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LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

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Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#141
post #128

The CEO commented that he was "happy" with the IPO price. Given that CEO's generally are not happy with leaving 100% on the table, I would surmise he knows it's overvalued.

Is he supposed to publicly comment that he's "disappointed" with the IPO price? I think the Youko CEO did something like that, and just embarrassed himself for being naive...

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#142
post #128

The CEO commented that he was "happy" with the IPO price. Given that CEO's generally are not happy with leaving 100% on the table, I would surmise he knows it's overvalued.

You're correct, according to Henry Blodget at Silicon Alley Insider. The CEO sold some stock last night at $45, which could have been sold for $90 this morning. http://www.businessinsider.com/linked-in-ipo-2011-5-b

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#143
I thought this might be interesting, John Cassisy at the New Yorker claims: "One more cautionary note: Don’t take too seriously the headlines you will see about the market valuing LinkedIn at $8-9 billion. Using the oldest I.P.O. trick in the book, the underwriters only issued 7.84 million shares, thereby creating an artificial shortage. Even at $90 each, the value of LinkedIn’s publicly issued stock is just $706 million. The $8-9 billion figure comes from taking the market price and applying it to the rest of the company’s common shares, more than eighty million of them which haven’t been issued yet. It may well be several years before all of these shares are trading on the open market. At that point, we will have a better idea of what LinkedIn is really worth."

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2011/05/li...

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#145
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

and assuming you can find shares to short, and are willing to pay the borrow cost.

During the first 30 days after an IPO, the underwriters are not allowed to lend shares for short sale. Additionally, number of shares are limited. The entire float is not available on the first day of trading. So today, it is probably impossible to short. 30 days from now, it should be available to short. http://cash.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/062905.asp

put options?

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#146
post #5

LinkedIn made $15 million dollars last year, and they just raised $660 million dollars out of the gate in this IPO. And, this IPO values LinkedIn at somewhere close to 6.5 billion dollars. A valuation of 6.5 billion dollars on $15 million net income. Let that sink in.

FWIW, they had 250M revenue last year. 15M in earnings might indicate they are aggressively investing in growth. So if you're going to look at that critically, investigate where the other $235M is being spent.

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#147
Great news for related sites too -- I'm thinking of Quora and Namesake.

Quora has been able to thrive and create a truly compelling site in a short time, even with LinkedIn Answers having so many numbers in its favor.

Namesake has been getting traction and executing well -- their valuation has definitely just gone up as well.

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That really doesn't make any sense. As anyone who knows the stock market will tell you, if you can guess the price of a stock before the market opens, you'd be a wealthy man. But underwriters are conservative with initial IPO pricings because 1) they have no real idea where a stock will go once it's public and 2) they want the stock to go up after it opens (IPOs that don't do this are said to be "broken" and sometime…

Those are good points, and I'm not arguing that they left a lot of money on the table or didn't, but what I am disputing is where you said "We won't know whether the $45 price was optimal or not for a while --it may seem expensive in 90 days when the price settles down." Why does the price 90 days from now matter to the judgement of whether or not the initial sale - today's sale only - was a success? If the price dro…

The reason is because (in the absence of clairvoyance) the performance of stocks is evaluated over time. If the price is closer to $45 in a month or two, it'll be easier to say that today's price jump was an aberration. If the price is $180 in three months, it'll be possible to say that today's price is actually too low.

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#149
post #91
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on there IPO prospectus from sec.gov: Year; Revenue; Costs; Income 2008; 78,773; 84,282; (4,522) 2009; 120,127; 123,482; (3,973) 2010; 243,099; 223,523; 15,385 expense growth is 46%, 82% yoy. revenue growth is 52%, 103% yoy. So, you have a company that is growing revenue faster than expenses, has 100% year over year revenue growth, and has just hit the inflection point to be profitable... and you want to place…

And just to be clear, an incredibly easy ballpark valuation would be to just take the midpoints of the rev / cost growth and go 3 years out... which gives $1.3B revenue on $1.1B costs = $200M profit. A slightly high market multiple on that (18) would still be only $3.6B. And there will be dilution, selling pressure from insiders whose lockup periods will be ending, lumpiness in the numbers... I certainly would not bu…

But... I will say that I would be encouraged if I were a shareholder by this

Why else would a CEO say anything different? I've been through an IPO and basically heard the same thing from the CEO.

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#150
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>*"they just raised $660 million dollars out of the gate in this IPO" No, that's not how it works. LinkedIn priced their IPO at $45/share, meaning they raised $352.8 million. The share price right now has no impact on how much money they raised.

They left a lot of money on the table.

This forbes blog suggests an auction would have been fairer, and I strongly agree. Institutional investors who got in on the IPO are just printing money, whereas a google-style auction would have given more of that money to the owners.

http://blogs.forbes.com/greatspeculations/2011/05/19/linkedi...

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