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What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

reuters.com

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Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#141

Post by caeril »

slavoingilizov wrote: post #13

Many conflicting viewpoints here. Sure, there's been less of a push from Russia than everyone expected, but it's not like Ukraine controls the sky either. Are Ukranians really still flying? If that was the case, the mentioned 40-mile convoy heading to Kiev would have been hit by now, no? Russians driving vehicles bumper to bumper shows VERY strong confidence that they own the sky, so things might not be as rosy for U…

If there's one thing Russia is very good at, it's surface to air defense.

They've screwed so much of this operation thus far, but I bet you that good chunks of that column consist of Tunguskas and Tors, and the Ukrainians know it.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#142

Post by guynamedloren »

guyromm wrote: post #42

I believe they were working under the assumption it would be a walk in the park, once the central government was captured or killed. To strengthen this assumption here's a canned article which was likely meant to be published had things gone according to plan, but pulled, since they hadn't. https://web.archive.org/web/20220226224717/https://ria.ru/20... RIA is a state owned news agency. Why precisely they thought the…

Thanks for sharing. That article is disorienting! How'd you find it?

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#143

Post by watwut »

_pd19 wrote: post #105
watwut wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They expected to win quickly and easily - and are shocked it did not happened. Whether they pull the punches will be seen later. Historically, there was not much holding back punches between Russia and Ukraine. You may start reading about Holodomor, which is still debated whether it counts as genocide or not. For that matter, historically, Russia holding punches was not exactly the thing. Not even toward Russians. Th…

So many mis-statements of fact here. > They expected to win quickly and easily - and are shocked it did not happened. Very possible, but neither you nor me are in the position to know that. > Holodomor, which is still debated whether it counts as genocide or not. For that matter, historically, Russia holding punches was not exactly the thing. Not even toward Russians. The Holodomor was clearly a completely orthogonal…

Holodomor is relevant, ot orthogonal.

I meant purgers, internal thing toward Russians.

Oh, and yes, 2011 to 2015 is long time of escalations.

The question is whether they will pull punches when ennemy don't give up.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#144

Post by selectodude »

whimsicalism wrote: post #57
boc wrote: post #50

I think we need to consider the possibility that much of the Russian army only existed on paper, and that the true strength was overinflated by trickling up good news only throughout all ranks of the military.[1] Readiness was overstated. Equipment was overstated. Training was for parades, not combat. Everyone in the Russian military had assumed they'd never actually fight a real war, so they could grift and sell rat…

I think we know the Russian air force exists from Syria. For ground troops, you may very well be right - they have been heavily relying on private military corps for a while now.

The Russian air force "exists", in that they have planes and pilots and bombs. But in what quantities and in what condition is a huge question. Furthermore, are they as good at flying in relatively contested airspace as is implied. Russia had total air superiority in Syria, Georgia, the Donbas, and the Caucasus. Ukraine has an army that actually exists and is being armed with some pretty high tech shit from the west.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#145

Post by noipv4 »

dogleash wrote: post #136
mstipetic wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always wonder how they developed things like that in the 70s. Right now I don’t know a single engineer that could even know how to begin to develop a system like that. I feel like most of them would try and throw a neural net at the problem and call it a day.

>I don’t know a single engineer that could even know how to begin to develop a system like that It's called "controls engineering", and there are plenty of talented people in the field. But you are correct that people who sought a career in websites and cellphones have never heard of it. (edit: s/cellphones/cellphone apps/)

if you are designing RF and cellphones have plenty of that, learning controls systems is a must. Think PLL, VCO, etc.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#146

Post by jiggawatts »

criddell wrote: post #63
boc wrote: post #50

I think we need to consider the possibility that much of the Russian army only existed on paper, and that the true strength was overinflated by trickling up good news only throughout all ranks of the military.[1] Readiness was overstated. Equipment was overstated. Training was for parades, not combat. Everyone in the Russian military had assumed they'd never actually fight a real war, so they could grift and sell rat…

> the true strength was overinflated by trickling up When I watched HBO's excellent Chernobyl that was one of the recurring themes. Everybody is lying to their superiors and nobody wants to hear bad news and they suffer because if it. I assumed that was probably exaggerated for the sake of drama but maybe it was actually understated?

It was spot on.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#147

Post by dragonwriter »

999900000999 wrote: post #110
platinumrad wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without minimizing the awfulness of this invasion and the fact that it must be condemned, it is not nearly as brutal as Russian operations in Chechnya and Syria or the US-led coalition invasion of Iraq, likely because Ukranians are not nearly as much of a racial or cultural other to Russians as Chechens or Syrians. The greater ability of Ukrainians to gain coverage in both traditional and social media may also be a f…

Thank you for articulating this better than I could. You had a CBS* commentator straight up saying this is different than Middle East wars since Kyiv is a " civilized city". That said, I think much of Russia's restraint is due to their end goal. Ukraine's Russian backed president was outted in a coup back in 2014. The new pro West leadership decided to go dancing with John McCain. This entire conflict could of been a…

> You had a CNN commentator straight up saying this is different than Middle East wars since Kyiv is a " civilized city".

CBS News foreign correspondent Charlie D'Agata, actually.

> It's not hard to imagine if Haiti had a US backed leader, who was removed in a coup and then replaced with a pro Russia / pro China president. Now imagine China and Russia announcing plans for various military bases on Haiti. The Russians could finally have a warm water port.

> In no universe would America accept Haiti having a right to its own foreign policy.

Uh, you know this actually happened in a different Caribbean island state and, while there was a bit of a dispute about nuclear weapons that resulted in both alliances pulling them back from each others borders in a quid pro quo, and a variety of covert and sponsored-third-party actions, the US never committed it's military to an all out assault to displace the Soviet-backed regime, which still exists and is still closely associated with Russia even after the fall of the USSR, a geopolitical alignment outlasting the notional ideological one.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#148

Post by xutopia »

sAbakumoff wrote: post #95

It's an internal resistance conducted by the military. In the coming days I would expect a coup, Putin's arrest(or worse), the new administration, end of war.

I seriously doubt that this would pan out. I think Putin is definitely losing support internally but the fear is still very much present. All of his political opponents are either imprisoned, exiled or dead. Some are even exiled and dead.

No one wants to lose their life going against someone so ruthless knowing they could lose their life... or their loved ones.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#149

Post by 999900000999 »

vegai_ wrote: post #132
999900000999 wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for articulating this better than I could. You had a CBS* commentator straight up saying this is different than Middle East wars since Kyiv is a " civilized city". That said, I think much of Russia's restraint is due to their end goal. Ukraine's Russian backed president was outted in a coup back in 2014. The new pro West leadership decided to go dancing with John McCain. This entire conflict could of been a…

Does NATO membership imply that America owns the country? I haven't witnessed anything like that in any of the European NATO countries.

>Article 5 provides that if a NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, each and every other member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the Ally attacked.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm

Like I said, I'm not enlisting if the Russians invade Poland. If individual American citizens want to a join a Polish foreign legion, that's fine. Maybe the State Department can create a list of approved foreign legions American citizen can join.

Then your free to sign up on your own accord.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#150

Post by mstipetic »

noipv4 wrote: post #145
dogleash wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I don’t know a single engineer that could even know how to begin to develop a system like that It's called "controls engineering", and there are plenty of talented people in the field. But you are correct that people who sought a career in websites and cellphones have never heard of it. (edit: s/cellphones/cellphone apps/)

if you are designing RF and cellphones have plenty of that, learning controls systems is a must. Think PLL, VCO, etc.

I assume they meant iOS or Android app development
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