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If you want peace, study war

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Re: If you want peace, study war

#141

Post by phoinix »

The truth of the matter is that all wars are the result of economic incentives. As a Greek i can assure you that almost all the wars of Greece to everyone else, and of Romans, were the result of gaining profit. Just like slavery stopped because of education, and educated capitalists with well trained human workers amount to thousand of times more wealth than any amount of slaves, the same holds for wars. We live in a low-war environment because invading in another country and stealing fridges and cars is just unprofitable.

With the current technology, computer, genetics, and just the sheer creativity of the human mind, any country can contribute to the world trade, and start making bricks from sand using bacteria, any amount of food if they plant pine trees or palm trees which they both have an edible and highly nutritious bark, poison free too. The bark of these trees diminish the thirst so humans need a lot less water, contrary to, say producing livestock for meat. It is not economically viable any more, to create an educated and highly productive population, just to send them killed in a moments notice.

I am all about occasionally suspending the peace for a war, for one philosophical reason. The only truth in the world, is death. Someone can bribe a basketball team to lose, but not an army. No one dies for money. When one male kills another in a fight, we all know the dead gave it all to stay alive. When there is too much unhealthy peace in place, people start believing in lies.

That recent covid hysteria, i think it proves me right.

Re: If you want peace, study war

#142

Post by patcon »

sudhirj wrote: post #16

There are notes in Sapiens proposing that war (the violent kind) is no longer useful / does not produce outcomes because the global economy has shifted from one of physical resources to knowledge based. That it no longer makes sense to fight over things that aren't worth as much these days, like land, oil or gold, when you can just trade. Most of money comes from peace time commerce. This seems accurate, but time wil…

Seems accurate, at least until increasingly extractive trading (which externalizes almost all costs), leads to the collapse of the ecological systems underneath it. Then we're back to good old fashioned war-war :/

Re: If you want peace, study war

#143

Post by jjk166 »

saiya-jin wrote: post #110
foxyv wrote: post #107

"Causes of Civil War are also, that the Wealth of the Nation is in too few mens hands, and that no certain means are provided to keep all men from a necessity either to beg, or steal, or be Souldiers." - William Petty While this is a quote about civil war, it points out a key fact. A country with a strong middle class is much less likely to send its children to war over stupid things. Even the USA barely sent 177,000…

Richer folks also tent to study more and have say more options to expand their mind to various views, cultures and places. Far harder to manipulate/outright brainwash those into some patriotic bullshit about defending your home from those evil bad guys. Unless you force drafts with hard punishments for those avoiding of course, but such an army would have very low morale not only these days.

There's a reason why the draft let people pay someone else to take their place - if the wealthy thought they would find themselves in the trenches too then we would never send forces overseas.

Re: If you want peace, study war

#144

Post by gen220 »

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #133
pkkim wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bret Devereaux of acoup.blog defends the idea of civilian control of the military here, with better references and more eloquently than I can. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1336392888629010437.html In particular, he argues that the way you avoid things like World War II is in part precisely by making sure the military does not make decisions of war and peace.

But the military didn't make the decision to go to war in WWII. Hitler did. The German military was hesitant about the idea.

The link is actually referencing Germany in WWI, not WWII.

For context on that, Bismarck's abdication in 1890 left a leadership vacuum that was was gradually filled-in by military elites, who were more interested in the mechanics of warfare than the nuance of politics. Where Bismarck used military force as political tool, in his absence every problem began to look like something that only the military could solve.

Although, it's worth taking this opportunity to repeat: the same military elites responsible for the tragedy of WWI and the Dolchstoss myth were responsible for appointing Hitler into power and legitimizing his militant tactics. Hindenburg and Ludendorff created Hitler, from inside and outside the establishment, respectively.

Re: If you want peace, study war

#145

Post by dragonwriter »

gen220 wrote: post #144
jeffreyrogers wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the military didn't make the decision to go to war in WWII. Hitler did. The German military was hesitant about the idea.

