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Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds

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Re: Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A spike in cases without a corresponding increase in deaths or hospitalizations should be a good thing, but we treat it the same as having an equivalent number of centenarians get sick. Lots of people that don't get hospitalized are reporting significant lingering symptoms. An effective vaccine appears to be ~months away. Do either of those things matter at all?

The short answer is that the supposed “long-term impacts” aren’t really real. I recommend reading the literature on SARS-CoV-1, the “original SARS”, which spreads less easily but is far more severe. A normal SARS-1 case is like a severe SARS-2 (“covid”) case. With SARS-1, there can be lingering fatigue and minor cognitive deficits for a few months post infection, but radiological abnormalities of the lungs, etc clear…

There's a difference (a significant one) between vaccines carrying some risk and a vaccine being as harmful as infection.

We don't have that information about a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine yet, but you are just hand-waving here, it's likely enough that one of the many vaccine candidates will be less harmful than a course of infection (In general, vaccines are safe enough that we use lots of them…).

You also aren't working long term damage "into the math", you are doing just what I was getting at, dismissing it.

Re: Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds

#142
post #113

As a 27-year-old CU PhD student and staff member, I just want to say that this is a welcome development. The university recklessly opened this fall without adequate security measures in place over the loud protests of faculty and staff, and (surprised_pikachu.jpg) now Boulder is facing a massive outbreak clearly attributable to campus' opening [1]. My friends, colleagues, and community are being directly endangered b…

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Benjamin Franklin People seem to forget that the expected total death count from day 1 was, and still is , expected to be the same no matter what actions taken....And the entire point of lockdowns was to not overwhelm the hospitals all at once. It's so frustrating watching Democrat leaders (Jill H…

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Re: Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds

#143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The short answer is that the supposed “long-term impacts” aren’t really real. I recommend reading the literature on SARS-CoV-1, the “original SARS”, which spreads less easily but is far more severe. A normal SARS-1 case is like a severe SARS-2 (“covid”) case. With SARS-1, there can be lingering fatigue and minor cognitive deficits for a few months post infection, but radiological abnormalities of the lungs, etc clear…

There's a difference (a significant one) between vaccines carrying some risk and a vaccine being as harmful as infection. We don't have that information about a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine yet, but you are just hand-waving here, it's likely enough that one of the many vaccine candidates will be less harmful than a course of infection (In general, vaccines are safe enough that we use lots of them…). You also aren't working lon…

You haven't really given me any math to dismiss. But simply put, I believe the risks of locking down until a vaccine outpace the risks of allowing SARS-CoV-2 to spread normally in the general population (not in high-risk categories).

Your position also implicitly relies on the notion that SARS-2 isn't spreading right now, but it is, so by the time we get a vaccine we will have a lot of exposure. Data from NY and Sweden implies somewhere around 20% seroprevalence is when we hit herd immunity.

Since you haven't given me much to work on, and I don't feel like digging into the vaccine side, let me give you some research on long-term damage:

["Follow-up Chest CT findings from discharged patients with severe COVID-19: an 83-day observational study"](https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-27359/v1) - First Submitted May 4, Published online May 12

> Radiological abnormalities in patients of severe COVID-19 could be completely absorbed with no residual lung injury in more than two months’ follow-up.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1046/j.1440-1843... (SARS-1 pathology)

> Preliminary evidence suggests that these lung function abnormalities will improve over time

and here's just one effect of lockdown: loneliness.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/110/15/5797.full.pdf

> mortality was higher among more socially isolated and more lonely participants. However, after adjusting statistically for demographic factors and baseline health, social isolation remained significantly associated with mortality (hazard ratio 1.26, 95% confidence interval, 1.08–1.48 for the top quintile of isolation), but loneliness did not (haz-ard ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval, 0.78–1.09). The association of social isolation with mortality was unchanged when loneliness was included in the model.

Re: Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds

#144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Constitution is the source code of our country. It literally describes what rights we have (edit: it is not an exhaustive list to be clear), thus why we have a document called “the Bill of Rights” which is a set of constitutional amendments that enumerate a set of rights that the government does not have the power to infringe. So, respectfully, I actually see your confusion as a non-American; most countries don’t…

The constitution is written to enjoin the government from infringing on certain rights . To say that it describes the rights we have is a fundamental misunderstanding. It even says as much, in the 9th amendment: The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people. I mean, you could at least try to argue more clearly, and not trip over somet…

The 9th amendment is saying "just because we said we have rights X and Y explicitly, doesn't mean that we don't have Z just because we didn't say it". That's what it's saying.

