do without energy from a rough state. We have 1-2 hard years ahead but I believe Europe will rebound stronger. It made no sense to have such close relationships with someone like Putin or be so dependent on fossil fuels. I take it as an opportunity for Europe and the whole world.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#148

Post by excieve »

nisa wrote: post #18

To get some perspective why this is such a hotly debated topic - just got my heating bill for the last year - just a small 2 person flat in a small town - most flats in Germany are heated by gas one way or another - 700€/year with 5.2ct/kWh for 2021 - current market is more like 15ct/kWh and will probably rise. With the rise in rent prices in the last years this could push quite a bit of poor / lower middle class peo…

As a Ukrainian, I sincerely thank you for writing this.

It is often disheartening to see how many people of HN don't realise what is happening (and, frankly, has been happening for 8 years) and then read cold opinions devoid of empathy. What is the compromise when the other side's goal is extermination?

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#149

Post by rolobio »

raverbashing wrote: post #69

My uninformed bet is that a) Russia likes money more and b) if they wanted to cut the delivery of gas they would have done it already They like playing the panic angle of course, and closing the tap once in a while, but I think it's mostly hot air

The Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Europe is currently off. Its a planned maintenance however. But what if they run into "issues" and the maintenance takes a few weeks? A month? Pure speculation of course, but these things do happen. I doubt they would keep it off forever, Putin likes Europe being dependent on him.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#150

Post by zambal »

88840-8855 wrote: post #28
toomuchtodo wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Constraint is a forcing function for ingenuity." Renewables are going to ramp, floating LNG import terminals are already en route (to add capacity to the existing 24 in EU countries), and industrial processes requiring LNG will make due with less or seek alternatives. Europe will place a small number of coal plants on temporary standby, and they will only add 1.3% to EU emissions annually, even in the worst-case sce…

How will renewables help this winter? All the stuff you describe are need at least 2 years. At least. Plus, they are expensive. Energy will come with a huge premium in Europe. This is the time that Putin needs to build the pipelines to other countries. Let us not forget that NOBODY is against the war: not a single South American, not any African country, not China, not India. This is a US/Canada/Europe/South Korea/Ja…

If (and that's a big if) Putin "finishes off" Ukraine, do you really think it's just back to normal for Europe/Russia relations?
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