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San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

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Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#141

Post by huac »

enraged_camel wrote: post #129
dehrmann wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe had hard lockdowns. Not China-hard, but pretty hard. Cases surged again. You mentioned Asia. I saw this headline today: "South Korea's Health Minister Describes Seoul As A 'COVID-19 War Zone'" By US standards, their case count is still incredibly low. The point is they haven't actually been able to contain it, either; they're just acting sooner and more aggressively for the second wave. Apparently New Zealand…

>> Europe had hard lockdowns. Not China-hard, but pretty hard. Cases surged again. Well yeah, after the first wave people threw all caution to the wind and decided to go back to their old habits. So of course cases are surging again. This isn’t rocket science. Not sure why everyone is pretending there’s some sort of huge mystery. We know how the virus spreads.

summer travel to countries like Croatia helped spread the disease among travelers who brought it back to their home countries, as well.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#142

Post by mike_d »

matz1 wrote: post #111
sidibe wrote: post #61

I understand the sentiment, but I think it's pretty clear in retrospect hard lockdowns were the correct way to address this. This half-assed "wear a mask and social distance if you want" stance just made the economy sputter for a whole a year. I've seen this in France twice, where they've oscillated between doing nothing and doing a lot, a couple brief lockdowns can reverse things quickly even after things have gotte…

What do you mean by "correct" ? It is correct if you assume the hard lockdown doesn't have any downside. The lockdown is not necessary in the first place. In most places, hospital are not overloaded. Even in the event of overload, the correct measure should be to increase capacity, do not admit people with mild symptoms, etc. Case number are misleading, vast majority of the case are not actually sick or only have mil…

> In most places, hospital are not overloaded

If you speak to any doctor or nurse they will disagree with you. While we might not be at a breaking point for number of beds, the staff that have to put themselves in harms way do have the option to just quit. When that starts happening in mass we are all screwed.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#143

Post by gnopgnip »

chipotle_coyote wrote: post #109
mehrdadn wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am aware of no data that some of the business activities [...] are the major drivers of transmission This suggests he is aware of data indicating that some of the business activities being restricted drive transmission, just not all of them. (I'm guessing maybe, say, indoor dining?) So should those known to do this be restricted or not? Did restricting them previously help or not? Should we ignore them?

It seems to be fairly well established at this point that poor ventilation is an issue; spending time around others who may be carrying the virus is an issue; wearing a mask, whether inside or outside, significantly reduces the chance of spreading the virus if you're a carrier. So your guess seems pretty on point. Indoor dining/drinking means being around others without masks in areas where air is circulated rather t…

A significant number of people are going to restaurants outdoors with other people from outside their household. This is more common after 10pm. So in a vacuum these activities could be done safely, but in practice they contribute to the spread of covid

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#144

Post by mattigames »

bpodgursky wrote: post #139
mattigames wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree: overdoses in 2018 killed 259, in 2019 it killed 441, so I don't think it was really surprising to get around 550 for this year.

Do you... expect drug overdose deaths to increase exponentially, as standard practice?

No, but if they increased 80% in one year is not that strange if the next one they increase around 40%

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#145

Post by JumpCrisscross »

remote_phone wrote: post #114
mlyle wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Like is missing a year of 4th grade going to be a problem for anyone? Yah. There's a whole big subset of the population that barely manages to stick with school at baseline. Educational interruption in other circumstances has been shown to have bad outcomes. We're trying to do better this time, but the school system as a whole is overtaxed. I'm a middle school teacher. Even with best practices for remote education,…

Of course you will see negative impacts this year. Online education sucks. But assuming kids are back in school September 2022, will there be lasting effects? No. If there are gaps, they will be addressed because all kids will have suffered the same thing, it’s not like the one kid who got mono and missed 3 months of school by herself.

> assuming kids are back in school September 2022, will there be lasting effects? No.

I’ve only looked at the data for literacy and its impacts on life outcomes. (I do charity in that space.) Something like being 6 months behind in third grade can materially predict high school graduation rates, SAT scores and incomes. Even if one controls for gender, race and income.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#146

Post by matz1 »

mike_d wrote: post #142
matz1 wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you mean by "correct" ? It is correct if you assume the hard lockdown doesn't have any downside. The lockdown is not necessary in the first place. In most places, hospital are not overloaded. Even in the event of overload, the correct measure should be to increase capacity, do not admit people with mild symptoms, etc. Case number are misleading, vast majority of the case are not actually sick or only have mil…

> In most places, hospital are not overloaded If you speak to any doctor or nurse they will disagree with you. While we might not be at a breaking point for number of beds, the staff that have to put themselves in harms way do have the option to just quit. When that starts happening in mass we are all screwed.

Yes I do have couple of nurse friend and doctor, they all thought lockdown measure is way overkill and all this has been greatly overblown. Not to mention the excessive ppe measure/protocol they now have to adopt, its only made their job harder.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#147

Post by dehrmann »

jusonchan81 wrote: post #113
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Asia hard lockdowns aren’t seen as a silver bullet, and some countries like Korea never really had one. Centralized quarantine and mandatory symptom checks are believed to be comparably important.

South Korea did have a near perfect compliance in wearing masks outside of your home. I think that’s what helped them keep it fairly under control for such a populous country. Just to be clear - it was near perfect and not 100%

Saw this headline on NPR today: "South Korea's Health Minister Describes Seoul As A 'COVID-19 War Zone'"

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#148

Post by remote_phone »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #145
remote_phone wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course you will see negative impacts this year. Online education sucks. But assuming kids are back in school September 2022, will there be lasting effects? No. If there are gaps, they will be addressed because all kids will have suffered the same thing, it’s not like the one kid who got mono and missed 3 months of school by herself.

> assuming kids are back in school September 2022, will there be lasting effects? No. I’ve only looked at the data for literacy and its impacts on life outcomes. (I do charity in that space.) Something like being 6 months behind in third grade can materially predict high school graduation rates, SAT scores and incomes. Even if one controls for gender, race and income.

That’s if no one else is behind. This is different. Everyone is behind. This is more akin to being in school during a war. Some countries missed entire years of school and we’re fine.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#149

Post by rriepe »

avalys wrote: post #17

Wow. Lest anyone think that Dr. Morrow is some kind of anti-lockdown activist - back in the spring, San Mateo county had one of the most restrictive and prescriptive lockdowns of anywhere in the US (residents were ordered to limit outdoor recreation to within 5 miles of their home). It takes a lot of guts to just look objectively at the data and do what you think is right, regardless of what pressure you’re getting f…

> some kind of anti-lockdown activist

Gasp!

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#150

Post by remote_phone »

fludlight wrote: post #126
remote_phone wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Places like UK did a hard lockdown for 6 weeks and kept schools open. It completely worked. Yes, kids can transmit the virus, but it appears that as long as the ADULTS limit their interaction with other adults, kids have only a limited way of encountering infections.

Kid1->Kid2->Parents-of-kid2 transmission sounds like it would lead to a lot of orphans. Did it? What's the lag on the statistics on that subject? Outcomes are also not binary (life or death). There is also the possibility of a gamut of lifelong health problems from, e.g. scarred lungs, for both kids and parents.

Most parents of school kids are younger than the 60. That age group has less than 0.2% death rate.
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