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Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#141

Post by roenxi »

nebula8804 wrote: post #111
enriquto wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My favorite conspiracy theory is that the CCP is sowing the division within us to drive us to civil war, whereby they win WWIII without ever firing a shot. How is this a conspiracy theory and how is this a bad thing? The so-called Cold War (i.e., WWIII) was won by the USA "without ever firing a shot", by exactly the same method: sowing division within the socialist bloc. Do you think that the U.S.-influenced divisi…

Some would argue the actions of the US in Afghanistan during the Cold War led to 9/11 as blowback. That one event permanently altered the US's path and helped to show that the empire is declining.

In terms of civilisational collapse 9/11 is meaningless, and all of the damage done by response was a series of unforced errors on the US's part. They didn't have to tear off a nose to spite their face.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#142

Post by OneTimePetes »

no_wizard wrote: post #8

Perhaps not entire civilization collapse, pending nuclear arsenals unleashed, but I think we are edging ever closer to massive social upheaval, what shape of this I am unsure about. To quote an adjacent article that was mentioned in this one: How Western Civilization Could Collapse > Eventually, the working population crashes because the portion of wealth allocated to them is not enough, followed by collapse of the e…

We are better prepared for it then ever though. We have social implants, which at least in part allow mob-violence prevention (filming and upload). We have scenario tree root hardening. Youtube allows technology recovery, we have lots of old, sturdy tech and did not invest in to many technologies that are "high tech" but brittle. Which means, even after a downfall, our odds of recovery are much better. We have electronic media, which allows to entertain and stun large masses of people without consuming much. j

Its not the vision of humanity we had, but a starving monk sitting in the desert, dreaming of the future, while hypnotized by the coloured light from a electric rock, is the best we got.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#143

Post by mellavora »

BurningFrog wrote: post #26

I'm an amateur historian at best, but I'm not aware of any era that has not expected the world to end soon. The Christians have done it for 20 centuries now, as one example. During my life, it has always been a common expectation, though the expected cause has shifted a few times. My hunch is that maybe we're hard wired to expect the world to end, for some undiscovered reason. Again, I remind you of my amateur status…

There is some really interesting psychological literature which assumes that the foundational wiring of personality is laid in the womb, see Stanislav Grofs writings.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Grof

This has four potential archetypes: 1 The Amniotic Universe; 2 Cosmic Engulfment and No Exit; 3 The Death-Rebirth Struggle; 4 The Death-Rebirth Experience

Number 3 can be characterized as the valiant heroic struggle against huge odds which leads to a peaceful new age. (i.e. vaginal birth, which is extremely challenging for the child as well as mother).

Since most of us were at one time in a womb and then left it, this idea that our current state might end is indeed, as you said, hard-wired into the human brain.

I can't say that the reason has been discovered, but Grof's theories cannot be immediately discarded.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#144

Post by rmchugh »

qsort wrote: post #140
diordiderot wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your husband takes out a variable rate mortgage 120% of your homes value to spend on luxury goods, Buys a g-wagon, and starts embezzling from his company. Instead of paying for utilities you steal then from neighbors. To save on garbage collection you fly tip. The last 5 years have been wonderful for you quality of life. You shouldn't question your situation because things are 'better'.

What does this have to do with anything? Most of the West (let alone most of the rest of the world) is far better off than it was even just 50 years ago by almost every single metric you can conceive. It's hard to believe it's due to financial games exclusively: people are better off in real terms. Inequality is a problem because when members of your community are living in very different conditions, the cohesion of…

it's not about financial games, but rather externalities. There are significant external costs of our way of life that are borne by others. That new car emits CO2 that contributes to global heating. The steaks we eat come from cows that have been fed with soy beans from cleared rainforests. etc etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality#Negative

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#145

Post by qsort »

coldtea wrote: post #139
Isinlor wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world is better off today in basically every way than it was 100 years ago, and almost unimaginably better than it was 200 years ago. The worst 10% today do about as well as majority of West was doing back then. And the condition of the poor is improving rapidly. The places were it is not true, it is due to wars. But well, this is perspective of a Polish person. My country lost 25% of the population during wars w…

> The world is better off today in basically every way than it was 100 years ago, and almost unimaginably better than it was 200 years ago. ... in the kind of metrics people like Hans Rosling of Steven Pinker care about, when taking quantitative state-produced stats at face value, and with naive extrapolation (and ignoring statistical fluctuations, black swans, etc). E.g. "the condition of the poor is improving rapid…

> in the kind of metrics people like Hans Rosling of Steven Pinker care about

I'm curious by what kind of metrics the world was better 100 years ago. You're arguing against a strawman: there are challenges ahead != we were better off before.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#146

