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CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

blog.waymo.com

141–150 of 248 posts

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#141

Having read hundreds of these sorts of CEO leaving letters I'm a bit jaded and cynical. If you're interested in what I see when I read that message, I rewrote it[1] in more plain language. Google demands a lot of its "other bets" companies. Some might say it asks too much. Mostly it seems to me that they want a 'moonshot' company that has the original profitability of search advertising, full stop. And while it would…

Maybe businesses don't need revenue streams. I wonder by how much the Moonshot program, increased Google's Market Cap.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#142

Having read hundreds of these sorts of CEO leaving letters I'm a bit jaded and cynical. If you're interested in what I see when I read that message, I rewrote it[1] in more plain language. Google demands a lot of its "other bets" companies. Some might say it asks too much. Mostly it seems to me that they want a 'moonshot' company that has the original profitability of search advertising, full stop. And while it would…

I am 32. I Could have written this 7 years ago. I no longer accept job offers at any salary in this industry.

In fact, all my emails and communications are written in this style all the time with everyone - what shall I do now wise one? (serious question)

You wanna start a band or whatever. Maybe we can start like an Elks club thing?

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#143

Having read hundreds of these sorts of CEO leaving letters I'm a bit jaded and cynical. If you're interested in what I see when I read that message, I rewrote it[1] in more plain language. Google demands a lot of its "other bets" companies. Some might say it asks too much. Mostly it seems to me that they want a 'moonshot' company that has the original profitability of search advertising, full stop. And while it would…

Could you also translate the last section too? Would love to read that as well

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#144

Some comments are saying self-driving cars are not currently possible and that Waymo isn't successful, but aren't they currently available to the public in some areas in Phoenix, with no safety drivers? There may be many limitations, but self-driving in sunny flat suburban areas would already cover a decent portion of the American market. Sure they might not be ready for chaotic, busy city centres or regions with har…

I encourage you to watch a video of a current Waymo ride in Phoenix. In one ride I watched, the very first turn it made out of a parking lot should have been a left turn, but it turned right instead and went through residential streets to get back in the right direction. It is nice that they have deployed to the public, but I doubt anyone capable of driving themselves will use it any time soon if it can't even make l…

I don't understand what you're saying. Obviously the cars are capable of turning left. Are you saying it took a longer route when there was a shorter path to leave the parking lot? I don't know what video you're referring to (there's quite a few), but that seems to concern the high-level path planning, not any driving capabilities (e.g. a human following GPS instructions might have chosen the same route). Or perhaps the navigation planning system prefers to drive through lower traffic residential areas.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#145

That's sad. I must be the only one who thinks full self driving will not happen before year 2100. Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? I cannot think of a single thing. At best things are partially automated and need humans still. The thing is, if you have "partial" self driving, you might as well just drive yourself IMHO. The consequence of being wrong with a car is literally…

It really depends on what you mean by "full self driving". Eg, I wouldn't consider the stuff Tesla is doing as self driving at all. I have significant worry because to reduces attention while still requiring it for safety. If you're talking "Hail robocab, don't touch a steering wheel, arrive at your destination", then Waymo is already there: https://blog.waymo.com/2020/10/waymo-is-opening-its-fully-dr... You might me…

Waymo has to learn the exact space it's going to drive in ahead of time, and then have high resolution lidar maps generated to assist. It's currently limited to use in grid-like pre-mapped areas like Phoenix AZ. Tesla is building a general learning solution such that you can take the vehicle anywhere, and not have the requirement that the area be pre-mapped or 'learned' by Tesla beforehand. Tesla has orders of magnitude more data and mileage driven than Waymo could possibly ever imagine having. Waymo is not going to scale. CEO departures like this are a big red flag. Pin this comment. Google will shutter Waymo in less than five years.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#146

Having read hundreds of these sorts of CEO leaving letters I'm a bit jaded and cynical. If you're interested in what I see when I read that message, I rewrote it[1] in more plain language. Google demands a lot of its "other bets" companies. Some might say it asks too much. Mostly it seems to me that they want a 'moonshot' company that has the original profitability of search advertising, full stop. And while it would…

I understand the sentiment, but $20M/year really is a waste of time for a $200B/year business. I have a hard time thinking of a way it wouldn't be a loss given the added organizational complexity having those kinds of projects would bring. I thought the entire purpose of "other bets" was to pursue ideas that have the potential to become $XXB/year revenue streams. So of course they want 'moonshot' companies.

> $20M/year really is a waste of time for a $200B/year business.

That's the thing though, it isn't a waste of time.

