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Joining Apple 40 years ago

mondaynote.com

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Re: Joining Apple 40 years ago

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> $27K/year ($65.3K in 2020 dollars) Side bar: that is a breathtaking amount of inflation in just 35 years. Even if wages kept up with inflation, the impact this would have on cash savings is just devastating.

> that is a breathtaking amount of inflation in just 35 years. That's under 3% inflation which is a not breathtaking. The Fed targets 2%, which helps avoid deflationary spirals and helps both stability and lowers unemployment, two of their mandates. >Even if wages kept up with inflation, Wages have surpassed inflation in just about every income bracket for the past 100 years. And when you factor in total remuneration…

> That's under 3% inflation which is a not breathtaking.

Perhaps it is better to say that I am caught off-guard by the power of compound interest.

> The Fed targets 2%, which helps avoid deflationary spirals and helps both stability and lowers unemployment, two of their mandates.

I am generally skeptical of the Fed, but that's an entirely different discussion, so I'll just nod my head and move along.

> Wages have surpassed inflation in just about every income bracket for the past 100 years. And when you factor in total remuneration, returns to workers are even higher. Here's 50+ years of data [1]

That is good to see, thanks!

> No one in their right mind holds cash savings for 35 years. It's a ludicrously long time to simply hold your savings in a cash pile.

True, but people do usually place their money in a savings account. And while in theory the interest from the savings account should exceed inflation, it seems to me the mere fact of inflation means that people who have primarily cash savings are needlessly penalized.

But while it is absurd to store you money in a coffee can in the shed for 30+ years, I'm not sure it should be.

Re: Joining Apple 40 years ago

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish there was a third entity in addition to Intel and Qualcomm that produced computer processing units that Windows would run on. Some kind of advanced micro devices that outperformed both Intel and Qualcomm would be really interesting to watch.

AMD has been doing great work over the past few years, but they've traditionally been a much smaller outfit (market cap for Intel is about 50% larger than AMD), and their work over the years has been off and on (they frequently compete more on price than anything else, although they did win the race to 1GHz two decades ago). I doubt it'd ever pass legal muster, but if Microsoft were to buy them (and their x86 license…

> AMD has been doing great work over the past few years

Yes - thus "MS's fortunes" is also tied to AMD.

> but they've traditionally been a much smaller outfit

Tradition isn't really the key here. Intel does explore more markets and holds much more market share (specifically desktop and laptop PCs) right now. AMD has been steadily growing in the desktop/laptop space, aside from their semi-custom (console) business, and they have made meaningful strides in performance and efficiency that at least keep Windows (and thus Microsoft) in the game now that Apple Silicon M1 has brought Macs to the table as competitive performers.

But - I'm less convinced Microsoft has to copy Apple and design efficient ARM chips in-house in order to remain competitive, at least in the PC business. I think we'll see some shifts in market share from Windows to MacOS, initially in laptops, and the rest will remain to be seen, but Apple should certainly become competitive in other PC areas as they roll out their new lines of CPUs. There are plenty of areas where AMD's performance CPUs remain very competitive, and Windows is still the preferred "mainstream" and "gamer" platform.

Re: Joining Apple 40 years ago

#144
post #60
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I moved to the Bay Area in '84, bought a house in ~89 - house prices had just run up to what people considered then as high levels - Real Estate then leveled out and stopped rising for half a decade - it's done that on and off for 40 years - it was never 'cheap' at the time. Prop 13 was already in place in '84 - the only way to get rid of it is to vote it out, it's long past time

I had a couple companies interested in recruiting me to the Valley in the mid 90s or so. One of the reasons I decided not to pursue was cost of living relative to the not inexpensive Boston area. And the companies even acknowledged that was the case.

Yep, I also had a job offer in the bay area in either '99 or 00' (time flies!) I was seriously considering. After doing the math, I'd have had to make almost triple my flyover state job at the time so I didn't pull the trigger.

That was probably an accidentally smart decision since months later the world imploded, and the company giving the offer went up in even more spectacular fashion that most.