All I'm saying is the bill of rights describes rights that the government cannot infringe upon (with the exceptions established via judicial precedent, for example guns can be taken away from violent felons, etc)

I never said that the Constitution was an exhaustive list of our rights so your snarky dismissal doesn't strike me as fair.

Re: Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would love to see the decisions overturned. Maybe with a majority originalist/textualist SCOTUS there’s a chance. I’m not holding my breath though.

I hope the President chooses Allison Jones Rushing or Barbara Lagoa, because Amy Coney Barrett has cited Jacobson favourably.

I saw that too. I'm not sure how to feel about it. I know that lower courts are bound to uphold precedent via vertical stare decisis, but it sounds like even with the precedent as a given, she might have stretched it in a way she wasn't forced to. Do you have any thoughts here?

ACB seems like the perfect candidate except for exactly what you mentioned. So I am very curious how much of that was her hands being tied versus her being unusually authoritarian. Because if it's the latter, I absolutely share your concern.

Re: Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds

#146
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me, a "right" should be considered on the basis of what it actually provides to people. This might be an unpopular opinion that I hold as a non-american, but I don't really see "because it was decided so a long time ago" as particularly good reason to ordain something as a sacred right. I'd be curious to know your take. Is it because you uphold that "decisions should be made based precedent" as being critical for…

The Constitution is the source code of our country. It literally describes what rights we have (edit: it is not an exhaustive list to be clear), thus why we have a document called “the Bill of Rights” which is a set of constitutional amendments that enumerate a set of rights that the government does not have the power to infringe. So, respectfully, I actually see your confusion as a non-American; most countries don’t…

Thanks for engaging with this, I really appreciate the insight, and definitely see the merits of the position.

>Thus the constitution just makes it explicit to the government that we have these rights and always did; as opposed to the government graciously extending these rights.

This in particular makes a lot of sense to me, and kinda what i was getting at with the comment about stability, though perhaps introducing the word precendent was a bad idea given its existing judicial meaning. There's a certain protection that this provides against governments implementing whatever happens to be "in vogue" at the time (abuses of ethnicities that are currently associated with "the enemy" for example).

For the record, I wasn't trying to imply anything negative with the "Quran" question - I respect the decision to use religion as the fundemental basis for law (well to the extent that it doesn't violate what I'd consider more fundemental human rights, such as the right not to be raped, but that's a different discusion).

Hypothetically, if you were against banning of public gatherings to protect against COVID only the grounds that it violates 1a, if you were to repatriate in a country that didn't enshrine 1a, would your position on this policy change?

For the record, considering it myself, if I think i were to reptriate to america, I think my position WOULD change, and I'd be against public gatherings, on the grounds that the long term damage caused by violating 1a is far worse than the short term harm by allowing further spread of COVID (once again in a hypothetical world where the only thing that I have against the ban is 1a), but I'm not sure.

Re: Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The constitution is written to enjoin the government from infringing on certain rights . To say that it describes the rights we have is a fundamental misunderstanding. It even says as much, in the 9th amendment: The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people. I mean, you could at least try to argue more clearly, and not trip over somet…

The 9th amendment is saying "just because we said we have rights X and Y explicitly, doesn't mean that we don't have Z just because we didn't say it". That's what it's saying. All I'm saying is the bill of rights describes rights that the government cannot infringe upon (with the exceptions established via judicial precedent, for example guns can be taken away from violent felons, etc) I never said that the Constitut…

Your exact words are It literally describes what rights we have.

The US constitution doesn't do that, it enjoins the government from infringing certain rights. If you are going to endlessly bloviate about it, do it with some clarity.

Re: Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a difference (a significant one) between vaccines carrying some risk and a vaccine being as harmful as infection. We don't have that information about a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine yet, but you are just hand-waving here, it's likely enough that one of the many vaccine candidates will be less harmful than a course of infection (In general, vaccines are safe enough that we use lots of them…). You also aren't working lon…

You haven't really given me any math to dismiss. But simply put, I believe the risks of locking down until a vaccine outpace the risks of allowing SARS-CoV-2 to spread normally in the general population (not in high-risk categories). Your position also implicitly relies on the notion that SARS-2 isn't spreading right now, but it is, so by the time we get a vaccine we will have a lot of exposure. Data from NY and Swed…

You haven't done enough work to tie the second 2 links to the 2020 pandemic. You are just asserting that they apply. You are the one dismissing government epidemiologists, you owe the math, not me.

