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What I Think of Bitcoin

bridgewater.com

141–150 of 209 posts

Re: What I Think of Bitcoin

#141
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ray isn't the only one, the market is pricing in zero risk of tether collapsing. It trades at no discount to real dollars, anybody with a Coinbase account could convert pretty high volumes of tether to real dollars. I really have no idea why, it seems sketchy.

It looks like Coinbase doesn't support Tether: https://www.coinbase.com/price/tether

You are correct; its USDC token is backed by audited USD$.

Re: What I Think of Bitcoin

#142

I think it's time to put Bitcoin on the ignore list. You will never learn anything new about it, only the same stories: 1. It's a disastrous waste of energy resources. 2. HODLers like to compare it with gold and use it as a store of value. Because of this, they will constantly make a noise about it to raise its price. 3. No one will ever use it as an ordinary currency to buy simple things. Oh, you could buy Tesla wit…

1. You don't decide whats a waste of energy or not. 2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLYYh4aPXAM 3. Bitcoin Mining will make investments in renewable energy a lot less riskier as you can scale up as much as you want and always have a buyer. This drives out fossil fuel miners 4. Once bitcoins true price has been found, holders will spend to consume as much as they need/want to. Just like every other currency, except…

I don't think you could ever find the "true price" of a pure store of value asset like Bitcoin. Gold has been around for thousands of years and is still volatile enough that no one would want to use it for daily transactions.

The characteristics of a great store of value are different than that of a great currency - it seems naive to me to think that Bitcoin would ever act like a fiat currency that way.

Re: What I Think of Bitcoin

#143
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But who knows what we'll all be thinking when 2140 arrives?

Block reward is now 6.25 btc, and fees reward is about 1.5 btc. Every 4 years block reward halves, so in the next two halving block reward will be much less than fee reward, making it more and more irrelevant. The 2140 is the date where it reaches 0, but it will be completely irrelevant in 12 years (3 more halving cycles).

But doesn't the value of BTC go up as the reward halves? So "3 more halving cycles" should be counteracted by each coin being 8 times more valuable, no? I could very well be wrong, but that's what seems intuitive to me (I don't follow crypto very closely).

Re: What I Think of Bitcoin

#144

This post should be mostly discounted because Ray doesn't really seem to be aware of the true risk of the Tether scam, the biggest component of and risk to Bitcoin's value. For those not aware, Tether is a "stable coin" that issues tokens that supposedly represent dollars and can be used as a medium of exchange. However, it's widely suspected that Tether is unbacked and printing fake dollars and even Tether itself ha…

This reply should be mostly discounted because the author doesn't really seem to be able to do basic research. Tether imploding would actually be good for Bitcoin.

Re: What I Think of Bitcoin

#145
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tether FUD always returns when there's an influx of a lot newcomers to Bitcoin. It's been debunked over and over. Here's one by Nic Carter that explains why these "takedowns" are completely wrong: https://medium.com/@nic__carter/assessing-bitcoins-liquidity...

According to Tether's own transparency page [0], there's $30 billion of USD sitting in some random bank, somewhere. No, they haven't told anybody where it is, and they have never released an audit. Yes, they are still delaying the NY Attorney General's investigation [1]. We know that at least $850 million has been seized and lost for good [2]. No, they don't report that on the transparency page. [0] https://wallet.te…

Honest question,

If people are thinking of buying and selling BTC, should they start with another crypto currency until the Tether issue is resolved?

Re: What I Think of Bitcoin

#146
post #32
post #13

I think Dalio used to be more against Bitcoin. His writing/books are definitely worth reading though.

I liked the first part of his book, that was a biography. The second part with the principles seemed strange. Meetings had realtime feedback dials so you tell the person listening you were bored? Every meeting is recorded and kept forever. I'm working from memory, but it seemed cultish and strange.

[deleted]

Re: What I Think of Bitcoin

#147
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Excuse me, how is this different from banks, which have money to cover ~1% of their deposit liabilities? Scratch that, US and UK banks, for example, now have 0% reserve requirements.

UK and US banks absolutely do have reserve requirements and they are neither 1% nor 0%. I have no idea where you're getting that from. The reserve requirements vary by type of bank and type and risk weighting of asset. Here is the documentation that explains the capital requirements for a regulated entity (not just banks, but including banks) in the UK https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/glossary/G1567.html

Capital requirements, not reserve requirements.

Re: What I Think of Bitcoin

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. You don't decide whats a waste of energy or not. 2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLYYh4aPXAM 3. Bitcoin Mining will make investments in renewable energy a lot less riskier as you can scale up as much as you want and always have a buyer. This drives out fossil fuel miners 4. Once bitcoins true price has been found, holders will spend to consume as much as they need/want to. Just like every other currency, except…

I don't think you could ever find the "true price" of a pure store of value asset like Bitcoin. Gold has been around for thousands of years and is still volatile enough that no one would want to use it for daily transactions. The characteristics of a great store of value are different than that of a great currency - it seems naive to me to think that Bitcoin would ever act like a fiat currency that way.

It's because the currency gold is priced in is going down year by year. Why should you spend your gold if your fiat is worth less tomorrow?

That's besides the point that gold is practically unusable as a currency for convenience reasons (divisibility, verification, storage, transportation).

A great currency is a currency that preserves your value over time, as currency is what you earn for spending your time and skill. You shouldn't be forced to take a risk to maintain your wealth. Today it's risky not to divest your fiat.

Re: What I Think of Bitcoin

#149
post #51

> I should clarify what I said about its supply. Although Bitcoin is limited in supply, digital currencies are not limited in supply because new ones have come along and will continue to come along to compete so the supply of Bitcoin-like assets should, and competition will, play a role in determining Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices. In fact I assume that better ones will come along and displace this one beca…

It's taken decades for IPv6 to make inroads onto the internet. Network effects are extremely strong when it comes to protocols and it's not easy even after something better comes along.

Re: What I Think of Bitcoin

#150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another way of saying "gold-like asset" or "store of value" is that Bitcoin codifies wealth inequality in an algorithm with a rigidity similar to physical assets, creating mathematical obstacles to block democratic attempts at redistribution away from an elite class of early adopters. Thus "protecting wealth" from the rest of humanity. However profitable, useful, or entertaining one might find that as a fringe commod…

This is one part that I feel doesn't get talked about enough. A future where people move to bitcoin does extremely weird things to wealth distribution, where wealth is basically a function of the point in time of a person's switching to bitcoin more than anything else. I don't see how such a dissociation between wealth and effort/value/productivity could ever do good things for a society. I'm also confused about how…

>wealth is basically a function of the point in time of a person's switching to bitcoin more than anything else

This isn't any different from other periods of great change in the past. A good chunk of the wealthy in the world are made up of those early to the industrial revolution, computer revolution, and internet revolution. This is just another step.

Eventually people will stop being early to Bitcoin and things will just be "normal" again until the next big change comes along.

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