536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018) • Hacker News Board

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#141

Post by SpicyLemonZest » Thu, Jun 18, 2020, 9:18 PM UTC

tastyfreeze wrote: post #102

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Although it's worth asking, did the eruption affect agricultural output in Iceland? Maybe modern farming is just resilient enough against volcanic eruptions, as it is against all the other things that used to cause famines.

Modern farming is not resilient in any way. Production is centralized, mechanized and heavily reliant on outside inputs. Global trade lessens the degree to which a regional crop failure affects a population. Smaller, distributed, local farms lessen the reliance on trade but still very much rely on our gracious host to provide clean rain and sun. The only way to escape that is immense amounts of electricity for indoor…

It's my understanding that even the worst case eruptions described in the article didn't make it globally impossible to grow crops. IIUC they just produced a higher than normal prevalence of local issues.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#142

Post by ummonk » Thu, Jun 18, 2020, 9:20 PM UTC

> What came to be called the Plague of Justinian spread rapidly, wiping out one-third to one-half of the population of the eastern Roman Empire and hastening its collapse, McCormick says.

Hastening its collapse several centuries later?

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#143

Post by pfdietz » Thu, Jun 18, 2020, 9:21 PM UTC

godzillabrennus wrote: post #127

aksss wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's no way for anyone to make money by being responsible Not just that, but there's no way to sustain the level of human development (and population) we currently have without continuing to feed the energy beast. Our daily burn rate on oil/gas/coal is so profoundly high, and growing, that a) nothing can fill the gap; and b) it can't be shut down without condemning further development (esp. in Africa, India and…

We can use nuclear ️ to lower carbon emissions.

Using renewables would be more cost effective, even up to 100% replacement of fossil fuels. Cost of storage does not change this conclusion.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#144

Post by aksss » Thu, Jun 18, 2020, 9:21 PM UTC

chadlavi wrote: post #11

The worst year to be alive _so far_

"How Are Things? Better. Better Than Tomorrow, Of Course—Worse Than Yesterday" - Credit to Eugene Volokh who posted this old saying from Soviet Europe this morning.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#145

Post by bhaak » Thu, Jun 18, 2020, 9:25 PM UTC

cs702 wrote: post #76

Not just the worst year to be alive, but also the beginning of the worst century to be alive: "The repeated blows, followed by plague, plunged Europe into economic stagnation that lasted until 640." Imagine the kind of horror and suffering that a century of global economic stagnation inflicts on generations of people.

You can take that even further as the sewage systems in Europe didn't recover until the 18th/19th century.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#146

Post by aksss » Thu, Jun 18, 2020, 9:29 PM UTC

pfdietz wrote: post #143

godzillabrennus wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can use nuclear ️ to lower carbon emissions.

Using renewables would be more cost effective, even up to 100% replacement of fossil fuels. Cost of storage does not change this conclusion.

There is zero chance of 100% replacement of fossil fuels with renewables. Zero. Without a Thanos solution.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkj_91IJVBk&list=WL&index=5&...

EDIT: I mean, you guys are downvoting these comments, and I'm sorry to tell you things you don't want to hear, but would prefer that you respond with contrary information rather than downvoting. Happy to alter my views and engage in information sharing.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#147

Post by arnarbi » Thu, Jun 18, 2020, 9:32 PM UTC

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #71

SllX wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hmm, well we saw something like it recently and it mostly just stranded people in Europe from what I recall. Eyjafjallajökull erupted in Iceland about 10 years ago and there wasn’t anything we could do but wait it out, and it was a lot less severe than what’s described in this article.

Although it's worth asking, did the eruption affect agricultural output in Iceland? Maybe modern farming is just resilient enough against volcanic eruptions, as it is against all the other things that used to cause famines.

For the recent eruption prevailing winds were from the north, and the volcano is on the south coast. So most of the effects were blown out to sea. But farms in the vicinity of the volcano certainly felt it:

https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/iceland-volcano-p... (see e.g. the photos from 5.11.10)

http://lisa.lbhi.is/lisalib/getfile.aspx?itemid=2747

https://www.vegagerdin.is/Vefur2.nsf/Files/Ahrif_eldgossins_...

The larger eruption in 1783 killed over half of livestock, and a quarter of the human population in the ensuing famine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laki

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#148

Post by runarberg » Thu, Jun 18, 2020, 9:33 PM UTC

Two things strike me as odd in this article:

> 536 Icelandic volcano erupts, dimming the sun for 18 months

I’m not aware of any evidence that the 536 eruption happened in Iceland. Ash has been found in both Antarctica and Greenland indicating that the eruption was probably much closer to the equator[1].

> 541–543 The “Justinian” bubonic plague spreads through the Mediterranean, killing 35%–55% of the population and speeding the collapse of the eastern Roman Empire.

The Roman empire stood for another 9 centuries after the Justinian plague. I was under the impression that Justinian the Great had overextended the empire in the sixth century so it naturally shrunk to a more manageable size.

1: https://kvennabladid.is/2018/11/20/ekkert-bendir-til-ad-risa... (Icelandic)

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#149

Post by sprainedankles » Thu, Jun 18, 2020, 9:37 PM UTC

While an 18-month fog sounds terrifying, I'm absolutely fascinated by the amount of clues we can gather from geological formations like glaciers. The universe has encoded information in so many neat ways, and our ability to cross-reference these measurements with written histories is pretty cool.

Fascination aside, this is another one of those sobering reminders that whatever I spend my time on as an engineer might be worth absolutely nothing in the near-term, and that's a bit frustrating. What could I be doing to help engineer a better world for future generations? How do I optimize my individual talents so I can achieve the most impact in my lifetime? How do I find the right team of other humans to work toward this? Convince others or myself that it's a worthy cause? (I could care less about legacy or personal comforts/gains - I just want to help humanity move forward, not maintain it)

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#150

Post by refurb » Thu, Jun 18, 2020, 9:39 PM UTC

danharaj wrote: post #38

jandrese wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

North American natives were not good about writing stuff down, and by the time Europeans showed up it was almost a millennium later so the records would have been scanty even if the Europeans hadn't gone on insane rampages spreading death, disease, and destruction everywhere they went.

Oral traditions record, among other things, historical events.

This is my understanding from chatting with a number of First Nation in Canada.

Most of the tribe's stories were passed down verbally, rather than written down.