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Getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

80000hours.org

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Re: Getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

#141

Weird take. Sure, you could try to re-build what you had before the apocalypse. Or you could build a new world that isn't the one that just plunged everything into chaos. If our technology wasn't so good, the world wouldn't be as populated, we wouldn't need so many resources, there wouldn't be so many ways to poison the earth, and the earth would be habitable and sustainable for millennia. After the apocalypse, I wan…

This may be the right place to mention that the comment in the article, "But the photovoltaic cells we use today need pure silicon, and nanoscale manufacturing — essentially the same technology as microchips used in a computer — so actually making solar panels would be incredibly difficult." is incorrect.

One needs only modestly pure silicon and no nanoscale tech at all. You can make photovoltaic cells with a small furnace and a couple of rather basic inorganic chemicals. Patterning for diffusion masking can be done with wax applied by hand.

You do need some electricity, so steam power or biodiesel would be necessary at first. You will need to run scavenged vacuum pumps and induction heaters to create the silicon ingots and zone refine them. You will need to conduct some basic inorganic chemistry and be able to produce the key industrial acids and bases.

Edit: you will need to recreate Pyrex glass and be able to form it into tubes and chemical glassware.

Re: Getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The worry is overblown. Oil is still used all over the place because it's cheaper than the alternative. When it's not, it'll be replaced. You can straight up synthesize an oil analog from biological sources, and even if you couldn't the oil necessary for non-energy purposes is far far less than that used just to burn. Solar is what is going to replace fossil fuels mostly, it's already cheaper than coal. Like it or no…

There are no viable replacements for fossil fuels for a tremendous number of uses. There is currently no plausible way that, for example, long-distance flights could run entirely off solar. Your economic analysis of > Oil is still used all over the place because it's cheaper than the alternative. has no contradiction with prices skyrocketing. Fossil gasoline might get to $20/ or $50/gallon before it's more expensive…

Viable non-fossil replacement for jet fuel: synthetic kerosene made from various biological sources. Approved for 50% blend on commercial aircraft, some older things depend on fossil components but a very fixable problem if it came to it.

https://aviationbenefits.org/environmental-efficiency/climat...

These guys claim an estimate of $3-4 per gallon (pre-tax and pre-distribution) for synthetic gasoline. Not 20 or $50 per gallon. https://carbonengineering.com/air-to-fuels/

> "Somewhat more expensive" fertilizer means more expensive food, which means starving people, which is horrible on its own, but which could also create a very dangerous political situation.

It really is only somewhat more expensive. Because of natural gas nonsense, the price of nitrogen fertilizer tripled ( https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2022/... ) and is still getting used, we're talking about a moderate increase in price to switch from methane hydrogen in the amonia-from-air process to electrolyzed water sourced hydrogen.

Lots of nonsense based fearmongering goes around, the actual solutions are sure to exist and don't involve doomsday, but moderate price increases (and probably once they scale, price reductions)

Re: Getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

#143
post #87

Weird take. Sure, you could try to re-build what you had before the apocalypse. Or you could build a new world that isn't the one that just plunged everything into chaos. If our technology wasn't so good, the world wouldn't be as populated, we wouldn't need so many resources, there wouldn't be so many ways to poison the earth, and the earth would be habitable and sustainable for millennia. After the apocalypse, I wan…

The problem isn't technology. The problem is immoral people. Immoral people make immoral and greedy governments. Immoral and greedy governments wield power to acquire more and survive as a parasitic organism. All governments move towards totalitarianism. No nation-state in the world has ever escaped this eventuality. Limiting technology won't limit the harm even one evil person can do. Take a look at Gengis Khan, for…

  > The problem isn't technology. The problem is immoral people.
i think you are underestimating the power of your tools (technology) to shape you instead of the other way around... might be a good idea to read up on Marshal McLuhan and Neil Postman to get an idea what technologies and systems can do to us (as humans)

  > The reason Western culture has fared so well over the last 500 years is because it was largely Christian in nature. There are fundamental values embedded in the Bible that have echoed into what we consider to be "human rights" today. These ideas are uniquely Christian in nature, and rely on a Christian morality in order to function.
human rights came from the bible? got any proof for that claim?

