Not really it's just crashing because there is derisking going on due to the unstable period we are experiencing along with the upcoming rate hikes, so to me it looks like there is going to be a comeback and no one will learn anything.
Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
141–150 of 670 posts
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
#142It's a Macro crash. SP500 is down -%5 YTD. Meta -37%, Netflix -65%. Lots of pain spreading. You shouldn't gloat or be happy. Give it a couple of more months like this, and lots of the HN audience would be worried about layoffs. The security of your average software developer job is strongly tied to market cycles. If you want a place to direct your hate and bitterness, I would do it at the architects of the BOOM/BUSTS…
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Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
#143Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, that's true of commodities generally. They are worth what people will pay for them; they do not produce cash flows. A pile of copper is not productive either. The fair criticism, I suppose, is that the "compelling reasons" a person might pay for a pile of copper are much more numerous than for gold (or bitcoin). But, OK: think of fine art for a moment... it is also an unproductive asset, the value of which depen…
I don’t think that’s the point. Copper and most other commodities are productive under Buffet’s definition because you put them into pipes and other things. They are manufacturing inputs. Their price is set by the demand for the things that you make with them. Housing demand goes up => copper price goes up. Gold is used in manufacturing but not as much as it could be, because the price is set much higher by speculati…
So I suppose when Buffett purchased 130 million ounces of silver in 1998 he was thinking about the manufacturing inputs?
I do think there is in fact a "productive use" for cyptocurrency, which is transacting on the dark web. It has been earnestly used as a currency in that context for a very long time... it's just that bitcoin boosters would rather not talk about it.
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
#144It's a Macro crash. SP500 is down -%5 YTD. Meta -37%, Netflix -65%. Lots of pain spreading. You shouldn't gloat or be happy. Give it a couple of more months like this, and lots of the HN audience would be worried about layoffs. The security of your average software developer job is strongly tied to market cycles. If you want a place to direct your hate and bitterness, I would do it at the architects of the BOOM/BUSTS…
Boom & bust cycles seem to be a built in “feature” of market economies. The architects are not trying to create booms and busts per se, but they are trying to manage them so they aren’t as devastating as 1929.
Whereas permanent poverty is a built in feature of non-market economies. Seems like an easy choice to make.
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
#145Earlier quoted context omitted.
As soon as it was clear that Bitcoin was going to be a commodity instead of a currency (why use it as a currency to buy a pizza this week when it could buy you a car next week?), it was clear it was now a pyramid scheme. That's why I didn't invest in it. What I hadn't counted on was how gullible people were for pyramid schemes.
I'm not clear on the logic here to be perfectly honest, even if I broadly agree that the real innovation with Bitcoin died when it was clear it would never be a currency. But gold is also a commodity, and I don't think I've ever heard it called a pyramid scheme.
A commodity is a raw material that has a wide amount of utility in creating different products. Corn become corn oil, ethanol, cornstarch, etc. Gold becomes jewelry, computer chips, electrical connectors.
Crypto isn’t so much a commodity as a collectible like a stamp or a beanie baby.
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
#146I’m really excited about it, I do take issue with people still not knowing what parts of crypto aren’t crashing and are working very well. To me that still seems intentional, but at the very least its annoying. People dont know why “Magic Internet Money” - a stablecoin - is a meta-meme on re-appropriated skepticism of all crypto while being designed decently well, much better than TerraLuna (overcollateralized, compa…
What do you think are the best investment play for a decade right now in the crypto market?
Hmmm
Well money isn't leaving the crypto space, its just in other more resilient stablecoins, so its ready to pounce or “ape-in” to anything at a moment’s notice. USDC and Tether have still $130billion collectively issued. Not moving much up or down.
In which case, popular things that sold off are still worth watching. I usually miss the bottom hoping for a steeper sell off.
Look for things that extract value, and accrue it to the token.
A cross-chain flash loan bot that shares with its community of stakers (distinct from and a subset of the token holders) could be fun. I haven't really seen one that shared.
Yield optimizers are still unperfected. Opportunity to compete with a better one there, that also involves the community better.
A decade is too hard for me.
But Helium had some cheap prices and their wireless network is robust enough with all the pieces coming into places for a recurring demand model to kick in.
Node software needs much improvement. But this is slow because there isnt a compensation path at the moment, a couple gitcoin grants have gone out that have resulted in major improvements, more likely that FAANGs will start doing contributions to node software, which will be the compensation path for developers as employment.
Lots of stuff on the private equity side, if you really want longer cycles and possibility of cashing out into a more mature financial market with regulated registered shares. Bear markets are the best time to build because your investors will leave you alone. As an investor you can make more onerous conditions to companies raising.
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
#147I have been sitting on cash since end of last year, I am finally seeing opportunities to buy at reasonable price: stocks and crypto.
Stocks, cryptos, houses: people kept buying no matter the price, even though, it was so obvious that those prices were not sustainable.
And we are finally seeing a proper correction. I think, houses are next in line.
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
#148Earlier quoted context omitted.
As soon as it was clear that Bitcoin was going to be a commodity instead of a currency (why use it as a currency to buy a pizza this week when it could buy you a car next week?), it was clear it was now a pyramid scheme. That's why I didn't invest in it. What I hadn't counted on was how gullible people were for pyramid schemes.
I wish we had a better phrase than "pyramid scheme", because IMO anything that's a "scheme" has people who know better at one end, and I really don't think there's anyone involved in crypto that is deliberately "winning". What's a phrase for when everyone is getting scammed, and not by any one person, but by an idea? Where there are no winners, only lucky and unlucky. Pyramid trap? Pyramid quagmire? IDK, but "scheme"…
I think "crypto meme scheme" or something to that effect
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
#149Crypto and other speculative assets are reasonable investments when inflation and interest rates are low - this allows toleration of high risk profiles. When inflation/interest rates rise, theres generally a cash exodus to safer assets. Monetary policy for the past decade has made it "reasonable" to take a much more risky portfolio stance, that situation has changed, and everyone is realizing it at about the same tim…
I am inclined to disagree on the reasonable part, I have a feeling that the difference between cryptocurrencies and say stocks or commodities is a difference in kind not a difference in degree.
Sure when there is risk appetite again cryptocurrencies will rebound along with other risky instruments.
But I just can't shake the feeling that cryptocurrencies in general is just a huge pyramid scheme.
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
#150I would just invest once it recovers again.