How many times has this story been presented over different names and titles?
Have we already been visited by aliens?
141–150 of 366 posts
Re: Have we already been visited by aliens?
#142Earlier quoted context omitted.
There seems to be a giant mismatch about what side is open minded. People who think its most likely aliens think it’s closed minded to assign that low probability, presumably because we’re this tiny corner of the universe. People who think it’s most likely not aliens Think it’s closed minded to assign everything else low probability, presumably because aliens are a tiny corner of everything else. Is it a misapplicati…
Their best future course is to stop sniping at one another. It is possible that it's aliens. It is possible that it's not. We don't have enough evidence even to estimate probabilities, so anything further is pure speculation. Speculation is a look that wears no better on conservatives than on radicals. There is hardly a field to be found where young radicals are not promoting evidence for what the tenured consider an…
> Loeb is right about one thing: the notion of "extraordinary evidence" is very destructive. Evidence is evidence.
I agree with pretty much everything you're saying except this. Though I still do agree with this a bit. It seems like a shorthand for "be bayesian" that's unfortunately taken too far too frequently. But if I have a strong prior one way or another, I will need stronger evidence to turn me around.
+1 on your main point though. Why can't more people be more comfortable in a state of uncertainty ;_;
Re: Have we already been visited by aliens?
#143Tangential to the article, but I’m not sure why more isn’t mentioned about what I consider to be the most likely reason we haven’t been visited by aliens: they probably exist somewhere due to the sheer size of the universe, but the speed of light is indeed the fundamental limit to classical information transfer as our current understanding of physics predicts, and therefore we are simply too far away from any sort of…
This has been my basic take on it. However, if you want a point of concern, I'll throw out some alternatives. I'm going to ignore generation ships, because those seem a trifle unlikely (too complex, rather cruel to the inhabitants), but let's imagine some embryo-laden carriers, freeze-dried aliens, and von Neumann probes. Now, again, that's still a long way for very little gain. There's nothing physical you could bri…
The solar system is between arms.
Re: Have we already been visited by aliens?
#144Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ridiculing scientists for plausible hypothesis seems very unscientific.
This is very common in science. New theories are usually rejected and ridiculed until/if they develop enough evidence behind them to sway people. Some careers are destroyed. Some scientists are only vindicated posthumously. The process can take many decades. Scientists, like most humans, are not that open-minded and are subject to the same group-think blind spots. I think if we could get better at being open-minded a…
Time to break out Thomas Kuhn.
Re: Have we already been visited by aliens?
#145Re: Have we already been visited by aliens?
#146It’s not aliens. Nothing can convince me that there’s any practical way to travel the distances between the stars. If you don’t agree then I think you fundamentally don’t grasp how incomprehensibly vast those distances are. I absolutely believe in life in other worlds but there’s no way to travel from star to star.
Angels vs Viruses.
About 20 years ago I read an interesting theory about how theoretical aliens would look to us if we happen to find them. The theory was that the assuming that there is life other than earth's in the universe, the probability of it being within ±10,000 years of current human development (i.e being similar to us now ± 10,000 years) is very very small. Most likely, life outside the earth will be 20k, 30k or even 50k, or more years in the future technologically, socially and medically advanced.
Think about, how a human now would look like to a human 50,000 years ago. Or how humanity would look like in 50,000 years. For all I know, we will be able to replace every organ (lab tissue growing), live for a LONG time (Hyperbaric oxygen therapy, metformin) and other unimaginable things.
So, if we encountered "space traveling" aliens, their frame of reference would be completely out of our understanding.
Re: Have we already been visited by aliens?
#147Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tectonic plates was another big one.
This is a current fun topic with some controversy related to tectonic plates: do solar flares cause earthquakes? https://astronomy.com/news/2020/07/powerful-eruptions-on-the...
Despite being a really stupid-sounding premise, that is actually kind of interesting.
Re: Have we already been visited by aliens?
#148Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is very common in science. New theories are usually rejected and ridiculed until/if they develop enough evidence behind them to sway people. Some careers are destroyed. Some scientists are only vindicated posthumously. The process can take many decades. Scientists, like most humans, are not that open-minded and are subject to the same group-think blind spots. I think if we could get better at being open-minded a…
And they are careerist... My Post-doc colleague during my PhD@MIT was explaining this trick he does to get his system working that he never publishes (one very small step of 100 steps). He was concerned that if he published the step, it would hurt his chances at getting a professorship. It’s exactly the same logic behind why code is not published. Because ethically you can ‘hand wave it away’ as obvious to other expe…
How can you be a post-doc without publishing?
Re: Have we already been visited by aliens?
#149Earlier quoted context omitted.
And they are careerist... My Post-doc colleague during my PhD@MIT was explaining this trick he does to get his system working that he never publishes (one very small step of 100 steps). He was concerned that if he published the step, it would hurt his chances at getting a professorship. It’s exactly the same logic behind why code is not published. Because ethically you can ‘hand wave it away’ as obvious to other expe…
How can you be a post-doc without publishing?
I read that as, one step of his experimental procedure isn't published.
Re: Have we already been visited by aliens?
#150Earlier quoted context omitted.
And they are careerist... My Post-doc colleague during my PhD@MIT was explaining this trick he does to get his system working that he never publishes (one very small step of 100 steps). He was concerned that if he published the step, it would hurt his chances at getting a professorship. It’s exactly the same logic behind why code is not published. Because ethically you can ‘hand wave it away’ as obvious to other expe…
How can you be a post-doc without publishing?
I think what was meant could be described by a joke: "professor writes a theorem proof on 6 pages, removes pages 3 and 4 and writes 'trivially leads to'"