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The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

lynalden.com

141–150 of 367 posts

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#141

> At this stage, instead of just blue-collar labor in America being hurt by the system, the geopolitical ambitions of United States hegemony are also subverted. As far as Americans were concerned, for 40+ years the petrodollar system used to work for the top half of the income spectrum but not really the bottom half, and now it neither particularly works for the top half nor the bottom half. It’s now a system without…

I'm here to tell you that Democrat controlled Congress will NEVER support the regulatory reforms necessary for domestic manufacturing to flourish in the US. At best, they will enact protectionist legislation that will result in a modest increase in US MFG, but nothing on the order necessary to make the US a major player in the global supply chain.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He ended up reversing the steady gain we've had in manufacturing jobs since 2010, albeit indirectly, because he botched the response to covid. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES3000000001

The argument against his covid response was in not using more aggressive lockdowns. Which is the thing that increases unemployment. You seem to be arguing that more lockdowns, which increase unemployment in the short term, would have reduced unemployment in the short term (i.e. the period measured in that data).

uniform lockdowns that were widely enforced for 2 weeks and then followed by masks, social distancing, and hand washing would have been more effective, and harmed the economy less.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#143
post #70
post #5

Lyn Alden has become my favorite macroeconomist through the Covid crisis. I bought a bunch of puts in February 2020, they went way up in March till the Fed stepped in and then went down. I went looking for answers on how to understand macroeconomics and Alden has had a lot of interesting takes on it.

If so, assets such as global equities, quality residential real estate, precious metals, industrial commodities, and alternatives such as Bitcoin, are likely to do well. Do you plan on shifting your investment strategy?

I don't like Bitcoin and I disagree with Alden on that in investment. I am also not a fan of precious metals.

I currently have the majority of my portfolio in stocks in Australia, Sweden, Japan, Switzerland; in residential real estate, and in puts on overvalued tech stocks and TLT.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#144
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> He didn’t do anything that actually slowed the loss of our manufacturing base while president. Come on now. Say what you will about the effect of the tax changes on inequality, they're clearly designed to make it more attractive to do business in the US, e.g. lower corporate rates and allowing capital expenditures to be deducted immediately rather than amortized over a period of years. It's hard to argue that tarif…

> It's hard to argue that tariffs on goods from China don't make it less attractive to buy goods from China. It's true that tariffs will make buying goods from China less appealing, but if you look at the outcome, it's not really a win. Consumers are paying more for the same goods, companies are scrambling to move their production to India and Malaysia, and there's not a significant increase in US manufacturing. A pr…

> It's true that tariffs will make buying goods from China less appealing, but if you look at the outcome, it's not really a win. Consumers are paying more for the same goods, companies are scrambling to move their production to India and Malaysia, and there's not a significant increase in US manufacturing.

If you look at the actual outcome, it was that China devalued their currency or otherwise lowered prices to eat the tariffs, because their nightmare is manufacturing getting a foothold anywhere else, whether it's India or the US. Which is a win for the US because we have China paying us billions of dollars in tariffs without paying significantly higher prices for goods.

That doesn't help US manufacturing directly, but it gives the US a lot of leverage in trade negotiations because now China wants that situation to stop happening. And in the meantime the money can be used for tax cuts or subsidies to US businesses.

We could also just raise the tariffs more, for as long as China decides they want to keep paying them instead of letting them push manufacturing out of China.

> Not only tax cuts, but subsidies and investment aimed at increasing manufacturing in specific industries

Tax cuts and subsidies are equivalent. And it's not clear why targeting specific industries is useful rather than giving the same incentives across all industries.

> A concerted program to identify labor and skills shortages, and address them

Address them how? With more subsidies, which is really just equivalent to tax cuts again? This is the sort of thing markets are better at than governments.

> A program to identify the missing parts of manufacturing ecosystems and address them. One reason why electronics are made in China is not only cheap labor, but access to a whole ecosystem of suppliers and other manufacturers. Need one million PCBs assembled, plastic casings made, half a million cardboard boxes printed, instruction manuals printed and bound, well, there's a whole ecosystem of partners ready to get all of these things done with the capacity to have a relatively short turnaround time.

This is certainly a problem, but it seems to imply the opposite of your other proposed solutions. You would then not want to target specific segments but rather have broad incentives to engage in all different kinds of business activity, i.e. general tax cuts.

> A clear bipartisan commitment that this is something that won't get deprioritized or axed one or two administrations later, but something that is of national interest and that both parties agree to push forward

This seems like something you need Democrats to do rather than something you need Trump to do.

> A national focus on a key differentiator from other countries' manufacturing. China has cheap, Japan, Switzerland, and Germany have good, the US has big and sturdy maybe?

What does this even mean? Countries don't need to differentiate like this. How is it even differentiation when three of the four countries you listed are using the same one?

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Default is another option. Inflation hurts everybody. Cutting spending is the only way to start repairing the economy for the long term. Government consumes 31% of the fruit of our labor. Money that could be left in the hands of people to drive the economy.