Re: Joining Apple 40 years ago

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the time that's passed since then, you'd be one of the old rich person. Austin sounds like an up-and-coming Valley, as do a few other really gorgeous locations around the US. The trick is to pick one and settle in early.

Minneapolis is also gorgeous, and relatively cheap. There's a "greenway" for bikes and pedestrians that's a converted railway. It has a huge music and art scene. There are tons of local breweries and more than a handful of startups and big name companies with a presence there.

Minneapolis is a glorified suburb unfortunately. I grew up in North Minneapolis without a car and know very well first hand how the no-car lifestyle works even in the most well-serviced and dense areas on offer. That's ignoring the weather.

However, if you enjoy that style of living I do agree it might be one of the best places in the nation. If I ever get tired of urban living I plan on moving back.

Re: Joining Apple 40 years ago

#146

Can you imagine moving to the Bay Area in the 80s? To grow up when land was still cheap, before college competition was cutthroat and unaffordable, when relatively simple competence could get you a solid job and VC/PE firms weren't plundering and incentivizing the latest 30-second attention-span app to reach $1B? It would be me living in Los Altos now, instead of the old rich people who I curse for refusing to die or…

Combination of high income and low cost of living is ever elusive. We saw the dream get a glimmer of hope with remote work, only to be soon crushed by CoL adjustment announcements. You would be hard-pressed to find, anytime in history and anywhere on planet earth, a time and place where salaries are really high and CoL is really low.

>You would be hard-pressed to find, anytime in history and anywhere on planet earth, a time and place where salaries are really high and CoL is really low.

US, Germany and most of western europe in the post war boom till the late 80's.

A factory assembly worker at VW could buy an apartment and feed his family on a single income back then. Fat chance of doing anything like that now.

Re: Joining Apple 40 years ago

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that is a breathtaking amount of inflation in just 35 years. That's under 3% inflation which is a not breathtaking. The Fed targets 2%, which helps avoid deflationary spirals and helps both stability and lowers unemployment, two of their mandates. >Even if wages kept up with inflation, Wages have surpassed inflation in just about every income bracket for the past 100 years. And when you factor in total remuneration…

> That's under 3% inflation which is a not breathtaking. Perhaps it is better to say that I am caught off-guard by the power of compound interest. > The Fed targets 2%, which helps avoid deflationary spirals and helps both stability and lowers unemployment, two of their mandates. I am generally skeptical of the Fed, but that's an entirely different discussion, so I'll just nod my head and move along. > Wages have sur…

>but people do usually place their money in a savings account.

No, they don't. Some people have some money in saving accounts, but the VAST majority of people's savings are in houses and in retirement plans, which are not cash holdings. Only a very small amount of people have the majority of their savings only in cash for periods long enough that compound inflation kills the savings.

As to things like the Fed, and inflation:

Every single country in the world has chosen to use central banking due to the lessons learned over the past few hundred years, and especially during the Great Depression, that having a politically independent central bank target low inflation results in the most stable, predicable economy. It gives decent ability to balance shocks, lower unemployment, make business smooth and predictable, and avoid deflationary spirals, which are devastating. Compared the period right before the world started understanding how this can work, there is no question that volatility and destructive cycles are now vastly better.

I get the idea that you have not ever studied economics, especially monetary policy, but just like you probably have not studied quantum physics or brain surgery or ancient Egyptian hieroglyphics, just know that mankind has put tremendous effort into all of these and has learned some very useful things.

So - given that centuries of good thinkers following centuries and hundreds of countries of evidence have come to the conclusion that low inflation and central banking are wise, and not the product of conspiracy Illuminati nonsense, then you should adjust your beliefs that this is wise, in the same way you'd understand medicine, physics, math, etc., are all studied and the experts do indeed understand them vastly better than the general populace.

Thus, since there will be targeted inflation of around 2%, it is dumb to assume one should simply save all their money as cash. Invest it in broad index funds, or something similar.

>I am caught off-guard by the power of compound interest.

All the more reason to not hold cash, which has zero reason to grow, and has a very solid reason to shrink in buying power, and invest in productive assets with savings. The compound growth of productive assets then works for you, not against you.

>But while it is absurd to store you money in a coffee can in the shed for 30+ years, I'm not sure it should be.

