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Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

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Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#141
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

If I may ask, what are your thoughts on BuildZoom? If I go through them can I be more certain about quality work? I have heard many horror stories of people who had houses built and the builders made terrible mistakes. The person having the house built had to micromanage them and kept finding bad mistakes, like "forgetting" to put insulation in walls before the drywall, putting a window in the wrong spot, or putting…

I imagine the better way is to hire an experienced GC to go and check on it every day for you. It’s only “better” in terms of time (and perhaps experience), though.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#142
post #25

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

A monthly payment on a mortgage of $1mm is ~$4k. That’s the same cost to rent a 2-3br in the 1k-1.4k square foot range in much of San Francisco.

Napkin math suggests that it’s a reasonable payment for those >=$170k annual income, which is very common in software in the USA.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#143
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps they were just quotation marks rather than scare quotes and they genuinely wanted to show how wild the price fluctuations have been. Cynicism abounds on the internet, but people are still sometimes genuine.

Thanks. I'm legitimately quoting, but also prefer use of more specific terms like "tripled" or "fives times more expensive" etc. than common dramatic headlines words like "crushed", "slammed", "blasted", "surged".

The chart you linked was way more dramatic than I imagined when I read "skyrocketing" and "cratering".

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand your comment and scare quotes, do you think a quadrupling in price of a commodity is not skyrocketing? That’s a cool website thank you for sharing it.

those aren't scare quotes. they're just quotes.

No, they are scare quotes as the poster admits in another comment.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like the chart, but it's exactly what the article indicated, no? Article indicated It went up to 3 times the price and is now down to pre rocket prices. Charts seem to agree?

I wouldn't define "returning to historic norms" as "cratering". Would you define a plane landing smoothly on a runway, even after a steep dive, as "cratering" the runway?

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Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#146
post #35

Multi-year chart of lumber prices puts some of these "skyrocketing" and "cratering" headlines in perspective: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

That's a very cool site!

When I click on the 25Y and 'all' views, it definitely looks like a hockey stick.

Ergo the popular narrative of lumber prices has been accurate.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#147
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ehh I think it would be irresponsible to use all my savings like that, plus you need to buy the land to build on and pay for your current place

You still end up owning the house, so it's more of a conversion in savings. And you'd probably be paying it off over time, with the help of ongoing income, if the mortgage rate isn't super high. Land depends on where you go, no comment there, but keeping up payment on your current place during construction just means you end up paying for 21 years of housing on a 20 year mortgage, or 31 years of housing on a 30 year…

hmm thats an interesting way to think of it.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand your comment and scare quotes, do you think a quadrupling in price of a commodity is not skyrocketing? That’s a cool website thank you for sharing it.

No, that’s not really skyrocketing if your point of reference is other volatile things (stocks, crypto currencies, etc).

Your point of reference for a commodity should be the amount of money the buyers who need the commodity have.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand your comment and scare quotes, do you think a quadrupling in price of a commodity is not skyrocketing? That’s a cool website thank you for sharing it.

“Prices crash to pre-pandemic levels 18 months ago”

[deleted]

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#150
post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

those aren't scare quotes. they're just quotes.

No, they are scare quotes as the poster admits in another comment.

The poster said "I'm legitimately quoting", which doesn't sound like an admission to me.
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