For the first link, only 40% of the patients had (in the sense of the Chest CT study) recovered after 2 months. But that's a single measure, it would be good to have additional assessments of the health of those folks, rather than just the single factor.

Re: Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds

#149

Replace "18-22 year olds" with "blacks" or "Muslims" Is it still ethical? Legal? Effective?

Fair point, funny how capriciously we treat the rights and welfare of the young these days. Try cutting the social security COLA by 1%? Get a riot. Destroy the economic livelihoods of a generation of new entrants to the economy? No problemo, my stocks and real estate portfolio is doing great!

I want pictures if that fraction of the population population riots.

Re: Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds

#150
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Constitution is the source code of our country. It literally describes what rights we have (edit: it is not an exhaustive list to be clear), thus why we have a document called “the Bill of Rights” which is a set of constitutional amendments that enumerate a set of rights that the government does not have the power to infringe. So, respectfully, I actually see your confusion as a non-American; most countries don’t…

Thanks for engaging with this, I really appreciate the insight, and definitely see the merits of the position. >Thus the constitution just makes it explicit to the government that we have these rights and always did; as opposed to the government graciously extending these rights. This in particular makes a lot of sense to me, and kinda what i was getting at with the comment about stability, though perhaps introducing…

> Hypothetically, if you were against banning of public gatherings to protect against COVID only the grounds that it violates 1a, if you were to repatriate in a country that didn't enshrine 1a, would your position on this policy change?

Great question. My reasoning would change, but my position would not. The issue is that the research I've done has convinced me that SARS-CoV-2 is literally the worst possible virus to lockdown over (and furthermore there's really not a virus out there where lockdown makes sense anyway).

BTW, the way we've done it in the USA is the worst of both worlds because we ate all the costs of containment, yet are actually practicing mitigation. It's like the opposite of the pareto principle.

Before I get into the health stuff, since we do have the 1A here, I will always argue the 1A over the health stuff, because arguing the merits of the policy on public health grounds means implicitly ceding the first amendment argument. Anyway, let's begin:

The reason I would still be against it if I were in, say, Europe, is because from a public health standpoint, I believe these measures worsen mortality over the long-term (and indeed the medium-term, and possibly even the short-term).

In short, this is because universal lockdown increases the proportion of at-risk people that must get sick before we hit herd immunity. Additionally, lockdown is going to reduce a population's sunlight exposure (Vitamin D is INCREDIBLY important for respiratory pathology, but nitric oxide is important too), it's going to reduce the amount people exercise/sleep, it's going to increase fear/anxiety, and it's going to decrease social interaction. Each of those individually are bad for the immune system, but taken together it's disastrous.

Severe COVID-19 seems to be an immunoregulatory disorder. You don't so much die from the virus as you do your immune response to the virus.

A virus like SARS-2, which is adapted to spread well (for example, it suppresses interferon in the early stages of infection which creates a ~2 day window of pre-symptomatic spread where viral load is high enough to transmit and yet there are no visible symptoms), but it is a very poor killer (even the CDC estimates a .65% IFR, and the CDC has a vested interest in using the worst numbers possible).

Furthermore the population targetted by SARS-2 is almost exclusively the very old or the very sick, which means the average years of life lost (YLL) per death is much lower than for Influenza, which actually does kill children in real amounts.

So in conclusion:

- the measures to slow spread don't seem to work to slow spread (this applies to universal masking btw)

- but insofar as those measures do slow spread, that's a bad thing, because it increases the number of high-risk individuals that will get sick over the long-run, and

- of those who do get sick, if they've spent the last 3 months locked down they are more likely to die

BTW, since pre-existing exposure to non-SARS human coronaviruses produces T-cell cross-reactivity [1], we could have produced a pseudo-vaccine already by just dosing people with live non-SARS human coronaviruses.

[1] ["SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell immunity in cases of COVID-19 and SARS, and uninfected controls"](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z) - Published: 15 July 2020

- Here, we first studied T cell responses to structural (nucleocapsid protein, NP) and non-structural (NSP-7 and NSP13 of ORF1) regions of SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 convalescents (n=36). In all of them we demonstrated the presence of CD4 and CD8 T cells recognizing multiple regions of the NP protein. We then showed that SARS-recovered patients (n=23) still possess long-lasting memory T cells reactive to SARS-NP 17 years after the 2003 outbreak, which displayed robust cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 NP.

- Surprisingly, we also frequently detected SARS-CoV-2 specific T cells in individuals with no history of SARS, COVID-19 or contact with SARS/COVID-19 patients (n=37)

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