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Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

blog.cerebralab.com

141–150 of 350 posts

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#141

> 3. Most "good" programmers move to the high-income countries > Again, fairly hard to find data on this I'm surprised it's hard to find data, but yes, this consistently matches my observation over the past 30 years and four different geographic locations: very few American programmers are American at all. When I did my master's in CS 15 years ago, I was almost always the only person in the room born in the United St…

> master's

A master's degree from an American university is a huge benefit when trying to get a visa. That means there are plenty of international students who want to get master's degrees from American universities because it helps them get into the country.

Americans don't need visas, so most of them don't bother getting a master's degree, because there is not as much benefit relative to the opportunity cost.

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#142

Could the working culture also affect the average salary? For example, an average US employee will on average work 30% more hours per year than a German employee [1]. Working in the Netherlands, I also know that a lot of engineers will deliberately choose to work part time (e.g. 30h/week) even if it ends up with a lower annual income. [1] https://data.oecd.org/emp/hours-worked.htm

I think not. In Indonesia or even Spain they work plenty hours. It's too bad the author didn't talk about the amount of VC money per capita, I think that's the main factor really.

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#143
I think the issue is the false premise that programming is just one occupation akin to chain factory working the same everywhere for everyone. You cannot compare a coder in an outsourced shop doing "plumbing" implementing some enterprise UML specification and engineers in the Silicon Valley that are pretty much defining the business in a close loop with product design. At that point why are we not comparing salaries of consultants, salespeople, or pretty much asking why are salaries lower in certain countries and why are not companies outsourcing all their positions there?

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#144

“ Doctors in the US and UK are very expensive, that's not because nobody has noticed there are equally skilled doctors in other countries that charge 1/5th the price (or even algorithms that can do most of it for pennies). It's because practicing medicine in those countries requires to go through a regulatory gauntlet that would make Kafka feel like an unimaginative fraud.” Ouch. Yeah some US/UK doctors are overpaid…

> I don’t know any even in radiology/pathology that can rival a physician

You're saying this based on..?

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#145

Interesting switzerland is mentioned, there does seem to be a shortage of programmers here, our company recruits a sizeable chunk from abroad. Also, if you search in a local language, especially german, there are a lot of open positions, where fluent command of the local language is required.

I considered immigrating to Switzerland at some point but the heavy emphasis on local languages (even in programming jobs) put me off. It's much more relaxed in the Netherlands.

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is also visa issues, not wanting to be away from family, liking the life/culture of your home country... Surely it's easy from Germany to Switzerland or Canada to the US, when you're moving to a different continent it's a whole different experience.

Consider the opportunities for your children growing up in a developed country with an above average income vs. staying back home. It's the same networking effects you would benefit from by moving, but multiplied since they get them from the start.

Germany isn't developed?

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#147
post #65

Absolutely no swiss programmer is going to Germany, I can tell you that much. The demand is just that much higher than the supply.

I'm sure that's a false statement, there's tons of reasons for people to move out of their country to try something else. Especially considering the amount of opportunity Germany provides compared to Switzerland. Let's say you really wanna find a Haskell job, how easy is that to do in Switzerland?

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#148
This very very poorly written article is the number one reason why universities assign advisors to PhD students!

If this guy would just talk to one single person who knew something about silicon valley then they wouldn't throw out all these useless theories into a vacuum.

You can just look at America for your answers. If you look at the history of silicon valley in the 1970s it was Chip companies in the 1980s it was PC hardware companies in the 1990s it was networking companies and the 2000s it was internet companies and in the 2010s it is transportation companies. The chip cpu companies have been ejected from silicon valley (vlsi design happens in oregon and austin). The PC hardware companies have been ejected from silicon valley (motherboard design and I/o design in Asia and oregon). Cisco is struggling to hang on but they are being ejected from silicon valley. People are packed into cubicles like sardines there.

The fact is if you have a lot of money silicon valley is the nicest place to live in the richest (overall) country in the world. in these fields you are 100% mobile and the work can be done anywhere so people choose to live with their peers in a place with more recreational and cultural opportunities than anyplace else on earth. And yes they struggle to afford it. Yes there is an underclass with lesser skills who might be well-served by moving to a lower income city or state but they are a fraction - maybe 20% of silicon valley.

People leave silicon valley for Boulder or Seattle most often. more land, less housing pressure, and almost as many recreational opportunities!

if a guy like this wants to know the answer he should talk to my friend who started a 20 million dollar software company in Chicago and then moved to Prague to try to repeat it and he knows exactly why software engineering doesn't scale in Eastern European countries! He is back in the USA running an organic foods company!

another possibility is another friend of mine who went to MIT lives in Taiwan and comes to USA gathers software design projects takes it back home writes this back and has his local programmers implement the system. I am certain he has a world of understanding of why software engineering is not uniformly spread worldwide.

End these other places like Vancouver where I worked as a professor it would have been better for me to get a job as a bus driver I would have been able to buy real estate sooner that way. The economics of deferred gratification just doesn't work in many foreign countries.

There is another answer which is probably the same as why don't other countries have professional football teams like the USA. there are feeder programs that start for talented software engineers as age as young as five years old (I interviewed someone yesterday whose mom began teaching him logo at age 5, after she herself took a class in it).

It's that easy - just freaking talk to someone who knows - don't generate ideas in a vacuum!

Re: Is a trillion dollars’ worth of programming lying on the ground?

#149
Other anecdote was: "if there is $20 on the ground in Grand Central, don't bother picking it up because if it was real someone would already take it".

Taxes and regulations are complicated, it is not "just hire a contractor", market is not all knowing and all optimizing because there is no global market, each country has its own market, because of taxes, regulations, visas. You still have to have trusted contractor otherwise you risk money. Good luck chasing someone from the other part of globe if something goes really bad.

For setting up branch office, that costs a lot of money and time. If you have medium business and you are a company owner you don't have time to manage an office 1k miles away. You have to spend time getting customers and selling, again you don't want to waste time on learning tax code in some other country. I bet also most people would rather earn money locally and spend time with their family. There is a huge opportunity cost.

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