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Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

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Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#141

Post by aeturnum »

dreamcompiler wrote: post #30
codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

Uber bet the company on robotaxis and lost. Tesla is still building very good cars that happen to not be able to drive themselves. Just like every other car. If they could lose their obsession with self-driving and just focus on their incredible cars, they'd still make money.

They are very much "default alive" BUT I get the sense that a lot of the company's plans and valuation are based on the idea that Tesla will not "just" produce competitive electric cars. They could make money just doing that - but they would never meet the expectations around their company's' trajectory that way and so they would be a "bad" investment (in ROI terms). So I think that everyone who is still working on the "more than a car maker" goal is going to insist the company will be more than that until they really can't.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#142

Post by mandeepj »

na85 wrote: post #101
caymanjim wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Clearly you live in a large city and find everything you want there.

I mean there's a reason for the slow and steady trend of North Americans leaving small towns for big cities.

> I mean there's a reason for the slow and steady trend of North Americans leaving small towns for big cities

I heard the other way - people leaving cities for suburbs

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#143

Post by 8jef »

ok_dad wrote: post #108
rightbyte wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you are describing is essentially railway system.

It’s almost as if we should invest in public transportation and try to reduce cars rather than make a train car for each individual!

But for people, in the same way as for parcels, power, cable, fiber-optic, there's the last mile problem. Europe has almost solved it with high speed trains and efficient city transit. Then, it solves nothing for all those folks living in rural areas and having to drive f-150s.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#144

Post by notJim »

rootusrootus wrote: post #112
dreamcompiler wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber bet the company on robotaxis and lost. Tesla is still building very good cars that happen to not be able to drive themselves. Just like every other car. If they could lose their obsession with self-driving and just focus on their incredible cars, they'd still make money.

> If they could lose their obsession with self-driving and just focus on their incredible cars, they'd still make money. They may want to think about that strategy soon. Model 3 is starting to seem dated (not to mention Model S, which is ten years old). There are very competitive alternatives on the market now that have strengths where Tesla is weak, and which are not especially weak in the areas Tesla is strong.

In what sense is the Model 3 seeming dated? It's still one of the best electric cars on important measures like range and efficiency. It also has access to hands down the best charging network and is well loved by its owners, despite the well-documented problems.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#145

Post by 8jef »

actionablefiber wrote: post #76
highwaylights wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if we just, you know, walk a bit more instead? Or even cycle? I hear great things.

The pattern of zoning and development that the U.S. has used for the past 70 years assumes that nobody wants to walk or cycle anywhere and that they feel so strongly about it that they want cities to be built such that people will die if they attempt to do so. I grew up in a neighborhood where the elementary school was about half a mile away... on the other side of a five lane highway with no crosswalk and no sidewal…

Good point

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#146

Post by MonkeyMalarky »

aidenn0 wrote: post #105
MonkeyMalarky wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A social one where you use experience to make inferences about what is going to happen next. Who hasn't observed an aggressive driver coming up from behind, weaving around other cars and said to themselves something like "that guy is going to cut me off, better ease off the gas so there's a little extra room in front for when he does". That level of situational awareness isn't coded for is it? Edit: I have a whole me…

Most self-driving vehicles aren't just coded; they incorporate some form of ML as well. Categorizing patterns of behaviors is well within the reach of ML algorithms, but my understanding is we have far more basic problems to solve first (Tesla's seems to struggle with object tracking over time, which would be a necessary first step to recognizing patterns).

Developing object tracking and a sense of object permanence would be a pretty big prerequisite.. And here I was thinking about the RL model needed to decide what to do in the presence of other agents.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#147

Post by 8jef »

mandeepj wrote: post #142
na85 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean there's a reason for the slow and steady trend of North Americans leaving small towns for big cities.

> I mean there's a reason for the slow and steady trend of North Americans leaving small towns for big cities I heard the other way - people leaving cities for suburbs

Suburbs needs to be close to big cities to be considered as such.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#148

Post by dham »

I've really gotten into self driving the past couple years. Watched every video I can find on it. Got a Toyota Rav 4 bought a Comma 2 then later a Comma 3. Really enjoy Comma AI as a product on the highway and some in town. That being said, self driving in city streets is a problem that literally doesn't exist. On highway you can relax, mostly because the car is keeping a straight line and not much is happening. As soon as a car is negotiating stop signs, doing turns, etc it stops being fun and relaxing and starts becoming anxiety inducing.

The only thing that needs to be solved fully is highway with auto lane change. That's literally it. And the system needs to do eye tracking like Comma Ai. If your adaptive cruise control makes you put your hand on the wheel it's useless.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#149

Post by learndeeply »

rafaelero wrote: post #35

It's fun to see everybody succumbing to scaling laws. We will only have FSD when we can run realtime inference with a huge model. No amount of creativity seems to overcome the fact that bigger is better. So, let's wait Moore's law do its job.

Unless you've demonstrated that FSD follows scaling laws, this comment is pretty meaningless.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#150

Post by adam_arthur »

dham wrote: post #148

I've really gotten into self driving the past couple years. Watched every video I can find on it. Got a Toyota Rav 4 bought a Comma 2 then later a Comma 3. Really enjoy Comma AI as a product on the highway and some in town. That being said, self driving in city streets is a problem that literally doesn't exist. On highway you can relax, mostly because the car is keeping a straight line and not much is happening. As s…

Yeah, it's kind of odd that so much effort is being put into city driving.

Just perfect highway driving first. Trucking alone would massively change if goods could be transported to edge of urban areas autonomously.

I'm sure it's being worked on too, but puzzling why that use case is not priority 1, 2 and 3

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