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Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist

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Re: Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist

#141

Post by xmprt »

paulryanrogers wrote: post #131
xmprt wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're talking about hundreds and thousands of years though. A few hundred years ago, the mere thought of airplanes and cell phones would be considered witchcraft. I don't think it's a long shot to be reasonably optimistic about where humanity can get in terms of technology.

Imagination is unlimited. I don't mean to harsh anyone's dreams. But technological development isn't a predictable march forward. There is less low hanging fruit as things progress. I'd guess we're very close to the peak of attainable technology. Once sustainability comes into the picture then, IMO, we're beyond the limit.

It's not supposed to be all easy. A big part of advancement is creating technology that enables us to reach higher with less effort. Sustainability is a big issue now that a lot of people are working towards. Once we unlock more efficient techniques of capturing solar energy, energy becomes almost a non issue until we reach another barrier that's orders of magnitude away. Space travel will reduce resource limitations too.

Re: Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist

#142

Post by BobbyJo »

paulryanrogers wrote: post #131
xmprt wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're talking about hundreds and thousands of years though. A few hundred years ago, the mere thought of airplanes and cell phones would be considered witchcraft. I don't think it's a long shot to be reasonably optimistic about where humanity can get in terms of technology.

Imagination is unlimited. I don't mean to harsh anyone's dreams. But technological development isn't a predictable march forward. There is less low hanging fruit as things progress. I'd guess we're very close to the peak of attainable technology. Once sustainability comes into the picture then, IMO, we're beyond the limit.

>I'd guess we're very close to the peak of attainable technology.

Not many people, and pretty much no research scientist, would agree with that statement. I can personally think of several technologies I'm 100% certain will exist in < 40 years that will drastically alter everything about day to day life.

Re: Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist

#143

Post by chii »

xchaotic wrote: post #111
marvin wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

General artificial intelligence, once we figure it out, will cause an increase in the annual economic growth more extreme than even the industrial revolution caused. Either that or a disaster, but hopefully the former. Anyone who thinks we will run out of things to create just lacks imagination. There's so much stuff we'd really, really like to have but haven't been able to economically create yet. Medicine, body mod…

But as things get automated and cheaper that’s actually negative gdp growth. So it won’t pay your retirement

If things get cheaper, you can live off less income from your investments .

Re: Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist

#144

Post by chii »

sokoloff wrote: post #38
gingerlime wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My takeaway from the article was actually matching exactly what you're saying. You understand that investment in the long term should be profitable, but can be negative in the shorter term. And that's exactly why when you're younger you don't need to worry too much about bumps along the way, because you have a longer horizon. When you're older, your horizon is shorter and you have to adjust accordingly.

Unless you have more invested than you’ll plausibly need to withdraw, in which case your investment horizon can be longer than your lifetime. (My investing horizon is ideally more based on my future grandchildren’s lifespan than my own.)

If your investment horizon is longer then your life time, then it means it's dynastic wealth, and is passed to your children/kin.

Re: Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist

#145

Post by diab0lic »

ouid wrote: post #139
count wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

European global expansion also had hard physics limits. The age of sail grew the global GDP tremendously. I wouldn't discount multi-year asteroid mining trips/etc. from having the same impact in 50-100 years.

Really? What do you imagine to be receiving from an asteroid that cannot more easily be obtained from the earth?

Large volumes of minerals that are already in space (don't need to expend energy putting them in orbit) to build settlements, ships, etc...

Re: Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist

#146

Post by randmeerkat »

mjfl wrote: post #46
yojo wrote: post #39

I’m skeptical of the closing claim that exponential growth keeps happening forever. Yes, you can grow GDP 2% for 200 years, that results in an economy 50x the start size. Expand it to 1000 years and you’re talking about an economy 400 million times as large. After 2100 years you’re up to an economy a QUINTILLION times as large. At some point the exponential curve has to go S-shaped. Maybe we’re still in the happy exp…

Imagine a world with 1 trillion people on it. A new Einstein is born every 10 years. Better access to information, the ability to augment their minds with computers makes them 10x smarter than Einstein was. Is it so hard to imagine that the economy would be 50x bigger in that situation?

It’s not just Einstein being born, it’s Einstein being born in a place where the person has access to education, funds, and an environment conducive to a civilization changing breakthrough.

For example Peter Higgs says that what he accomplished would no longer be possible today with how modern academia works: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2013/dec/06/peter-higgs-...

Overall I’m pessimistic that another Einstein is possible in the timeframe that we need them and that they would have the motivations to solve the problems that we need solved.

My cynical view is that realistically another Einstein would probably just get sucked into figuring out how to use big data analytics to get users to click on ads all so they could buy a $2M three bedroom house in the Bay Area.

Re: Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist

#147

Post by lalos »

dstick wrote: post #107
ericmay wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, eventually what will happen is countries will disappear, wars will destroy things, and other events will wipe out economies, savings, or entire companies. The growth model will probably always be exponential, but from time to time things will reset to 0.

While I agree with your sentiment, how has this worked in the past? Did things reset to 0 during WW1 and 2?

Wasn't food rationed and life quality lower in general during the wars? I'm basing this on seeing propaganda of making daily sacrifices for the war but not exactly sure. My general image was that collectively it was an extreme low point in many countries.

Re: Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist

#148

Post by patjenk »

yojo wrote: post #39

I’m skeptical of the closing claim that exponential growth keeps happening forever. Yes, you can grow GDP 2% for 200 years, that results in an economy 50x the start size. Expand it to 1000 years and you’re talking about an economy 400 million times as large. After 2100 years you’re up to an economy a QUINTILLION times as large. At some point the exponential curve has to go S-shaped. Maybe we’re still in the happy exp…

Sorry to be dense, but where in the article does it claim that GDP will grow forever?

An as an aside, GDP is only a proxy for how prolific an economy/country is. The country's output can continue to grow without generating more dollars.

Re: Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist

#149

Post by wmeredith »

sanderjd wrote: post #62

I'm totally philosophically aligned with this article and enjoyed reading it, but I'm just interested to hear whether anyone else has this problem: More and more stuff I read seems to be name-droppy like this. For instance, I've been reading "The Psychology of Money" recently, and I'm enjoying it, but its style is a lot like this article; an endless series of anecdotes about famous and semi-famous people, with insigh…

Collecting these stories and weaving a narrative around them is basically productizing survivorship bias and many people have made a career of it. Just browse the bookshelf at your local Fedex Kinkos. E.g. Malcolm Gladwell, as was mentioned elsewhere in this thread.

Re: Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist

#150

Post by kiba »

mjfl wrote: post #46
yojo wrote: post #39

I’m skeptical of the closing claim that exponential growth keeps happening forever. Yes, you can grow GDP 2% for 200 years, that results in an economy 50x the start size. Expand it to 1000 years and you’re talking about an economy 400 million times as large. After 2100 years you’re up to an economy a QUINTILLION times as large. At some point the exponential curve has to go S-shaped. Maybe we’re still in the happy exp…

Imagine a world with 1 trillion people on it. A new Einstein is born every 10 years. Better access to information, the ability to augment their minds with computers makes them 10x smarter than Einstein was. Is it so hard to imagine that the economy would be 50x bigger in that situation?

Arguably there's less and less to discover, and revolutionary discoveries become less likely.
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