It is absurd given the rest of the evidence around us.

Re: Joining Apple 40 years ago

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> $27K/year ($65.3K in 2020 dollars) Side bar: that is a breathtaking amount of inflation in just 35 years. Even if wages kept up with inflation, the impact this would have on cash savings is just devastating.

> that is a breathtaking amount of inflation in just 35 years. That's under 3% inflation which is a not breathtaking. The Fed targets 2%, which helps avoid deflationary spirals and helps both stability and lowers unemployment, two of their mandates. >Even if wages kept up with inflation, Wages have surpassed inflation in just about every income bracket for the past 100 years. And when you factor in total remuneration…

> Wages have surpassed inflation in just about every income bracket for the past 100 years. And when you factor in total remuneration, returns to workers are even higher. Here's 50+ years of data [1]

> [1] https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44705.pdf

This document is 47 pages long. Can you cite the page or section you're referring to?

Re: Joining Apple 40 years ago

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's under 3% inflation which is a not breathtaking. Perhaps it is better to say that I am caught off-guard by the power of compound interest. > The Fed targets 2%, which helps avoid deflationary spirals and helps both stability and lowers unemployment, two of their mandates. I am generally skeptical of the Fed, but that's an entirely different discussion, so I'll just nod my head and move along. > Wages have sur…

>but people do usually place their money in a savings account. No, they don't. Some people have some money in saving accounts, but the VAST majority of people's savings are in houses and in retirement plans, which are not cash holdings. Only a very small amount of people have the majority of their savings only in cash for periods long enough that compound inflation kills the savings. As to things like the Fed, and in…

> I get the idea that you have not ever studied economics, especially monetary policy

That is one hell of a presumption. Did I offend you?

> but just like you probably have not studied quantum physics or brain surgery or ancient Egyptian hieroglyphics, just know that mankind has put tremendous effort into all of these and has learned some very useful things.

This is a complete non-sequitor. It's physics envy and posturing nonsense. The successes of physics and medicine have no bearing on whether mainstream economics is a complete crock. In the soft sciences like economics, the expert doesn't necessarily bring more to the table than the reasonably well-read layman. I'm not saying there is no value in studying these subjects, but the collective "expert opinion" is not in anyway "science".

Maybe you should study some philosophy?

Re: Joining Apple 40 years ago

#150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>but people do usually place their money in a savings account. No, they don't. Some people have some money in saving accounts, but the VAST majority of people's savings are in houses and in retirement plans, which are not cash holdings. Only a very small amount of people have the majority of their savings only in cash for periods long enough that compound inflation kills the savings. As to things like the Fed, and in…

> I get the idea that you have not ever studied economics, especially monetary policy That is one hell of a presumption. Did I offend you? > but just like you probably have not studied quantum physics or brain surgery or ancient Egyptian hieroglyphics, just know that mankind has put tremendous effort into all of these and has learned some very useful things. This is a complete non-sequitor. It's physics envy and post…

>That is one hell of a presumption. Did I offend you?

I'm not offended. You've stated how surprised you are about several thing that someone having studied such things would have seen. I didn't mean to offend - but to point out that if you have not studied them, it's not unreasonable to assume those who have worked on them for a lifetime have some knowledge about them you may not.

Did you study them?

>This is a complete non-sequitor. It's physics envy and posturing nonsense.

No, it's putting some context. If you've studied some complex field in depth, you know how detailed and useful the knowledge is, and that it's generally opaque to those who have not put the time in.

>The successes of physics and medicine have no bearing on whether mainstream economics is a complete crock.

Yes, they do, since all rely on the same processes to weed out error over time.

>In the soft sciences like economics, the expert doesn't necessarily bring more to the table than the reasonably well-read layman.

Wow. Ok, now I am sure you have not studied them at any academic or professional level, and I see why you're so mad and believe such fringe things about money. Having met enough people like you that are sure you or people like you bring as much to an econ discussion as experts despite what you've written here is the epitome of Dunning Krueger. And that I did mean directly. I never understand why people that know a lot about some area of knowledge assume they are expert level proficient in others without putting equivalent time in.

Have a nice day.

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