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My first year at Magic Leap and the opportunity ahead

magicleap.com

141–150 of 174 posts

Re: My first year at Magic Leap and the opportunity ahead

#141

"We have accelerated the organization’s pivot to enterprise." Or, "we can't make this affordable".

It somewhat amuses me to see the parallels with Google Glass in this regard. I worry the enterprise market may already be quite crowded, though, and there are ample niche vendors specializing in AR for different use cases (construction, manufacturing, medicine/surgery, etc). I don't know that Magic Leap isn't a year late and a dollar short.

Re: My first year at Magic Leap and the opportunity ahead

#142

> According to IDC, the AR/VR market is expected to grow to nearly $140 billion by the end of 2024. That number seems wildly exaggerated... unless I'm missing something?

Yeah, seems way too high.

I recently got an Oculus Quest 2 and was immediately stunned by the dearth of content that exists on the platform.

AR/VR is a hard sell, still; besides the initial experience - and as a dev in the AR/VR industry I'm honestly waiting for when we can get rid of the screen door effect in VR and better solutions to the lighting problem in AR.

Re: My first year at Magic Leap and the opportunity ahead

#143

I think HN is pretty set on the fact that Magic Leap is vaporware, isn't it? do they even have a product?

Surely the NDAs that were signed when they were previewing the tech to journalists have expired. I'd love to know what it was they were seeing that resulted in so many articles announcing something great was coming. For me, only the Segway (Ginger) was a bigger disappointment.

The tragedy is they anticipated micromobility. Which will (may) be huge. They were just ~20 years too soon.

These "right idea, wrong time" fails confuse me. I just don't know what to make of it.

Re: My first year at Magic Leap and the opportunity ahead

#144

> According to IDC, the AR/VR market is expected to grow to nearly $140 billion by the end of 2024. That number seems wildly exaggerated... unless I'm missing something?

>That number seems wildly exaggerated... unless I'm missing something?

Both Apple and Facebook are wildly understood to be launching AR glasses with serious marketing pushes in 2022.

100 million units sold between the two of them over 2.5 years at an average price around the price of an iPhone (so $1000) plus some app sales adds up to $140BN. I guess. I agree that even there it seems high.

Re: My first year at Magic Leap and the opportunity ahead

#145

I want a good consumer AR headset. VR gives me a headache and I really think AR will be more fun / integrated with our lives. It's sad that MSFT made the HoloLens enterprise only, otherwise I'd be next in line for that.

I wish the Oculus Quest 2 had higher quality cameras. Some of my favourite times in that experience are when I have to see the world through my googles.

Re: My first year at Magic Leap and the opportunity ahead

#146
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coolest one I’ve seen is VR workspaces. Buying a $5k setup per head where they can work from space or the Grand Canyon with unlimited monitors, sit/stand/lay down, software upgrades (only a few pieces of hardware to replace), virtual meetings, building and modeling anything they want, etc It’s still kinda clunky now, but the tech will get better. That’s a money saver (and a big improvement) with the main barriers bei…

I dunno, I still can't quite see the potential of that. And even if they did get it working perfectly, then they're following in the footsteps of other people who've already done this on headsets that are a fraction of the price (like Immersed or Virtual Desktop). Even if they do manage to create mind-blowing hardware, they aren't exactly cornering a market here.

AR seems to me like one of those technologies that people keep claiming is definitely going to be "the future" even though the use cases are dubious.

Re: My first year at Magic Leap and the opportunity ahead

#147

> According to IDC, the AR/VR market is expected to grow to nearly $140 billion by the end of 2024. That number seems wildly exaggerated... unless I'm missing something?

Yeah, seems way too high. I recently got an Oculus Quest 2 and was immediately stunned by the dearth of content that exists on the platform. AR/VR is a hard sell, still; besides the initial experience - and as a dev in the AR/VR industry I'm honestly waiting for when we can get rid of the screen door effect in VR and better solutions to the lighting problem in AR.

If you’re interested in what’s possible atm, check out the Varjo XR-3. No screen door effect.

Re: My first year at Magic Leap and the opportunity ahead

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you serious? This looks like an undergraduate project hacked up with OpenCV.. I'd still give it an A though.

Yeah. I'm kind of left feeling like I'd rather fly the plane in a better looking simulated environment, with a first-person perspective. It's more flexible and fun than being tied to flying it in the environment around you. I still haven't seen a compelling use case for AR.

The use case is a virtual meta-layer for the real world where you can interact with stuff without needing to look at a small glass handheld display.

Things like, pulling up addresses of buildings you look at, names of people you've met, line on ground for gps, playing board games with people without needing a board or dealing with the rule book (software assisted), see meta information floating around devices (battery level, year, serial number), etc. etc.

The UX of phones is pretty good but it suffers from its form factor. If you could have a UX for the world you can really enable a lot more human abilities in a really intuitive way and you can get closer to something that feels like telepathy.

Re: My first year at Magic Leap and the opportunity ahead

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What they could do, if they figure out the right play, with the right hardware, is make this a really compelling active entertainment device. You already saw haw popular Pokemon Go was... I think locking eyeballs to locations has VC's interested.

Yes, but Pokemon Go was popular because it was on a phone you already had, because it was an extremely popular franchise, and because of the good luck of being a fad at the right time. Nothing else took its place, and, while still being popular, it quickly faded from the status of global phenomenon. It's a nice money making game, but not a hardware seller.

Most people I knew who played Pokemon Go quickly turned off the AR feature anyway.

Re: My first year at Magic Leap and the opportunity ahead

#150

I am impressed they aren't defunct. After all they raised $3B[1] and their valuation is $2B so they are a long way away from making their investors whole. They did replace their entire top line management team it seems so maybe that helps? A friend of mine who was approaching AR from a more theoretical point rather than a product point shared some of the physics of how many nits of brightness the display needs to pro…

Huh... dynamic lcd shading seems like a solvable problem.
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