The beauty of inflation is that it hurts you in direct proportion to how well off you are, and it can't be dodged (i.e. it's like a wealth tax, only actually achievable). We could drive inflation while also ameliorating a lot of the pain it would cause by implementing UBI (in fact, I'm pretty sure big deficit spending is the only way UBI will ever happen). Defaulting would screw a lot of institutional pension investo…

Inflation can easily be dodged by those with foreknowledge (hold your wealth in assets whose value will inflate). Borrow lots of money at a low fixed rate to buy property and you might even make a profit. Unexpected inflation is a wealth tax on people who loan out their wealth at fixed rates or store most of it in cash, and an sales tax on people and organisations unable to renegotiate salary or contracts. Exactly who is negatively (and positively) affected is complicated, but it certainly isn't directly proportional to how well off people are.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#146
post #54
post #6

> More troublesome, the inherent flaw of having the global reserve currency, in a theme that goes back to economist Robert Triffin from over half a century ago, is that in order to maintain the global reserve currency, the country must supply the world with its currency via structural deficits in one form or another. That "structural deficit" means allowing manufacturing to move overseas. The trade war is a distracti…

> Holders of bonds would be absolutely wrecked. That's a lot of institutions and wealthy individuals. That's also a lot of people with 401k's, college savings for their kids, pension funds, and non-profit endowments. I have a feeling that most wealthy individuals and institutions will be just fine, it's the little guy and middle class families that will feel the pain, as usual.

Yeah, it's people in the US who would be wrecked. Sure, people outside, too, but the point of the idea was to help the American workers. If you help them, but destroy their pensions and their 401ks and their IRAs... are they actually better off?

(And the answer is, some are and some aren't, but it's not a clearly good idea.)

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#147
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the only reason that a global reserve currency hasnt changed yet is that there are no sound currencies to use. USD was selected as the global reserve because it was backed by gold. We went and fucked that up. Now there are no currencies left backed by anything but promises. If there was a large enough country with gold backed money the reserve currency would have switched decades ago.

I have not read one single serious justification (as in, empirical) for using gold as the backing of a currency. There are many indications that, historically, the boom and bust cycles that exist naturally are exacerbated when tying the value of currency to (often easily manipulated to be artificially) scarce things like gold. The world has moved beyond tying the value of our currencies to material goods. Digital "co…

The only credible one is that it limits certain kinds of bad behavior, but that may come at a substantial cost.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#148
post #7

Which country would benefit from a weaker dollar? Germany wants to sell their cars. China their phones. If Americans can't afford them any more, then a big market would disappear.

US self sufficient manufacturers who don't rely on commodities would benefit with a weaker dollar. US consumers will get fucked with a weaker dollar. Imagine having to pay $7 a gallon for oil instead of $3. There is another consequence. A lot of other countries will become "rich" all of a sudden. Which means they won't use US dollar as a medium of exchange and America would have to "earn" by exporting. Which means pe…

Point taken but the oil example isn't the best example on imports as we have since about 2010 really dropped imports with Obama's "All of the above" energy strategy which included opening the Arctic to drilling twice. Here is an example article on the subject: ...U.S. Exports More Petroleum Than It Imports In September and October https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2019/11/26/making-hi...

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He ended up reversing the steady gain we've had in manufacturing jobs since 2010, albeit indirectly, because he botched the response to covid. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES3000000001

The argument against his covid response was in not using more aggressive lockdowns. Which is the thing that increases unemployment. You seem to be arguing that more lockdowns, which increase unemployment in the short term, would have reduced unemployment in the short term (i.e. the period measured in that data).

More aggressive lockdowns initially could have limited the initial spread, and from there reasonable precautions could have been effective. Disparaging mask use is also generally considered to be harmful.

Cutting funding to certain CDC programs may also have been detrimental.

https://fortune.com/2020/02/26/coronavirus-covid-19-cdc-budg...

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#150
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the only reason that a global reserve currency hasnt changed yet is that there are no sound currencies to use. USD was selected as the global reserve because it was backed by gold. We went and fucked that up. Now there are no currencies left backed by anything but promises. If there was a large enough country with gold backed money the reserve currency would have switched decades ago.

I have not read one single serious justification (as in, empirical) for using gold as the backing of a currency. There are many indications that, historically, the boom and bust cycles that exist naturally are exacerbated when tying the value of currency to (often easily manipulated to be artificially) scarce things like gold. The world has moved beyond tying the value of our currencies to material goods. Digital "co…

It doesnt have to be gold. But sound money is a necessity for a thriving economy. Gold standard prevented bad monetary policy that leads to runnaway inflation. Its not a perfect system but it stops power and greed from destroying the economy.

Addition: Every historical case of a government switching to fiat currency has resulted in runnaway inflation. The reason that gold and silver are the only constitutional money is it forces the government to do the right thing. No gold standard permits those in power to manipulate the currency for whatever reason they wish. The rules should force the wrong people to do the right thing. Relying on people in power to do the "right" thing will always fail.

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