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Biden Wins Presidency, Ending Four Tumultuous Years Under Trump

nytimes.com

141–150 of 206 posts

Re: Biden Wins Presidency, Ending Four Tumultuous Years Under Trump

#141

Feels more like closure rather than a true victory. It's going to be fun living in an utterly balkanized country the next four years.

And AOC openly calls for hunting down Trump supporters: "Is anyone archiving these Trump sycophants for when they try to downplay or deny their complicity in the future? ". So much for political freedom.

Re: Biden Wins Presidency, Ending Four Tumultuous Years Under Trump

#142

> Ending Four Tumultuous Years Under Trump Not a true statement I'm afraid. Look at the number of votes he got. Trumpism isn't going away any time soon.

I think this very much remains to be seen. There’s a history of movements like this, essentially based around one figure and lacking a coherent ideology, crumbling once Dear Leader is perceived as a loser. It’s not inevitable that that will happen in this case, but it’s certainly plausible. I would assume that most of his bluster about actually winning is aimed more at casting doubt on this in the minds of his follow…

Not to make people nervous or anything but the US has had a president with non-consecutive terms before. It's not implausible to imagine Trump continuing to direct the Republican party while out of office.

Re: Biden Wins Presidency, Ending Four Tumultuous Years Under Trump

#143

Feels more like closure rather than a true victory. It's going to be fun living in an utterly balkanized country the next four years.

And AOC openly calls for hunting down Trump supporters: "Is anyone archiving these Trump sycophants for when they try to downplay or deny their complicity in the future? ". So much for political freedom.

That sent a chill down my spine. A giant red glowing: "WARNING".

Re: Biden Wins Presidency, Ending Four Tumultuous Years Under Trump

#144
post #42

If people agree it was tumultuous why was the race still so close? I really think adding little adjectives like that undermines the respectedness of the NYT

A news agency doesn't have to cater to everyone.

It doesn't, and thats total fine. But if it doesn't, it shouldn't say it does and is unbiased.

Re: Biden Wins Presidency, Ending Four Tumultuous Years Under Trump

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven’t dived into the exit poll data yet (by county, race, income, and age), but it really depends on which states those voters reside in. If they’re in states almost blue (Texas and Georgia, for example), it’s moot. Florida is likely a lost cause (between conservative minorities and the elderly), but you don’t need Florida to win national elections (clearly). If the electoral college is done away with, it’s also…

I don't understand your meaning. Texas and Georgia are almost blue at least partly because minority voters overwhelmingly vote blue, and the proportion of minorities has been increasing over time. Changing that vote share to 60-40 instead of 80-20 would do quite a lot to solidify republicans in those states. And with Trump showing that it's possible to increase the Republican vote share among minorities... I'd expect…

Across the board, the GOP would need to convert minorities to consistent GOP voters faster than the electorate conversion (where the electorate tilts progressive) occurs naturally due to older voters dying and newer voters turning 18 or naturalizing, and this conversion needs to happen even faster in states that are turning blue (to overcome sociopolitical demographic momentum). I will add that just because Trump was able to pull more minority votes doesn't mean the GOP will be able to do the same; different messaging. Someone supporting Trump is unlikely to vote for Mitt Romney (who is, imho, a reasonable conservative), for example. Also, historically, the GOP typically doesn't put forth public policy that is friendly to most minorities and immigrants.

Sorry my thesis wasn't clear, although I appreciate the opportunity to refine the message. Better to get the kinks out here before speaking to an audience IRL.

Re: Biden Wins Presidency, Ending Four Tumultuous Years Under Trump

#146
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This election should be a wake up call to entire country and Democrats in particular. There was no blue wave, if anything Biden has barely squeaked past the post. If it were not for the pandemic I'm convinced the Trump turnout for this election would have produced results rivaling Reagan in 1984. Even with a pandemic he was able to drive more voters to the polls on election day than any point in American history.

> There was no blue wave, if anything Biden has barely squeaked past the post. Trump under-performed his 2016 margins in 38 states, including many deep red ones.

Yes, Trump underperformed relative to 2016 - and yet the Republicans made gains in the House, and maintained control of the Senate. The fact that the presidential race is close enough to still be under contention days after election night should be evidence enough that there wasn't a significant blue wave!

Re: Biden Wins Presidency, Ending Four Tumultuous Years Under Trump

#147
post #58

With a lead of only 34k votes in Pennsylvania, and 135k ballots still left to count, considering the tensions in the country, IMHO the Associated Press should have waited a bit more before declaring Biden as a winner…

Everyone with the numbers called it back on Wednesday when Trump technically still had a lead. It's a double whammy: all of the votes left are not only in overwhelmingly blue areas, they're also mail in ballots. They're blue at >80% rate.

It was clear to me looking at the PA numbers that Biden had this in the bag by Wednesday morning. All you had to do was look at the fact that even though Trump won the early red states, he was not performing as well as he did in 2016. There was a lot made out of FL going for Trump early on, and he was in fact up there compared to 2016. But that was pretty much one of the only places he was. He ran down 3 in TX, down 5 in GA, down 2 in NC, down 2 in IA, down 4 in WY, down almost 7 in MT and KS, down 7 in ME, down 7 in NH.

All told by the end of Tuesday he was down in 30+ states (as it is settling now, he's down in 38 states compared to his 2016 margin). He won PA, MI, and WI by less than a point each in 2016. So if Trump was seeing shifts of 3 away from him in Texas, it didn't take a psychic to know he'd be losing those states he won at such a small margin.

If you looked at the numbers in PA on Wednesday morning, what you saw were tons out outstanding ballots in Lehigh, Bucks, Monroe, Philadelphia, and Allegheny counties, all counties that went for Clinton in 2016. You combine that with the fact that Democrats returned mail-in ballots at a rate of 65% compared to 23% for Republicans, and this thing seemed inevitable since about Wednesday morning.

Re: Biden Wins Presidency, Ending Four Tumultuous Years Under Trump

#148
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This election should be a wake up call to entire country and Democrats in particular. There was no blue wave, if anything Biden has barely squeaked past the post. If it were not for the pandemic I'm convinced the Trump turnout for this election would have produced results rivaling Reagan in 1984. Even with a pandemic he was able to drive more voters to the polls on election day than any point in American history.

> There was no blue wave, if anything Biden has barely squeaked past the post. Trump under-performed his 2016 margins in 38 states, including many deep red ones.

In an election where polling was showing him losing the 60+ vote in Florida. Hispanic people may not turnout for Republicans the way they did this year, but retirees certainly won’t be doing the same for Democrats.

Trump is historically unpopular among people in the suburbs. Biden won my county by 15-20. It hadn’t voted Democrat before 2016. And Larry Hogan won my county by 38 points in 2018.

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