Re: Getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

#144
post #9

If I were to take one book with me "down into the bunker," as Dartnell puts it, I'd hands-down take with me the Bosch Automotive Handbook[0], a phenomenally dense and thorough text covering not just cars, but their constituent parts--and their constituent parts' constituent parts--all the way down to the materials. It has wonderful tables of data on the properties of various materials (from advanced plastics and allo…

Is this handbook still relevant in modern cars? I feel the new cars have so many hidden panels and electronics that you’re not expected to fiddle with the insides.

in a post-apocalyptic world, building an outdated suboptimal car is still better than not having the car at all.

I really wonder how practical this is though. The bicycle, for example, dates back to da Vinci, but we only became good enough at manufacturing to make the precise parts needed by the 19th century. having the diagrams is all well and good but we will also have lost the means of manufacturing reliably and that is going to be pretty tough to replicate.

Re: Getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

#145
post #90

Key element is probably less technology, and more social/political/religious unity. You need a stable and egalitarian social fabric to make consistent progress. Core beliefs: rebooting civilization is hard but will make everything better (promised land), here's the scientific method and why it works, here's how to setup and maintain a democratic nation state, here's how to incentivize and reward inventors. Here's fas…

Why is this getting downvoted? A stable society is an absolute must, and that means a group of people who have a common moral foundation. Else, how do we work together?

There’s a mixture of universal features of how societies work well and political fashion. The parochialism is annoying.

Re: Getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

#146
post #29

Weird take. Sure, you could try to re-build what you had before the apocalypse. Or you could build a new world that isn't the one that just plunged everything into chaos. If our technology wasn't so good, the world wouldn't be as populated, we wouldn't need so many resources, there wouldn't be so many ways to poison the earth, and the earth would be habitable and sustainable for millennia. After the apocalypse, I wan…

> can dig wells, practice permaculture, organize a farm, keep sheep, spin yarn, blacksmith, prep lumber, fire pottery and glass, hunt, fish, manage woodlands I'm very confused by why you think this is sustainable - this type of life uses FAR FAR FAR more resources than modern living. It only works with a low population. England for example basically cut down every tree it has in order to sustain this type of (old) li…

> It only works with a low population.

That’s the point. Killing lots of people lowers the population, but it doesn’t stay low. Over time, the population will always approach the carrying capacity, so the only way to permanently lower the population is to make the carrying capacity lower.

Re: Getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

#147
post #9

If I were to take one book with me "down into the bunker," as Dartnell puts it, I'd hands-down take with me the Bosch Automotive Handbook[0], a phenomenally dense and thorough text covering not just cars, but their constituent parts--and their constituent parts' constituent parts--all the way down to the materials. It has wonderful tables of data on the properties of various materials (from advanced plastics and allo…

Is this handbook still relevant in modern cars? I feel the new cars have so many hidden panels and electronics that you’re not expected to fiddle with the insides.

Looking at the 11th edition it has chapters on Adaptive Cruise Control, Lane Assistance and Infrared Night Vision Systems.

Pretty sure it covers modern cars fairly well.

Re: Getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

#149
post #148

I'm always entertained by the optimism of the people who think they'll be the ones to survive.

Well, if you are dead, your actions are not going to change anything (because you won't be performing any actions). So if you are going to plan, you can only plan for the case where you survive

Re: Getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

#150

An aside, but the title sounds like the premise of Asimov's Foundation series. Highly recommended, I thoroughly enjoyed reading all three books.

I thought exactly this when reading the article. I found this comment by searching for "Foundation" in the comments section.

Maybe humanity needs a real Foundation in these times.

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