Why North America's killer heat scares me • Hacker News Board

Re: Why North America's killer heat scares me

#141

Post by simiones » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 4:22 PM UTC

AnIdiotOnTheNet wrote: post #16

throwaway284534 wrote: post #6

Respectfully, I’m getting fatigued from hearing about climate changes. Not because I don’t care, but because I feel powerless to do anything major about it. For all the recycling I’ve done, a single factory can undo in just a day. Being defeatist isn’t exactly productive, but hearing that calamities are happening on a daily basis doesn’t help much either. I really do think the only way this’ll get better is after som…

> For all the recycling I’ve done, a single factory can undo in just a day. Tangential, but recycling is much less effective the reduced consumption. I think the problem with policy makers not moving on this front is a reflection of people not doing so. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to make people even believe in something that would require them to sacrifice their lifestyle, let alone actually commit to doing…

> Unfortunately, it is very difficult to make people even believe in something that would require them to sacrifice their lifestyle, let alone actually commit to doing something about it.

There's also the major problem that history's most sophisticated propaganda machine - the PR and advertising industry - is almost entirely focused on getting people to consume more of everything. Buy a new phone each year, buy a new car, buy a new fridge, buy a new washing machine, buy new clothes every week, buy more toys, always more more more.

The truth is that it will be impossible to stop the worse effects of global warming if we don't significantly reduce consumption of most things to older rates: people used to have one fridge their entire lives. A smartphone should last at least 10 years. Furniture should last generations. Clothes should last years.

Re: Why North America's killer heat scares me

#142

Post by abeppu » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 4:23 PM UTC

throwaway284534 wrote: post #6

Respectfully, I’m getting fatigued from hearing about climate changes. Not because I don’t care, but because I feel powerless to do anything major about it. For all the recycling I’ve done, a single factory can undo in just a day. Being defeatist isn’t exactly productive, but hearing that calamities are happening on a daily basis doesn’t help much either. I really do think the only way this’ll get better is after som…

> Being defeatist isn’t exactly productive,

> the only way this’ll get better is after some additional damage is seen and felt by policy makers

I do sometimes think the way to shock people into actual change is to switch from defeatist rhetoric to unhinged triumphalism:

"For decades our war against Future Earth has been stunningly successful, and we're approaching the completion of a total victory! Yes, some might argue that our tactics have been unethical, and that our willingness to cause so many civilian casualties has been irresponsible. And perhaps, as time drags us across the front, as we encounter friendly (wild)fire, we may reconsider the unique harms of our arsenal. But as you encounter the destruction we have worked so hard to bring about, if ever your heart wavers, remember! Future Earth has always been fated to stand on the grave of Past Earth. And if Past Earth must die, why should we leave behind resources for others to prosper from our passing? Our victory may not be just, but it is Victory!"

The issue isn't so much that there's nothing we can do. The issue is that we've been highly effective at pushing in the wrong direction. We've allowed ourselves to frame our impacts as almost unavoidable accidents, rather than as acts of violence and destruction. Yes, policy makers must act, but perhaps we should be talking about tribunals to consider crimes against humanity, and international legal mechanisms to address collective guilt, rather than patting politicians on the head when they announce that eventually we'll stop selling ICE cars.

Re: Why North America's killer heat scares me

#143

Post by generj » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 4:24 PM UTC

partiallypro wrote: post #126

generj wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn’t the poor farmer in China deserve electricity though? US + EU got to use coal (and still do) for 150 years before we even started discussing eliminating its use. If the West isn’t going to let the world use coal or other carbon heavy solutions, they need to pay the cost differences. It isn’t fair to impose poverty on everyone else after reaping the benefits of carbon emissions. We will never get global buy-in…

You really think the US, etc should have to pay for the second largest economy (by a huge margin) in the world to go green? Your argument doesn't even really hold water. Coal etc was used because it had no real alternative at the time, now there is an alternative.

China isn’t the best example of my point. I’m talking about the developing world broadly - we should absolutely foot some of the bill for other countries to go green or pay for geoengineering so they have a longer timeframe to do so. Coal is still cheap and can be much easier to operate than alternatives - unless someone helps make the alternatives easier to install and operate.

How much of China’s energy goes towards producing goods for the West? If the coal is burned to cheaply provide goods for us, aren’t we at least partially responsible for that? Criticizing China while we have higher CO2 emissions per capita AND off source much of our emissions to them isn’t a convincing argument as evidenced by the fact that they are barely paying lip service to emission reductions.

Again, we need to make sure we have global buy-in. The plan needs to offer benefits to small villages throughout the world rather than denying the fruits of electrification and industry to them.

Re: Why North America's killer heat scares me

#144

Post by morpheos137 » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 4:30 PM UTC

taylorlapeyre wrote: post #47

I recommend the book “Unsettled” by Steven Koonan for a more empirical look at how these computer models work, and the deficiencies of trying to predict catastrophe with them. For instance, every climate model is wildly off when it tries to predict the climate changes starting in 1950. This article reads like a typical scare piece. The truth is, there’s just so many feedback loops in climate that we just don’t know w…

There are many other feedback effects too, for example plants grow more massive faster in warmer temperatures and with higher fractions of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Despite many hysterical media reports conflating global climate change with regional droughts this can not be a global effect, higher temperatures, instead, lead to greater percipation from greater water vapour production. Thus higher temperatures at lower lattitudes could result in icecap growth in polar regions increasing albedo and thermal inertia. These are just a few of the countervailing feedback effects. The bottom line is the that the climate system as whole is extremely complicated and has been self-rebalancing for literally billions of years. I seriously doubt that a few 10s of decades of burning fossils will result in an earth that was uninhabitable.