Post by mellavora »

kortilla wrote: post #68
tartoran wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep in mind that in the last two centuries we’ve grown and expanded more or less exponentially. The destruction to the environment was proportional to it. Not saying we are going to self destruct, I don’t have a crystal ball to predict that, but it seems to me that right now we’re right on track towards it and the trainwreck is becoming harder and harder to avoid. Global warming and climate change is becoming more a…

But the risk to individual humans has dropped substantially as technology advanced. People were much more likely to just starve to death 100 years ago or die from simple medical ailments. The pressure we are putting on other species and flora is immense but humanity’s future has never been so certain. The only way to claim civilization collapse is to move the goal posts to a population decimation. But even that would…

Humanity's PRESENT has never been more certain, and yes, at present almost every human has it better than at any other time in history.

But it is dangerous to extrapolate that this means our FUTURE is so certain, especially given that we have irreversibly destroyed the environment and conditions which gave us our current prosperity.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#147

Post by mellavora »

muzani wrote: post #52
BurningFrog wrote: post #26

I'm an amateur historian at best, but I'm not aware of any era that has not expected the world to end soon. The Christians have done it for 20 centuries now, as one example. During my life, it has always been a common expectation, though the expected cause has shifted a few times. My hunch is that maybe we're hard wired to expect the world to end, for some undiscovered reason. Again, I remind you of my amateur status…

The topic is the end of a civilization, not the world. Plenty of civilizations have collapsed in the last 20 centuries, but it depends on how you define a collapse. The fall of the Roman and Aztec empires would be the benchmarks. Would we also consider the more recent Nazi Germany or Ottoman Empire falls as collapses?

Or the collapse of Russia in the 1990s? Anyone remember that?

There is a really interesting talk on this: https://longnow.org/seminars/02009/feb/13/social-collapse-be...

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#148

Post by bryanrasmussen »

Isinlor wrote: post #125
no_wizard wrote: post #8

Perhaps not entire civilization collapse, pending nuclear arsenals unleashed, but I think we are edging ever closer to massive social upheaval, what shape of this I am unsure about. To quote an adjacent article that was mentioned in this one: How Western Civilization Could Collapse > Eventually, the working population crashes because the portion of wealth allocated to them is not enough, followed by collapse of the e…

The world is better off today in basically every way than it was 100 years ago, and almost unimaginably better than it was 200 years ago. The worst 10% today do about as well as majority of West was doing back then. And the condition of the poor is improving rapidly. The places were it is not true, it is due to wars. But well, this is perspective of a Polish person. My country lost 25% of the population during wars w…

>The world is better off today in basically every way than it was 100 years ago, and almost unimaginably better than it was 200 years ago.

so this seems sort of like the old joke about jumping off the skyscraper and as you fall past the 10th floor say "so far so good", only now the person falling is doing cocaine and says "things are only getting better!"

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#149

Post by qsort »

rmchugh wrote: post #144
qsort wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does this have to do with anything? Most of the West (let alone most of the rest of the world) is far better off than it was even just 50 years ago by almost every single metric you can conceive. It's hard to believe it's due to financial games exclusively: people are better off in real terms. Inequality is a problem because when members of your community are living in very different conditions, the cohesion of…

it's not about financial games, but rather externalities. There are significant external costs of our way of life that are borne by others. That new car emits CO2 that contributes to global heating. The steaks we eat come from cows that have been fed with soy beans from cleared rainforests. etc etc. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality#Negative

It frankly still is a stretch to claim that living conditions would revert to even just 1950s levels if we reduced emissions to a sustainable level. Again, most of those improvements have been in real terms. We are simply more productive.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#150

Post by drunkpotato »

diordiderot wrote: post #132
Isinlor wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world is better off today in basically every way than it was 100 years ago, and almost unimaginably better than it was 200 years ago. The worst 10% today do about as well as majority of West was doing back then. And the condition of the poor is improving rapidly. The places were it is not true, it is due to wars. But well, this is perspective of a Polish person. My country lost 25% of the population during wars w…

Your husband takes out a variable rate mortgage 120% of your homes value to spend on luxury goods, Buys a g-wagon, and starts embezzling from his company. Instead of paying for utilities you steal then from neighbors. To save on garbage collection you fly tip. The last 5 years have been wonderful for you quality of life. You shouldn't question your situation because things are 'better'.

I love this analogy, and it's definitely a perspective to take seriously. "It's always okay, until it isn't" is something to consider, as is the idea that civilization is living on borrowed time, or borrowing from the future to pay the present.

I don't know if it's true, or if it's even something we can falsify at any moment in history, but stable civilizations have collapsed, and it's worth understanding that it could happen to ours too.

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