The link is actually referencing Germany in WWI, not WWII. For context on that, Bismarck's abdication in 1890 left a leadership vacuum that was was gradually filled-in by military elites, who were more interested in the mechanics of warfare than the nuance of politics. Where Bismarck used military force as political tool, in his absence every problem began to look like something that only the military could solve. Al…

> For context on that, Bismarck’s abdication in 1890 left a leadership vacuum that was was gradually filled-in by military elites, who were more interested in the mechanics of warfare than the nuance of politics.

The significance of that, while it shouldn’t be dismissed either, often exaggerated; while, yes, that absolutely did happen, you see in the entirety of Europe, no matter the role of military vs. civilian authority, the myth of offense dominance, aggressive mobilization plans and hair-trigger activation, etc.

Basically everyone, civilian and military, had drawn the wrong conclusions about the direction of the evolution of warfare, and it affected every major powers diplomatic strategy, military posture, etc., because everyone saw the other side getting ahead of them as an existential threat.

Re: If you want peace, study war

#146

Post by AnimalMuppet »

ncmncm wrote: post #101
lmilcin wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's very simplistic view on military. Think of a corporations that make all decisions at top level vs corporations that at the top level mostly worry about creating correct environment for the individual contributors and low level managers to be able to make right decisions, individually. US military won the IIWW war because it created that right environment. Mobilizing people (people who are not interested in ach…

The US military did not win the war, at least in Europe. They pottered around in Africa, Italy, and Belgium while the Soviet army won the war. Ten of the ten biggest battles were on the eastern front, while a tiny fraction of axis assets held off the West for years. Western bombing (despite huge losses) had negligible effect on German industrial production, which increased right up to 1945. (US industrial imports to…

What were you going to use to enforce the blockade? Torpedoes?

Re: If you want peace, study war

#147

Post by bluGill »

m0llusk wrote: post #132

This is a backward way of coming to terms with conflict. In the modern world war is increasingly an outmoded way of handling conflicts. The number of wars, casualties in wars, and so on are a tiny fraction of what they have been historically. The idea that war is the basis of peace is held strongly by those who study wars, but a thorough analysis puts and social inequality and disasters such as famines as being both…

Don't go too far down that road because you can never be sure when a smart (but insane) person will get enough dissatisfied people and go to war. Thus everyone needs to know enough about war so that society as a whole can deal with war if it comes.

How much is left as an open question.

Re: If you want peace, study war

#148

Post by ntsplnkv2 »

Broken_Hippo wrote: post #57
Scramblejams wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

when you can just trade Peacetime commerce requires free waterways. Everyone can "just trade" because the U.S. Navy has guaranteed free navigation of the seas since Bretton Woods[1]. When America withdraws from its security obligations, others will fill the vacuum, with all the uncertainty that implies. A national leader who fears being cut off from essential resources will very logically view war as an option. Edit:…

To be fair, the US doesn't exactly keep out uncertainty or anything like that. US military policy is subject to the whims of the current management - and no one can really expect the US to keep any sort of agreements at this point. Not only that, but enforcement seems to be more aimed at trying to show strength (ships in china seas) or sanctions, and less on making sure folks can trade or have safety. I'd argue that…

> seems to be more aimed at trying to show strength (ships in china seas)

They're showing strength because they want to keep the waterways open for international use.

> and less on making sure folks can trade or have safety.

The US has plenty of anti-piracy efforts across the globe.

Re: If you want peace, study war

#149

Post by AnimalMuppet »

pydry wrote: post #47
Ancapistani wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t have a citation in front of me at four in the morning, but I distinctly recall this exact argument being made prior to the First World War - that the increasing trade between the major powers precluded war because the financial interests were too powerful.

It sort of did, which is why the first step towards war was trade decoupling. I'd say we are in the beginning/mid stages of that now.

Interesting. I recall the idea that wars come when the money spent on the military exceeds the money made in trade. I don't recall how much evidence there is behind the idea, but I think it's an interesting POV...

Re: If you want peace, study war

#150

Post by Bakary »

mrvenkman wrote: post #36

Unfortunately, "We learn from history that we do not learn from history." - Georg Hegel https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/12801-we-learn-from-history...

You can learn from history the same way you can learn how to be a mogul from Bill Gates. That is to say, not much other than general principles and that you have to find your generation's big idea on your own. Certainly nothing that will guarantee anything.
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