Chixculub impactor in Yucatan 65 million years ago vaporised a huge amount of carbonate rock (eg limestone) due to the particular geology of where it hit. I wonder how that compared to the amount of carbon humans have emmited over the past several hundred years from coal and burning marine algae fossils carbon (oil, natural gas).

It is clear to me that what is really driving the "climate crisis" is rent seeking by politicians, media, scientists. Special interests always love a crisis they can benefit from.

Re: Why North America's killer heat scares me

#145

Post by jefftk » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 4:35 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #119

jefftk wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is 2.5% of patients, not 2.5% of the population if it spreads everywhere. Not everyone who is exposed to coronavirus gets sick enough to be counted as a patient in those statistics

Correct. The CDC estimated that only about a quarter of US infections were officially counted as cases. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

I'm also not sure that "case" and "patient" are being used as synonyms here?

Re: Why North America's killer heat scares me

#146

Post by nathanaldensr » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 4:38 PM UTC

bioinformatics wrote: post #36

throwaway284534 wrote: post #6

Respectfully, I’m getting fatigued from hearing about climate changes. Not because I don’t care, but because I feel powerless to do anything major about it. For all the recycling I’ve done, a single factory can undo in just a day. Being defeatist isn’t exactly productive, but hearing that calamities are happening on a daily basis doesn’t help much either. I really do think the only way this’ll get better is after som…

Best thing you can do is to not produce any pollution whatsoever. It’s the easiest and most ecological way to have 0 impact on Nature. Make a list of all the things that harm Earth that you do daily (hint: using a computer and the internet is one) and just eliminate from your life. You will be better, we are going to be better and thw world will thank you

The only way to accomplish what you call the "best way" is for everyone to die.

Re: Why North America's killer heat scares me

#147

Post by ZoomerCretin » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 4:42 PM UTC

firestarter223 wrote: post #81

If you point out recent coldness records, you will be lectured about the difference between weather and climate. I think the real issue may be the human delusion that things staying the same is normal (perhaps because of the short life span of humans), and more recently in scientific terms, that averages are normal. About this article I find it odd that it cites Thatcher, of all people. Surely the information she use…

Both events are caused by the jet stream changing its usual patterns due to climate change. Your strawman is a poor one.

Re: Why North America's killer heat scares me

#148

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 4:47 PM UTC

hooplah wrote: post #138

pastage wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an global issue it's up to everyone to lower emissions, exporting all your factories to China has been the solution for all of those countries. We can not blame China for that.

Again, I support moving more manufacturing to the US for sure. And we can demand our politicians to do that so we can control emissions, as well as try to hold countries accountable through sanctions. (don't buy any slave-made products, don't buy any coal-made products) We can certainly blame China for building coal factories, dumping plastic in the ocean, and generally just not giving a fuck about human rights or en…

[deleted]

Re: Why North America's killer heat scares me

#149

Post by prox » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 4:48 PM UTC

wk_end wrote: post #110

prox wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Making money comes first in this world, and only then comes the realization if our kids or grandkids still have a habitable world. Guess up until now it’s an abstraction people couldn’t imagine. Despite years of warning. Recently been thinking we should reform old style political parties. Instead we get to directly vote for ideological topics which we can vote on, and politicians/parties who adhere to them. So instea…

> Making money comes first in this world In the past year virtually every major economy in the world shut down to try to ward off a virus that, even unchecked, couldn't kill a fraction of the people or ruin the world the way climate change might. Google tells me that it'd cost anywhere from $300 billion to $50 trillion to end climate change, however that'd work [0]; the amount we've collectively spent on COVID, somew…

Yeah, that’s one way to look at it. If we had tackled climate change like we do covid a decade ago or more, we might already have made significant progress.

Re: Why North America's killer heat scares me

#150

Post by adamcstephens » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 4:48 PM UTC

hooplah wrote: post #114

adamcstephens wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who is to blame for outsourced manufacturing then? If one country consumes a vast amount of goods from another, are they not also accountable for that other country’s emissions?

If you truly believe it's this dire, does it matter? It's up to that country to cut emissions even if they accept that job on behalf of other countries. But first, lets start on just not dumping plastic into oceans, building more coal plants, and generally not cutting emissions at all (China) Then we can worry on the manufacturing like cement and steel (I believe we should make our own steel anyway) The more stuff we…

What makes you think the US gives a shit either? Companies have spent the last forty years moving manufacturing out of the country because it lets them profit a bit more. They don’t give a shit about climate change unless they can make more money off it. I’m all for bringing manufacturing back on-shore, but what makes you think the lobbyists will stop trying to undermine environmental regulations if we do?

I consider it propaganda to blame China for all its emissions, when how much of them are to build and manufacture junk for the west? No, raw emissions numbers are not “the only metric that matters” because we live in a complex world with a complex web of trade. Sure, China can and should do a much better job cutting emissions. Though if that causes production prices to go up, the American companies will just move production somewhere else that is further behind in environmental regulations.

Nobody in power gives a shit about the climate and emissions. The words you’re hearing from them don’t match their actions, and we in the US are nowhere near a sustainable level even if you ignore our outsourced energy usage.