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Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

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Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#141

Post by nuerow »

ur-whale wrote: post #117
nuerow wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Who's doing the scheming, I wonder? As with all pump-and-dump schemes, obviously those who pump it. Let's put it differently: what concrete, real-world, tangible value is there driving crypto speculation? Is there any at all? It boggles the mind how crypto proponents try to frame crypto in general and their own investments in particular as something that has this sky-high intrinsic value based only on potential pop…

> what concrete, real-world, tangible value is there driving crypto speculation? For a possible answer, please read my other post in this thread.

> For a possible answer, please read my other post in this thread.

You've posted an awful lot of messages, but the only one remotely related to crypto's intrinsic value was the following post which makes no relevant point at all.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28902307

In it, your main thesis is that you allege that crypto offers a way to "completely shield value", which is outright and patently false.

Even so, trying to portray crypto in general and BTC in particular as serving as a store of value is an absurd notion from the start, as it's renowned for being highly volatile and so prone to crashes that halve it's value that crypto's hardline proponents already invented the concept of periodic corrections.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#142

Post by altrum »

tablespoon wrote: post #123
wickoff wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Twitter is adding ownership verification for NFT profile pictures.

> Twitter is adding ownership verification for NFT profile pictures. Then what if someone mints new NFTs based on (say) the same images used for the cryptopunks cartoons? You could get your extremely online bragging rights for an affordable price.

Except you can't, practically speaking--as the price is baked into the "brand".

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#143

Post by koonsolo »

trophycase wrote: post #129
xenihn wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The exact same thing happened with Ethereum (and crypto in general) in 2017. But look how much it's rebounded after that crash. I still don't think it's a good long term investment, but it's been an amazing way for some people to make life-changing money. Sadly, I'm not one of them.

It's a good investment dude. I'm not trying to shill or anything here but Ethereum is literally the "internet" of finance. It democratizes and brings access to basic financial building blocks like we've never before seen in history and truly anything can be built on it. Unironically it's the future of finance. Don't listen to the Luddites and cynics here. Do the research yourself and try it out for yourself and it be…

You are 100% right, and also downvoted.

Welcome to HackerNews, a place that should think startup-like progressive, but really is technology conservative.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#144

Post by koonsolo »

nuerow wrote: post #57
wesleywt wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What surprises me is the constant negative drum beat against Bitcoin on Hackernews. Mostly based on speculation.

> What surprises me is the constant negative drum beat against Bitcoin on Hackernews. Why does that surprise you? As the article from this discussion shows, there is strong evidence supporting the idea that crypto in general "it's just a big scheme".

Those of us who have been here for a long time heard this story plenty of times before.

Ah, but this time it's different?

Distributed technology eats everything.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#145

Post by graeme »

rapsey wrote: post #97
lamp987 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When btc becomes overleveraged, we simply see a -25% flashcrash. They happen every couple months.

-25% flash crash when there is a minor economic event (if even that). What happens when there is a major 2008 style economic event? What happens when billions in BTC need to be sold in a day because a large entity needs to cover their margin call? Crypto has no floor.

Coinbase has the most active USD trading against BTC. Total volume runs from $300 million to about $1 billion.

And that’s both buying and selling, it isn’t liquidation.

So yes, good question indeed. $27 million in selling is expected to drop the price by 2% says Coinmarketcap

https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/coinbase-exchange/

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#146

Post by imtringued »

dnautics wrote: post #68
ISL wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm qualitatively in agreement -- I had day-traded bitcoin many years ago and sold off my last small holdings over the weekend. I had a forcing function that made the sale timely, but $62k/BTC was close-enough to my ~$100k/BTC target that it seemed silly to try to squeak out the remaining ~50% gain given the downside risk. It is strange no longer holding any cryptocurrency, but it is harder to see the future of crypt…

Should disclose my broader views: I would not be surprised if we saw BTC 100k, soon. I am more optimistic now than I ever was that there is an endgame where BTC (or something) is some sort of international reserve currency, but I still think the likelihood is low. I am hoping for an economic system that stops stealing from the poor to give to the rich (I think taxation is about as effective way to redistribute wealth…

Bitcoin just creates a new class of rich people. It's still the using same mechanisms but it is happening faster. Asset has no holding fee and gets more expensive? People speculate with it at the expense of those who will have to acquire it later (the poor).

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#147

Post by graeme »

riffraff wrote: post #77
cm2012 wrote: post #12

It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart really think NFTs are a good long term investment. It clearly has no value beyond speculation and the bubble will pop.

Oh but NFTs have a very clear value proposition: money laundering. They literally have no value other than what is attributed to them, so if you want to clean up some money you just have to buy an NFT with legit money for X, then sell it to yourself using less-than-legit money. Now you own all legit money, and have only spent some minor transaction fees.

Will that really work long run? It seems too obvious.

But thank you, that’s the most concise explanation I’ve seen for exactly how people could use NFTs to launder money.

If this is happening, would you expect to see a bunch of NFTs go from nothing, then sell for a large amount, then not move again?

Oh also I think you’d also have to declare capital gains tax to do it properly, but that’s better than laundering money via income.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#148

Post by graeme »

altrum wrote: post #142
tablespoon wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Twitter is adding ownership verification for NFT profile pictures. Then what if someone mints new NFTs based on (say) the same images used for the cryptopunks cartoons? You could get your extremely online bragging rights for an affordable price.

Except you can't, practically speaking--as the price is baked into the "brand".

But you’d get twitter verification. Or will twitter only recognize one chain for NFTs?

How do you handle someone minting multiple nfts of the same image on different chains?

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#149

Post by graeme »

yao420 wrote: post #84
stickyricky wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How? You can't see if I own any NFTs right now. You can't see it in gmail. You can't see it on facebook. You don't get ads saying "rich NFT holders in your area!". No one knows or cares if you own an NFT.

You can see what people own by their wallet address. The watch example is apt, similar to a Richard Mille being a flex that 99% of people won’t ever notice or understand it conveys status.

People are going to flash their wallet addresses at bars or at business meetings?

We already have strong social taboos about flashing bank accounts. The whole point of status good is they convey wealth rather than tactlessly showing a total.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#150

Post by graeme »

ur-whale wrote: post #121
graeme wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you american? You have a pretty garbage bank transfer system. Europe’s transfer usability matches or beat’s cryptos for transfers within the system. I’m Canadian. I just tried transferring my free Coinbase crypto to another wallet to withdraw and the process was slower than had I done a transfer between my two bank accounts. And much more fraught!

> I just tried transferring my free Coinbase That's not a wallet to wallet crypto transfer. That's a Coinbase transfer. Coinbase is awful as are the majority of other onramps.

Ok walk me through these wallet to wallet transfers and how they’re easier than bank transfers outside of the US. Like in Canada or Europe.

In 10 seconds I can my friend’s account and they can use that money to pay online with debit, instantly. Or, spend an extra $100 on their credit card, instantly, knowing their checking account has the room to pay it on bill date.

Tell me how a wallet transfer beats that.

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