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John Carmack’s presentation at Facebook Connect [video]

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Re: John Carmack’s presentation at Facebook Connect [video]

#141

Post by ehaliewicz2 »

timleewards wrote: post #124
dougmwne wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it can only play Alyx through the link on PC, unless Valve decides to port it at some point in the future, which seems unlikely since they have their own investments in VR as a platform.

Valve is not able to port it - and likely never will be - simply because as a low end headset, the quest cant handle it. From what i read, oculus link leads to latency and compression quality losses so it cant really he played via cable either.

There are two ways to play pc vr games on quest. First is via wifi, with apps like Virtual Desktop, this gives you very good quality, but depending on your setup can range between perfectly acceptable latency, or terrible jittering and lag.

Oculus link gives you very good latency, but with the default settings the quality leaves a lot to be desired. You can tweak the render settings though, which fixes the issue, and it ends up looking about as good as Virtual Desktop. Only real unsolvable problem is the cable, but it's not a huge issue for me.

Alyx is quite playable through both of these setups (assuming good latency for a virtual desktop setup).

Re: John Carmack’s presentation at Facebook Connect [video]

#142

Post by dougmwne »

timleewards wrote: post #124
dougmwne wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it can only play Alyx through the link on PC, unless Valve decides to port it at some point in the future, which seems unlikely since they have their own investments in VR as a platform.

Valve is not able to port it - and likely never will be - simply because as a low end headset, the quest cant handle it. From what i read, oculus link leads to latency and compression quality losses so it cant really he played via cable either.

Take a look at 29:40 in Carmack's video. The Quest 1 link was running at just 150mbps due to encoder limitations and it apparently ran on a USB 2 cable and you didn't even need their fancy long USB 3 cable. Sounds like there's a lot more available encoder bandwidth on the Quest 2, so I'm hoping link will end up almost as good as traditionally wired VR.

Re: John Carmack’s presentation at Facebook Connect [video]

#143

Post by agar »

mikepurvis wrote: post #82
koiz wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Right now this is a very expensive, multi-billion dollar toy with toy demonstrator apps and proof of concept games. We are far past tech demos and concept games.

But it's clearly not a mass market thing either— mass market is mobile games raking in millions, Switches selling out during quarantine, the upcoming PS5 launch, and Epic having splashy platform wars with Apple and Valve. Those are billion dollar gaming events which all have nothing to do with VR. There's no non-nerd out there who thinks "maybe I'll try VR", and goes into a store to buy... whatever it is, goes home t…

Others have said this, but I'll reiterate: your description of mass market is precisely what's happening with Quest. Your view of VR seems rooted in pre-Quest (i.e., exclusively PC-tethered) VR and not the stand-alone world.

In fact, so many people literally went to Best Buy or Walmart to purchase a Quest that it has been sold out since the beginning of the year, online and off, with eBay pricing at 50%+ premiums.

You literally open the box, run an app on your phone (for configuration), put the HMD on your face and you're in VR. People not only tell their friends, but buy multiple versions to give to friends and family.

With Quest 2 at a $299 price point, the non-nerds saying "maybe I'll try VR" will happen even more often. The OculusQuest subreddit has a constant stream of questions about this very behavior. It is currently the ~2,000th most popular subreddit, with an impressive growth curve[1]. Some are literally buying the Quest 2 instead of the PS5 (though clearly a small number).

So far, 35 games have made over $1m on Quest alone, with one clearing that figure in 4 days and another in 8 days. Top games have made over $10m, not even including revenue from Steam, PSVR, or the Oculus PC VR platform. These aren't Epic / Apple level mega-wins, but many mobile developers would be happy with $5-10m revenue figures.

Upcoming VR games are coming from top tier publishers like Respawn (Medal of Honor), Ubisoft (Assassin's Creed, Splinter Cell), and Rockstar (unnamed AAA open world game)[2], Crytek (The Climb 2), and EA (Star Wars: Squadrons).

Additional games include Sniper Elite, Warhammer 40,000, Star Wars: Tales from the Galaxy's Edge, Jurassic World Aftermath, and Myst. And this is just the tip of the iceberg from brands/publishers you may know.

Point being, stand-alone VR has really addressed many of your (and the market's) concerns.

And, to be fair, in your linked video Linus was trying to use optional, expensive peripherals for full-body tracking while streaming - not exactly a mass-market use case.

[1] https://subredditstats.com/r/oculusquest

[2] https://uploadvr.com/rockstars-new-vr-game-guesses/

Re: John Carmack’s presentation at Facebook Connect [video]

#144

Post by fxtentacle »

agar wrote: post #143
mikepurvis wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it's clearly not a mass market thing either— mass market is mobile games raking in millions, Switches selling out during quarantine, the upcoming PS5 launch, and Epic having splashy platform wars with Apple and Valve. Those are billion dollar gaming events which all have nothing to do with VR. There's no non-nerd out there who thinks "maybe I'll try VR", and goes into a store to buy... whatever it is, goes home t…

Others have said this, but I'll reiterate: your description of mass market is precisely what's happening with Quest. Your view of VR seems rooted in pre-Quest (i.e., exclusively PC-tethered) VR and not the stand-alone world. In fact, so many people literally went to Best Buy or Walmart to purchase a Quest that it has been sold out since the beginning of the year, online and off, with eBay pricing at 50%+ premiums. Yo…

The problem is, those numbers are nowhere near close to the price of making triple-A games. I heard Assassins Creed Origins cost 80 mio and Odyssey was 100 mio. With that in mind, "Top games have made over $10m" sounds like we won't be seeing high quality VR games anytime soon.

