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U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

wsj.com

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Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#141

Post by germinalphrase »

gsibble wrote: post #97
germinalphrase wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That cohort is still a numerical minority and while they may own the majority of civilian firearms, the United States government absolutely owns the majority of effective weapons. That said, calling the potential conflict a “domestic insurgency” is not much of a comfort compared to “civil war” even if the former is unlikely to be an existential threat to the country.

According to studies, it only takes 3.5% of a population revolting to foment a successful revolution. I'd argue we're approaching that figure. Might take a few more years, but I could see it in the US in our lifetimes. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35...

I’m skeptical. For one example - more than 3.5 percent of the Hong Kong population showed up for a single protest, but the leviathan power still prevailed.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#142

Post by monkeynotes »

lumost wrote: post #40
bko wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We've encouraged everyone to lever out as far as possible Household debt to GDP has gone down since the low interest rate environment kicked off in 2010. Same is true for household debt as a percentage of personal income. Although I will note that its debt payments, not absolute amount of debt and obviously lower rates lower the interest portion of debt payments. I agree there is something troubling going on but it…

There are many troubling things happening at the moment. From a US centric point of view. - Inflation is at it's highest since the 1970s in the US - There is a large military conflict in Europe. - There are shortages of chips, energy, and food on the horizon. - Unprofitable growth stocks have valuations as high as 100:1 on revenue. - There is increasing militarized tension on many portions of the global supply chain…

Let's not forget COVID is not done yet. We've had two years of restrictions and now it seems like folks are behaving as if it's over. Mutations are propagating and yet most people are out and about without masks and the dialog around vaccines has all but dried up.

The ongoing confusion about what this disease's risk factor is worrisome. First I think people have much more distrust in science and government. There is still a deep divide amongst the population and I am concerned about how we will handle another wave of restrictions whilst the economy buckles and a global war is on the horizon.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#143

Post by floor2 »

lumost wrote: post #92
altacc wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From a non-US perspective, it seems that a lot of Americans are quick to conclude that a civil war is around the corner, even on HN where one would hope for a more nuanced analysis. There can't be that many boogaloo boys on this forum, so I wonder how common this narrative is in the US at the moment to make it a go-to conclusion. Is it really common to hear talk of this in the US? From what I see of human nature, mos…

The January 6th event brought tensions to a high point, and caused many Americans on the liberal side to rethink how they approach those on the right. The event left many Americans fearful of a violent attempt to subvert the democratic process, with those on the right believing that their votes weren't counted. With a paralyzed legislative body, tensions are likely to grow in the future as the government fails to del…

My optimistic take is that Jan 6th is actually the counterbalancing act that will lead to a less violent future.

Throughout much of 2020, both the dominant media narratives and political leaders of the Democrats were very supportive of violence during the BLM movement. Riots and looting were legitimized as "the voice of the unheard", threats of more violence if key court decisions didn't go the desired way were made by prominent leaders and were tolerated or encouraged by the mainstream media, corporate America essentially "gave in to the terrorists" and did anything necessary to avoid being targeted.

And then Jan 6th happened, and all of us on the left suddenly realized that the other side might start using violence to achieve their goals too. It was a scary wake-up call that maybe we should focus on peaceful progress within the existing democratic framework instead of the "boots on the street making demands" approach we had found so successful.

Without the encouragement and approval of violent means from senators and CNN anchors for months during the racial justice protests, there's no Jan 6th event. As long as the leaders go to a "no violence" messaging instead of a "violence is necessary and acceptable when these groups do it" I think we'll have a peaceful 2024.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#144

Post by ultra_nick »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #140

It’s always good to remind people that: GDP ~= Population * Productivity If your population growth flat-lines (which it did last year), productivity has to compensate. Can productivity compensate if the average age is getting older (people tend to be less productive after a certain median age)? One reason investing in index funds makes sense is the underlying assumption that global population growth keeps increasing…

GDP per capita seems like a more useful metric for domestic use.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#145

Post by LatteLazy »

recursivedoubts wrote: post #9

Shows just how sensitive our economy is to small interest rate fluctuations, having lived around the zero bound for over a decade. We've encouraged everyone to lever out as far as possible while at the same time making real production more and more difficult (or, during the early lock downs, impossible) and, well, the long run is here. Keynes was right: he's dead. Unfortunately, we, and our children, are not.

Remember, going from 0.25% to 0.5% is a tiny, 0.25% changes. But it's also a DOUBLING of the rate...

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#146

Post by nightski »

lumost wrote: post #40
bko wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We've encouraged everyone to lever out as far as possible Household debt to GDP has gone down since the low interest rate environment kicked off in 2010. Same is true for household debt as a percentage of personal income. Although I will note that its debt payments, not absolute amount of debt and obviously lower rates lower the interest portion of debt payments. I agree there is something troubling going on but it…

There are many troubling things happening at the moment. From a US centric point of view. - Inflation is at it's highest since the 1970s in the US - There is a large military conflict in Europe. - There are shortages of chips, energy, and food on the horizon. - Unprofitable growth stocks have valuations as high as 100:1 on revenue. - There is increasing militarized tension on many portions of the global supply chain…

I'm sure many of us saw the GDP numbers this morning and thought - finally some data that makes sense!

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#147

Post by SubiculumCode »

I hate this title. It makes it seem to people that our economy shrank when in fact, it just grew bigger less fast. To me its just as egregious as headlines saying that inflation in April is 7% or whatever, leading the less informed to think that inflation grew by 7% in a single month, not on an annual basis.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#148

Post by JumpCrisscross »

“The report is more an illustration of how GDP calculations tend to be volatile from quarter to quarter, not necessarily indicating weakness in the economy or a sign of recession. The contraction was due to a jump in imports and a drop in exports, coupled with a slower buildup of businesses’ stockpiles. On a year-over-year basis, the economy grew 3.6%.

Together, trade and inventories subtracted about 4 percentage points from headline growth. Government spending shrank, also weighing on GDP. But real final sales to domestic purchasers, a measure of underlying demand that strips out the trade and inventories components, accelerated to a 2.6% annualized rate.“ [1]

In case you’re wondering why the market is blowing this off while the Wall Street Journal and, I presume, CNBC, are blowing it up.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-28/u-s-econo...

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#149

Post by francisofascii »

chottocharaii wrote: post #81
taylodl wrote: post #55

The fact the Fed is even contemplating a rate hike tells me they're misreading what's going on. The inflation we're seeing isn't a result of a hot economy needing to be kept in check, it's the fact that 40% of China's production is on lockdown and just about every product made, regardless of where it's made, is relying on part(s) coming from China. Supply is constrained and therefore prices are rising. Likewise, supp…

All inflation is a direct consequence of monetary policy

Monetary policy is a factor, but definitely not the only factor. Supply shock inflation is pretty common throughout history.
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