One can hear very similar logic from people with investments. They will say "The stock market is returning X% / year and is way better than those bonds with only 3%/year. Investing in bonds is a waste of time."

They say that because they have yet to internalize the value of having a diversified their investments. Not everything goes up all the time.

It only makes sense for Google if the Search Ads business were to never ever lose its profitability. And yet, it is losing its profitability. As a result, Google has to aggressively cut back on expenses, remove projects, end of life products, etc as that cash cow slowly deflates.

Consider then the alternative where there are 10, 20, even 30 business lines within Google generating $10 - $30M of profit each. 30 businesses at $30M is only $900M, less than 5% of their revenue, but those businesses are SOLID and provide a supply of management talent, consistency, and some bucks to keep the lights on elsewhere.

That is diversification of execution risk. It works the same way investment diversification works, it adds other, less high margin, businesses to the portfolio that are all revenue positive.

A company like Google can use those businesses to experiment with alternate user support models, management schemes, policies, and communications. All of that helps the "main" company to mature in its thinking about how to be a business. Sadly, executives who have never had any experience other than one wildly successful business tend to think exactly like you do, "Why would I waste time on piddling little products when I've got more cash than I know what to do with being pumped out by my main business?"

Short answer: "Things change."

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#147

Having read hundreds of these sorts of CEO leaving letters I'm a bit jaded and cynical. If you're interested in what I see when I read that message, I rewrote it[1] in more plain language. Google demands a lot of its "other bets" companies. Some might say it asks too much. Mostly it seems to me that they want a 'moonshot' company that has the original profitability of search advertising, full stop. And while it would…

I am 32. I Could have written this 7 years ago. I no longer accept job offers at any salary in this industry. In fact, all my emails and communications are written in this style all the time with everyone - what shall I do now wise one? (serious question) You wanna start a band or whatever. Maybe we can start like an Elks club thing?

Are you the CEO or the non-executive employee? One of the reasons I put my email in my profile is that it brings me interesting questions. :-)

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#148

That's sad. I must be the only one who thinks full self driving will not happen before year 2100. Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? I cannot think of a single thing. At best things are partially automated and need humans still. The thing is, if you have "partial" self driving, you might as well just drive yourself IMHO. The consequence of being wrong with a car is literally…

full self driving would far easier if they weren't all trying to cover all cases at once. I, along with others, have mentioned that a far simpler problem to solve is freeway travel. HOV and Express lanes make this easy. They have well established markings, limited access, and traffic goes in one direction. So industry and regulators would work together to solve standardization of markings for travel and entry and exi…

Tesla is 100% going to win in this space. And as Musk and Karpathy have said, the general solution will be in place and work nearly everywhere, but a long tail of edge scenarios will have to be ironed out over time. This is nascent, world changing technology solving hard problems.

As a M3 owner you get to see the feature set growing over time, but the zero-to-one moment is when that FSD is finally rolled out in 9.x

I can't wait. It's going to be amazing.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#149
post #126

I still think it was a mistake to hire this guy and partner with the auto industry dinosaurs. Should have kept going down the path of being independent and building their own cars without steering wheels. I never liked "Waymo" as a brand either. Maybe just retrofitting off the shelf cars made sense if they thought they needed hundreds of thousands of cars ASAP, but it turns out they would have had plenty of time to d…

You are very, very wrong. I saw the sausage being made. The "koala" car was ... not a success. Building a car is so hard. And Google mostly sucks at hardware manufacturing. There are good reasons why their market share of Chromebooks, Android phones, etc. is vanishingly small.

Not that building a car is easy, but there are contract manufacturers that can build cars and even design cars for you. And they won't have quite as much of a conflict of interest, in that their business model isn't selling cars direct to consumers, which Waymo is explicitly trying to disrupt.

The koala cars may not have been successful but that was many years ago, years that could have been spent making something better.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#150
post #139

Just wanted to say, from the outside, John Krafcik seemed to me like a strong leader. I used to live in Mountain View and at one point I saw a few Waymo vans (this was 3-4 years ago when they were more active) speeding on El Camino (just barely, and being manually driven at the time, but even though I work for a competitor I was concerned if an accident happened it'd be a bad publicity event; i.e., Waymo vehicles sho…

I talked to someone who was working with BMW 5 years ago and they had a similar story- automotive companies hated Tesla because they all understood that one screw up on self driving probably meant he death of their brand in terms of safety and probably a massive set back for the entire industry. That’s something a start up can afford but for a large car manufacturer it’s an existential threat.
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