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Apple's privacy push cost Meta $10B

economist.com

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Re: Apple's privacy push cost Meta $10B

#141

Post by alephnan »

eric4smith wrote: post #91

Lies. Don’t you all see it? Facebook has been declining over the past year and this is a convenient way to blame someone - anyone. Let’s face it, what are your friends all using now? That’s right - video - YouTube and TikTok. Facebook had no answer for video and thus lost a lot of eyeballs. Instagram is a poor clone of TikTok and most people just repost their popular TikTok videos on Instagram reels anyway - hardly a…

This seems like post-hoc confirmation of "I knew it! I told you guys so!" like people who claim a catastrophic recession is around the corner, quarter after next. If you have some special insight that the wider market doesn't and hasn't price in, then the odds and prices are asymmetrically tipped in your favor.

As an example, I spent $13,580 shorting Facebook on Wednesday, which I haven't sold but will probably later today. Yesterday, those short contracts were worth north of $200k. I did it within a Roth IRA, too, which makes it even higher conviction.

Truth is, it was a gamble. No one really knows. If you can truly predict where Facebook will be in 5 years, 2 years, even next quarter, you can be really rich.

Re: Apple's privacy push cost Meta $10B

#142

Post by tnel77 »

intrasight wrote: post #138
samwillis wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree with you that Facebook (the app) is in decline and Facebook/Meta are rushing to diversify as the market changes, the premise of the article that Apples change has significantly effected Facebooks revenues is not a lie. Apples change has fundamentally damaged ad conversion attribution from the Facebook/Instagram apps on iOS, we have seen it it ourselves. It may be that the exact figure of $10B is inflate…

Please correct me if I'm wrong. This privacy change only affects apps on iOS? I only use the facebook.com website. Ad tracking in that context hasn't changed?

That’s true, but I’d guess that there are a lot of users that exclusively use the iOS app.

Re: Apple's privacy push cost Meta $10B

#143

Post by YXNjaGVyZWdlbgo »

paulcole wrote: post #130
YXNjaGVyZWdlbgo wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it's a conspiracy theory because he presents it as facts without providing sources for his statements. it's about how not what. yikes.

You’re basically saying every comment here is a conspiracy theory, since (essentially) nobody here provides sources and everybody is convinced they’re spewing the unadulterated truth. By your definition, it’s a conspiracy theory for me to say, “I’m sure JFK was shot!” Because I’m saying it as fact without source. But then it’s also a conspiracy theory to say, “I’m sure JFK was shot by aliens.” The what is essential i…

It's about how not what at least follow the discussion you are answering. And nobody cares about your definition of conspiracy theories or your assumption of mine, normal human beings open for discourse care about the definition of the term in the general public. You can easily find it in a dictionary of your choice.

Re: Apple's privacy push cost Meta $10B

#144

Post by [deleted] »

newsclues wrote: post #133
sfe22 wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except the government is a monopoly with its own agenda. In addition it already kind of owns us (well a large percentage), what would it gain if it negotiated this deal for us? I would argue it can gain more power by making a deal with facebook.

Digital direct democracy is a potential opportunity that has only become possible with ubiquitous computing devices (iPhones)

[deleted]

Re: Apple's privacy push cost Meta $10B

#146

Post by actuator »

ksec wrote: post #80
00000000005 wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK so Google pays Apple around $13,000,000,000 per year. How much does Facebook pay Apple?

A tiny bit with their in App revenue split which Facebook tries to avoid. Although I doubt paying for it make much difference. You can tell Tim Cook and Apple, just like HN hate Facebook and Ads ( Which they have to backtrack and state they dont hate ads ). It is an ideology crash.

No, it is not an ideology crash. Apple is perfectly fine serving their own ads for which they are building a targeting profile.

It is an incentive crash. Apple tried iAds before and it didn't work as they couldn't do good personalised ads, this is them keeping the advantage just for them and getting good PR.

Apple is not a saint in this, not even a single bit.

Re: Apple's privacy push cost Meta $10B

#147

Post by bko »

eric4smith wrote: post #91

Lies. Don’t you all see it? Facebook has been declining over the past year and this is a convenient way to blame someone - anyone. Let’s face it, what are your friends all using now? That’s right - video - YouTube and TikTok. Facebook had no answer for video and thus lost a lot of eyeballs. Instagram is a poor clone of TikTok and most people just repost their popular TikTok videos on Instagram reels anyway - hardly a…

> Let’s face it, what are your friends all using now? That’s right - video - YouTube and TikTok.

I don't think HN reader's friends are Facebooks growth market. You might be looking at a biased sample. This is their growth levels of the last 3 years.

Quarter Year MAU Q Growth A growth

Q4 2021 2.912 0.07% 4.11%

Q3 2021 2.91 0.52% 6.20%

Q2 2021 2.895 1.47% 7.22%

Q1 2021 2.853 2.00% 9.60%

Q4 2020 2.797 2.08% 11.97%

Q3 2020 2.74 1.48% 11.88%

Q2 2020 2.7 3.73% 11.85%

Q1 2020 2.603 4.20% 9.60%

Q4 2019 2.498 2.00%

Q3 2019 2.449 1.45%

Q2 2019 2.414 1.64%

Q1 2019 2.375

https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly...

Re: Apple's privacy push cost Meta $10B

#148

Post by pnutjam »

sfe22 wrote: post #125
airza wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The concept you are describing is a government.

Except the government is a monopoly with its own agenda. In addition it already kind of owns us (well a large percentage), what would it gain if it negotiated this deal for us? I would argue it can gain more power by making a deal with facebook.

Everyone who doesn't vote and ignores their role in Democracy let's this happen. The president matters much less then the Mayor or the Governor.

Re: Apple's privacy push cost Meta $10B

#149

Post by bko »

criddell wrote: post #101
eric4smith wrote: post #91

Lies. Don’t you all see it? Facebook has been declining over the past year and this is a convenient way to blame someone - anyone. Let’s face it, what are your friends all using now? That’s right - video - YouTube and TikTok. Facebook had no answer for video and thus lost a lot of eyeballs. Instagram is a poor clone of TikTok and most people just repost their popular TikTok videos on Instagram reels anyway - hardly a…

If this isn't a lie and Apple flipping that switch cost Facebook $10bn, then that tells me my personal information is worth a lot. What I was getting from Facebook in exchange for my data was too little. I use Google a lot more than Facebook and frankly what I get from them in exchange for my data is probably also way too little. I wish there was some type of consumer union where we could negotiate with these compani…

It's not perfect but you can look at average revenue per user on Facebook. There are huge differences based on the country (note this is quarterly):

Q4 '20

Worldwide: 10.14

US: 53.56

Europe: 16.87

Asia Pacific: 4.05

Rest of world: 2.77

So you're worth just over $200 a year. This has gone up a lot over time and is considerably higher than other social networks. Just a year ago, it was 41.41 (23% less) and a year before that is was 34.86 (15% less).

It's harder to do a comparison to google, but I'm sure you're very valuable to them as well, increasingly so.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/251328/facebooks-average...

Re: Apple's privacy push cost Meta $10B

#150

Post by sfe22 »

pnutjam wrote: post #148
sfe22 wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except the government is a monopoly with its own agenda. In addition it already kind of owns us (well a large percentage), what would it gain if it negotiated this deal for us? I would argue it can gain more power by making a deal with facebook.

Everyone who doesn't vote and ignores their role in Democracy let's this happen. The president matters much less then the Mayor or the Governor.

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