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Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns

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141–150 of 279 posts

Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns

#141

Wish it had the 70s, or ideally, the whole 20th century. The 80s-2010s has been a period of unusually low inflation and consistent market returns, buoyed by the end of the Cold War and entry of the developing world into the world economy. There's a good chance that we revert to the mean going forwards and see much more geopolitical instability and resource constraints.

IIRC the book ‘Common Sense on Mutual Funds’ has data going that far back with charts. I believe the period from the start of the 20th century until the 70s had similar inflation adjusted returns. However, for the early data I think it was really just measuring the largest companies in the country that made up the original Dow. Although, the author argues that’s a fine comparison because the 30 largest companies in the country represent the large majority of the top 500 index in terms of cap today— he further argues that over the long term small cap and large cap stocks give similar returns regardless.

Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns

#142

Wish it had the 70s, or ideally, the whole 20th century. The 80s-2010s has been a period of unusually low inflation and consistent market returns, buoyed by the end of the Cold War and entry of the developing world into the world economy. There's a good chance that we revert to the mean going forwards and see much more geopolitical instability and resource constraints.

So, what does a young person do these days? First few years out of college were just "max out 401k contributions into some target fund" + build emergency fund, but now that I've amassed more cash than what an emergency fund requires, what does one do? Originally, my plan was to use it for a house down-payment, but with the mortgage rates having nearly doubled in the last 6 months, that's kind of out of the question a…

Born too late to buy 20k House. Born just in time for 20k Bitcoin.

Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns

#143
post #114

At a glance this seems to show that bonds are in a historic drawdown. Can anyone ELI5 the implications of that?

As with any unprecedented economic phenomena, the full implications are unknown.

For one thing, people retiring right now, who followed the best practice of shifting their portfolio towards bonds, are seeing millions wiped out from their individual retirement accounts.

For a huge amount of would-be retirees, this is the difference between being able to afford retirement and being forced to remain in the workforce in the last years of their lives.

Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns

#144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't buy a house until the real estate market crashes. Then buy. I bought a fixer-upper in 2008 for 200k; sold it for 425k 5 years later. Recently it sold for 650k (we still get redfin notifications.) In the meantime I bought a house for 625k (nice house with some rough edges) and sold it 18 months ago in covid real estate madness for 950k. We certainly put money into both houses over time, but we'd never have been…

What if the house market crashes in 10 years? Live in a car for 10 years?

[deleted]

Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A change in preferences from holding dollar reserves to holding stocks could change the value of the USD, that's what I am saying.

Except that you've got a Federal Reserve actively ensuring that there aren't too many (or too few) dollars in circulation for the level of interest rate they want to maintain. They do it by buying and selling bonds rather than stocks, but the principle is the same. So we don't have to worry about shifts in portfolio preferences leading to an unexpected oversupply or undersupply of dollars But more people wanting to h…

Maintaining an interest rate isn't the same as maintaining a fixed rate of CPI growth, especially not in the short run.

Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns

#146
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

House prices are at a peak and stocks are in a trough. Try to make clear economic decisions and don't be enamored with home ownership. A house is a huge illiquid asset that you can live in. There's calculators out there to use but know that buying a house usually only makes sense if you're definitely staying for at least 10 years. And don't be swayed by headlines. Big tech is doing extremely well and isn't slowing do…

The only time stocks have been this expensive was just before the great depression and just before 2008. They are practically the most overvalued they've ever been, ignoring the last year or two of QE, which were intuitively overpriced. Thinking they are cheap now is how you get burned.

By what metric? The P/E ration for the S&P 500 is not historically very high right now.

Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

BACKEND: It's about 3000 lines of Crystal code https://crystal-lang.org/ -- it's been an absolute dream to program in. Ruby-like syntax, statically compiled performance. Nice standard library. Would recommend :) Performance == caching Local ephemeral filesystem for shortest-term caching. Redis for shared medium-term caching and locking. S3-compatible object storage for longest-term caching (for raw data feeds pulled…

uPlot spotted in the wild! <3

uPlot is great! Thank you for building it! :)

Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns

#148
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean the value of the dollar as measured by the CPI.

You do mean that, but it doesn't have a lot of bearing on the correctness of your argument. I suspect you've assumed that wealth is neither created or destroyed somewhere in your logic, because what you are saying would make sense if that was an assumption. But that would be a poor assumption if you've made it. CPI is a tool for adjusting the value of a dollar, but it doesn't have any bearing on the value of the tota…

There are three charts on the linked website - bonds, dollars and stocks. None of them are exactly measures of wealth. My question is about how their properties as mutual numeraires could allow them to all fall at the same time.

Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, what does a young person do these days? First few years out of college were just "max out 401k contributions into some target fund" + build emergency fund, but now that I've amassed more cash than what an emergency fund requires, what does one do? Originally, my plan was to use it for a house down-payment, but with the mortgage rates having nearly doubled in the last 6 months, that's kind of out of the question a…

Don't buy a house until the real estate market crashes. Then buy. I bought a fixer-upper in 2008 for 200k; sold it for 425k 5 years later. Recently it sold for 650k (we still get redfin notifications.) In the meantime I bought a house for 625k (nice house with some rough edges) and sold it 18 months ago in covid real estate madness for 950k. We certainly put money into both houses over time, but we'd never have been…

> Wait a year or two.

The real estate market won't crash, and it especially won't crash in high-demand areas (Southern California, the Bay Area, Atlanta, SoFlo, Colorado, etc.). We'll likely see a steep-ish correction in "second-tier" markets, like the ones in Texas, Tennessee, and the Rust Belt (Pittsburgh comes to mind).

Re: Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns

#150
post #127

This period has been very special because of the 401k, which is itself part of the growth story of the corporate legal structure. I think this is coming to an end. Corporate boards and officers no longer represent the best long-term interests of the companies and shareholders they represent. It’s also a very precarious legal status as an arbitrary judicial ruling can make or break a company. Finally, and perhaps most…

> People tithe and sacrifice to their church for a promise of rewards in the afterlife.

could you strengthen your argument by omitting casual broad-brush explanations of religion, please?

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