Re: John Carmack’s presentation at Facebook Connect [video]

#145

Post by jasonwatkinspdx »

ilaksh wrote: post #136
aantix wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI, artificial general intelligence as an independent researcher.

Actually I just realized, after thinking about the forward looking AR research talk by the VP or whoever, that AGI is actually the long-term research goal for Facebook's AR. They want a personal assistant that understands the world well enough to insert content that you need. So John is actually still working on the next phase of the Facebook AR project in my opinion.

Nope. He's collaborating with his son on it, and he's being extremely careful to keep the work highly partitioned for IP reasons. He doesn't want a repeat of the ZenniMax lawsuit. I'd read it as his sunset project for his career, where he gets to take a longshot at something really ambitious, while enjoying hacking with his son.

Re: John Carmack’s presentation at Facebook Connect [video]

#146

Post by paulcole »

koiz wrote: post #46
dougmwne wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say that is the same as a dead end. Right now this is a very expensive, multi-billion dollar toy with toy demonstrator apps and proof of concept games. It needs to be a game changer and the future of something or the research funding and developer ecosystem are going to dry up. And given the amount that Facebook must be losing on the Quest 2 and the all-in nature of this launch, if this doesn't take off now, the…

>Right now this is a very expensive, multi-billion dollar toy with toy demonstrator apps and proof of concept games. We are far past tech demos and concept games.

There was a time when everyone in America knew who Mario was.

Is there anything in VR apps/games that’s even passingly familiar to 1% of average people?

Personally, I know Myst has been ported to VR and that there’s some way to watch NBA games in VR but that’s about it.

Re: John Carmack’s presentation at Facebook Connect [video]

#147

Post by dougmwne »

agar wrote: post #143
mikepurvis wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it's clearly not a mass market thing either— mass market is mobile games raking in millions, Switches selling out during quarantine, the upcoming PS5 launch, and Epic having splashy platform wars with Apple and Valve. Those are billion dollar gaming events which all have nothing to do with VR. There's no non-nerd out there who thinks "maybe I'll try VR", and goes into a store to buy... whatever it is, goes home t…

Others have said this, but I'll reiterate: your description of mass market is precisely what's happening with Quest. Your view of VR seems rooted in pre-Quest (i.e., exclusively PC-tethered) VR and not the stand-alone world. In fact, so many people literally went to Best Buy or Walmart to purchase a Quest that it has been sold out since the beginning of the year, online and off, with eBay pricing at 50%+ premiums. Yo…

Great perspective! I think things are early stage, but that the next couple of years are going to be the most exciting period for VR with possibly several of the upcoming games you mention hitting very large sales numbers. There's no guarantee, but just like the Wii was the must-have console of its generation, the Quest 2 has the potential to be a runaway success with sales numbers simaler to the consoles. As technology watchers, sometimes we watch these incremental improvements over many years and its hard to recognize the moment something is about to pass into the mainstream.

Re: John Carmack’s presentation at Facebook Connect [video]

#148

Post by rubicon33 »

kleiba wrote: post #10
polytely wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I understand it he now works part-time at Oculus, dedicating the rest of his time to AI, he mentions it in passing in the Horizon session [0] by but he tries to keep it really separate because he doesn't want to be the subject of another billion dollar lawsuit [1] [0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7mFEGah27c [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZeniMax_v._Oculus

Still, too bad IMO - I personally enjoyed him talking about games and CG much more than about VR (which I don't care too much about) even though there is, of course, an overlap. I wonder whether I will enjoy him talking about ML even less since I hear that all the time already in my day job.

You should really try out a good VR headset. I think it will change your mind.

Re: John Carmack’s presentation at Facebook Connect [video]

#149

Post by yobert »

jonny_wonny wrote: post #111
dynamite-ready wrote: post #6

He is an incredible public speaker. The first time I heard him, almost 10 years ago, speaking to a journalist at E3, I was shocked. So much detail, but so well communicated. I can happily listen to him talk on almost any subject.

His Joe Rogan podcast is pretty incredible, if you haven’t seen it yet.

I love how he goes everywhere from making cars go faster with compressed air rockets, to getting inspiration from the ductwork in the ceiling. Such a great talk.

Re: John Carmack’s presentation at Facebook Connect [video]

#150

Post by andybak »

fxtentacle wrote: post #144
agar wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Others have said this, but I'll reiterate: your description of mass market is precisely what's happening with Quest. Your view of VR seems rooted in pre-Quest (i.e., exclusively PC-tethered) VR and not the stand-alone world. In fact, so many people literally went to Best Buy or Walmart to purchase a Quest that it has been sold out since the beginning of the year, online and off, with eBay pricing at 50%+ premiums. Yo…

The problem is, those numbers are nowhere near close to the price of making triple-A games. I heard Assassins Creed Origins cost 80 mio and Odyssey was 100 mio. With that in mind, "Top games have made over $10m" sounds like we won't be seeing high quality VR games anytime soon.

So now it's "AAA or it's a flop"?

It does feel like the goalposts are being placed wherever VR isn't.

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