Earlier quoted context omitted.
It wont, they just showed that they rather let the system explode than implode; the balance, proper self-organization, invisible hand etc, was lost ten years ago
History has plenty examples of bailouts. “Invisible hand” was never there to begin with, much less 10 years ago.
Was corporate profit growth a bubble inflated by "financial engineering"?
141–150 of 204 posts
Re: Was corporate profit growth a bubble inflated by "financial engineering"?
#142Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is unnecessarily dismissive..
Yes. I shouldn’t have clicked Submit - it was out of frustration. It’s one of those things we won’t know except in hindsight. So: frustrated at the situation and at the article and at my inability to grasp what the hell is going on on markets. Misquoting Scott Adams, we have now Confusomarkets. Though probably they were always confusing but the more I try to interpret them logically the more duped by them I am. The o…
For instance; you know people have gotten laid off in record numbers. That means people aren't getting paid. People who aren't getting paid are clamping down on any expenditure possible aside from absolute necessities. That means, if you're entertainment in any way, you are likely hosed unless your specialty is direct to consumer last mile service.
Production/producers may see some growth. There may be more growth in sectors that enable remote work/telepresence. Otherwise, just about everything else will be dropping, and stimulus will likely slow the drop but not reverse it until the pandemic has run it's course sufficiently that healthcare systems are no longer overwhelmed. Most likely, other shareholders are seeing this too, and are trying to cash out, further fueling the drop in share prices across the board. The people who correctly timed the market have already gone and converted their assets to cash, which is king in deflationary periods.
The stimulus might provide some liquidity/stimulated demand, but I have the feeling a liquidity trap situation may occur where people will hold onto any injected value for dear life.
I wouldn't hold much faith in any type of securitized asset right now unless it's from a big (established) player; and Note that that isn't necessarily "good" for the economy if that complacency gets noticed and acted upon by major players. It may be a good time to look at a new entrant who is providing a service to ease the pains created by the new pandemic; just make sure to do due diligence, because the fraudsters all know that too.
Collectively, I think we're going to have to come to terms with deflationary period. I don't think it can be avoided. At least we shouldn't have to worry about stagflation in the same way They did in the 70's. Oil is uh... Quite plentiful. Unfortunately for those long in the petroleum industry.
Re: Was corporate profit growth a bubble inflated by "financial engineering"?
#143Do people not expect the market to go down when business revenues have been forced lower due to unforeseen circumstances? The fact is a valuation made in November 2019 had no way of taking this into account. This isn't to say whether or not it's a bubble, but I am surprised at the number of people who think that stock prices going down is due to financial health of companies rather than people attempting to sell stoc…
> because they suddenly need the liquid cash on hand (due to job loss) How much market volume do you think is attributed to retail investors?
Re: Was corporate profit growth a bubble inflated by "financial engineering"?
#144The bubble has been enabled by the Federal Reserve. Quantitative easing and money printing has served to inflate asset prices over many years. For some reason markets going up is fine but when they inevitably decline sharply this is viewed as 'disorderly' and the Fed prints money to keep asset prices high. The Fed ensures that hedge funds have counter-parties to buy their toxic overvalued assets. It's now clear that…
Re: Was corporate profit growth a bubble inflated by "financial engineering"?
#145Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is not "unproductive" from the perspective of the economy, but it is "unproductive" (i.e. low-returning) from the perspective of shareholders. We would not expect to see share prices rising if corporate profits in aggregate are not rising (unless there is some financial engineering going on).
We would expect it under certain circumstances. One explanation could be falling interest rates. Lower rates on bonds incentivize investors to take on more risk (moving more money into equities) in order to still meet their return targets.
Re: Was corporate profit growth a bubble inflated by "financial engineering"?
#146One man's bubble is another man's under valuation. Big moves when there is big news (like a global pandemic say) are normal events. The thing I find concerning is why the FED are "intervening". Dumping cash made sense during a cash shortage. But when there are actual, real, concerns about the future (coronavirus), price falls are perfectly correct. They don't need "fixing". Happy to be corrected if anyone knows?
It's happening at some layers above where personal finances occur. There is a massive demand for digital USD (bank liquidity) around the world, this is coming from a few directions such as domestic and international companies taking out new loans and calling in terms of existing loans to keep afloat without having income right now. International banks needing more USD to meet increased demand. It's like a perfect sto…
Re: Was corporate profit growth a bubble inflated by "financial engineering"?
#147Earlier quoted context omitted.
I thought the same, and had to ask some friends to provide another point of view: If a company like amazon generates very little corporate profit, is that unproductive growth? Aggregate corporate profits are not the only stat that matters when discussing economic growth/value.
> If a company like amazon generates very little corporate profit, is that unproductive growth? Of course not. There would be more employees, more taxes paid, more buildings being built, more assets, etc. thus more money going into the economy. I've always dreamed that companies should run with zero profit (like the outdoor store co-ops like REI or MEC in Canada). They could price their products so they don't make an…
Re: Was corporate profit growth a bubble inflated by "financial engineering"?
#148Earlier quoted context omitted.
I thought the same, and had to ask some friends to provide another point of view: If a company like amazon generates very little corporate profit, is that unproductive growth? Aggregate corporate profits are not the only stat that matters when discussing economic growth/value.
> If a company like amazon generates very little corporate profit, is that unproductive growth? Of course not. There would be more employees, more taxes paid, more buildings being built, more assets, etc. thus more money going into the economy. I've always dreamed that companies should run with zero profit (like the outdoor store co-ops like REI or MEC in Canada). They could price their products so they don't make an…
The whole point of profits and investing is to hook up the "skin in the game" of investors to viability of project. That's the definition of capitalism.
Re: Was corporate profit growth a bubble inflated by "financial engineering"?
#149Earlier quoted context omitted.
The real question is: was it ever allowed to happen? There have been bailouts in some form since forever, it seems.
can you provide a list of examples?
- starting from short riskfree rates [all since 1981, but problems surfaced only in 2008]
- to long riskfree rates [all since 2008]
- to corporate default rates [ECB since 2012, the Fed since 2020]
- and in some cases, even to equity risk premium rates [BOJ and SNB since 2008]
Also China, but China is special, and has a much more fine grip on things that goes far beyond the general rates (they can target sectors specifically, or even individual companies).Expect more alphabet soup of pump facilities to materialize. I don't bother listing them here, it's all the same (reduce this or that rate).