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Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

nature.com

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Re: Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

#141

Post by School-Cotton »

ainiriand wrote: post #119
IG_Semmelweiss wrote: post #16

If you ever wonder what el nino /la nina means in terms of weather for your hemisphere, here is a heuristic: La niña is the opposite of el Niño. El niño (spanish - "the boy") is the name used by inhabitants of the area it hits the hardest, South America (mostly spanish speaking). The western part of South America has its usual rainy season from late Dec to April. The "el nino" boy is a reference to birth of Jesus. Ch…

El niño -> the kid. El chico -> the boy.

What’s the difference between “boy” and “[male] kid” ?

Re: Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

#142

Post by chimprich »

DoreenMichele wrote: post #103

The most important point: Some researchers argue that the record is simply too sparse to show clearly what is going on, or that there is too much natural variability in the system for researchers to spot long-term trends. But it could also be that the IPCC models are missing something big. In spite of all the hand-wringing about Global Warming -- which should more accurately be called climate change -- we don't know…

> The actual data sets don't go back as far as most people imagine

How far do you imagine they go back?

Re: Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

#143

Post by DoreenMichele »

chimprich wrote: post #142
DoreenMichele wrote: post #103

The most important point: Some researchers argue that the record is simply too sparse to show clearly what is going on, or that there is too much natural variability in the system for researchers to spot long-term trends. But it could also be that the IPCC models are missing something big. In spite of all the hand-wringing about Global Warming -- which should more accurately be called climate change -- we don't know…

> The actual data sets don't go back as far as most people imagine How far do you imagine they go back?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27658488

Re: Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

#144

Post by formerkrogemp »

vdo wrote: post #140

In Anchorage, Alaska we’ve had less than an inch of rain in the last 41 days. We had a 13-acre wildfire in a park in town yesterday that they estimate they can’t fully extinguish for a few days. Statewide, over one million acres have burned so far this season. It is crazy dry and hot.

Your state is just catching up to California, Utah, Oregon, and others. Less rain, no controlled burns, insufficient resources for land management (clearing brush, etc.), Higher temperatures, and now you have a recipe for disaster. I'm sorry for your loss.

Re: Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

#145

Post by chimprich »

DoreenMichele wrote: post #143
chimprich wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The actual data sets don't go back as far as most people imagine How far do you imagine they go back?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27658488

How far do you think "most people imagine" they go back?

I suspect most people actually underestimate how much historical climate knowledge we have.

E.g. ice cores providing knowledge from hundreds of thousands years.

Re: Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

#146

Post by steve_adams_86 »

cinntaile wrote: post #132
steve_adams_86 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I follow an Australian hydroponic gardener and general tinkerer on YouTube named Hoocho and he has documented a bit of the mess the weather has caused lately. It’s extremely disheartening. One thing he noticed is that the water has pushed ants to find new places to live (including his growing enclosure, where they’ve made a home in his electrical box), and they’ve brought aphids to farm along with them. Obviously thi…

Are those 3D printed plastics food-grade?

People consider PLA filament food grade, but the only plastics touching nutrients or plants are explicitly rated as food grade.

I don’t worry as much about the exposure to PLA so much as I worry about the layer adhesion being poor and causing build ups of bacteria or disease that I can’t clean out of my system.

Re: Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

#147

Post by formerkrogemp »

c1sc0 wrote: post #53
losteric wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What do you expect the Feds to do about the weather? Intervene and rebalance the water markets, which are currently unsustainable based on bad decades-old science.

Geoengineering. I know that if they won’t do it someone will. Iron fertilization in particular looks cheap enough to try at the non-state level.

Do you even know what you're talking about? Are you referring to iron rust being randomly distributed in the ocean or along the coast? All that will do is cause an algal bloom and die off, killing off even more of the depleted marine life. That won't sequester any carbon, at best 0.05% if you do it in a way that forms the sediment. Otherwise, you're just killing what little marine life is left for giggles.

Re: Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

#148

Post by formerkrogemp »

astrange wrote: post #35
ianai wrote: post #3

Really starting to feel dangerous to live anywhere in the US southwest. Lake Meade approaching deadpool and massive wildfire nearing my house this summer. Plus the government is led by people who refer to much of the southwest as “fly over country” doesn’t help.

Isn't flyover country Kansas, not Arizona?

Not in the future it won't be.

Re: Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

#149

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

htlion wrote: post #115
PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agriculture typically uses 75-80% of the water in southwestern states. Residential is around 7% (similar to losses from evaporation). Residential per-capita use has been declining for decades. Agricultural use per acre or flat or rising. Stopping development has little to do with the water issues in the SW (it might still be a good idea, but this is not the main reason why)

Residential is only 7% if you put the burden on the producer (agriculture) and not the consumer (people). Every time that such numbers are shared, most people quickly jumps to "farmers should pay more attention / switch cultures". Very rarely someone will talk about the impacts: a change of diet for consumers, most likely with less meat (though depends on the area). It is easy to assume that the water you consume onl…

Not really.

I live in NM. The agriculture sector here produces less than 8% of both the calories and pounds of food consumed within the state. Most of the beef production in NM is exported out of state (and country).

So if the "burden is on the consumer", it's on people who don't live in US southwest, and that has to stop. The fever dreams of the 1930s/40s bureau of reclamation have done so much damage.

Re: Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely

#150

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #80
PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agriculture typically uses 75-80% of the water in southwestern states. Residential is around 7% (similar to losses from evaporation). Residential per-capita use has been declining for decades. Agricultural use per acre or flat or rising. Stopping development has little to do with the water issues in the SW (it might still be a good idea, but this is not the main reason why)

I agree with you regarding the ratios you mention. Importantly, the Colorado River Compact was established during an atypically wet cycle, and even with ag reductions, I’d argue no additional pressure should be placed on the watershed due to long duration droughts becoming more frequent. We might yet have to bring water from elsewhere, no further pressure should be incurred.

The CRT was established after an atypically wet cycle, by people who were decidedly incurious about long term precipitation patterns.

http://www.inkstain.net/fleck/2022/01/a-lack-of-curiosity-ab...

We would barely have to cut agricultural use in order to completely cover the water needs of doubling the entire population of the US southwest. Yes, surface and ground water sources are "stressed", but residential use is only going to get more and more efficient on a per-capita basis. Even though growing population creates more absolute need, in as world where agriculture is flood-irrigating fields or spray irrigating alfalfa (losing an outrageous amount to evaporation), we should start with the "easy" problems first. Pay farmers to install drip systems, for a start.

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