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How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

wsj.com

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Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#141

Post by throwaway32120 »

davelacy wrote: post #31

CDC has there shortcomings, no doubt but let’s not forget who’s truly to blame for the mess we’re in now. The trump administration’s disbandment of federal institutions created to combat this and the ongoing denial of a serious problem have led to a collapsing economy and isolation of millions. Good article here for sure but let’s not pass the blame to the CDC. We know who to blame...

One of the problems with the hyperpartisanship in America is that it prevents people from acknowledging leadership problems that both parties share. Though I think that Trump has done an incredibly poor job of handling this crisis, there's little evidence that other leaders - in Congress, at the state level, in the media, etc. - have done any better. Of course all our leaders will want to blame other people right now - failure is an orphan, as the saying goes.

I just did a search for news articles from the end of January to the end of February, and only found articles like this one[1], where politicians are criticizing the Trump administration's communication, but aren't callng for stronger efforts or mass mobilization (and the article has a quote from Pelosi saying she has confidence in how the CDC is handling things). Congress wasn't passing legislation to fight the pandemic as things were heating up, and governors don't seem to have made effective plans. The media didn't consider it to be a major disaster until recently (it didn't get brought up in the presidential debates until a couple weeks ago, IIRC). Issues like our lack of emergency stores for things like masks and our lack of an ability to manufacture them here is an issue that goes back for years, as is the poor safety net that leaves Americans so vulnerable in times like this.

Hopefully this crisis will encourage people to look at the poor leadership America has had across the board. Simply getting rid of Trump and calling it a day is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/02/05/some-law...

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#142

Post by maxerickson »

rmetzler wrote: post #70
capableweb wrote: post #8

> As the coronavirus epidemic spread around the globe, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provided restrictive guidance on who should be tested, archived pages on its website show. While agencies in other countries were advising and conducting widespread testing, the CDC, charged with setting the U.S. standard for who should be tested for the virus, kept its criteria limited Well, "other countries" also d…

Germany does the same. I’m under the impression that there is a big selection bias because I know a lot of friends who have symptoms but can’t get testing because they don’t fit the criteria. And the criteria is having contact with a known corona patient or traveled to a risk area.

~90% of tests administered with restrictive criteria come back negative. There's a lot of other infections out there.

I don't say that to diminish the importance of testing, my point is that the anecdotes aren't necessarily very informative.

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#143

Post by MiroF »

the8472 wrote: post #125
MiroF wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In emergency situations, it's possible misleading the public might be somewhat necessary to reach optimal health outcomes. There is substantial literature on this question with regards to climate change messaging. The government already misleads the public when it exaggerates things like the actual threat of terrorism to the average American, at least this time it is lying with some sort of societal good in mind.

Perhaps, but it also pours gasoline on the flame of skepticism, once the cat is out of the bag and there's proof that they have lied. I.e. those decisions don't exist in a vacuum, they require (and burn) trust built in the past and decrease trust in the future. At some point it ceases to work and only makes things worse.

Agreed, I think that managing trust is important. At the same time, choices have to be made about what information to emphasize and what to not emphasize, this is inherent to communication.

I think our government's decision to emphasize to the public that masks are not completely protective and that washing your hands is a more effective intervention is probably a good one, even if it neglects the fact that masks are more helpful than not.

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#144

Post by oasisbob »

ceejayoz wrote: post #19
erentz wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole blaming people for hoarding masks and then the "masks don't work" things have been incredibly frustrating. It is almost like authorities didn't want anyone to start asking why the public couldn't get masks, as they can in say Taiwan. Most (if not all) distributors and manufacturers of masks has been prioritizing health care systems and governments over retailers since January. Just as they should do. Were t…

Washington state just seized a restock from a Target in Seattle. https://twitter.com/GovInslee/status/1241505423259099136

Target donated them. Not seized, nor sold.

https://twitter.com/Target/status/1241507826096377858?s=20

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#145

Post by ejstronge »

Symmetry wrote: post #131

Rather than just blaming the CDC, I think the real problem here has been the lack of coordination between the CDC and FDA? CDC: Our test is going to be so much better than the WHO's, we'll test for SARS-CoV-2 in two samples and also test for other simultaneous infections in this third part! FDA: Approved Hospitals: Hey, we can't get that third part to work! CDC: That's ok, just use the first two parts, that's all you…

> FDA: Sure, just make sure to fill out these forms, be sure to send them to us by mail rather than email, and oh, make sure to test against the original SARS to make sure your test doesn't give a false SARS-CoV-19 reading if they patient just has that.

> Laboratory: Uh, sure. Hey, CDC, can I have a sample of SARS to test against?

I've been trying to stay on top of the testing saga, but it's been hard with all the daily changes.

Do you have news links that describe this hypothetical exchange taking place?

EDIT: in particular, the part around the FDA requiring testing against a sample of SARS.

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#146

Post by oasisbob »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #81
erentz wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really want to hear the back story on this. Who is the distributor? Why did they end up at a Target? I'm betting the distributor tried to sell them to hospitals but the hospitals said they weren't appropriate/certified for medical use so couldn't take them? Not much to go on from a tweet but definitely needs investigating.

The respirators in question have exhalation valves[1], so they definitely wouldn't be normally certified for medical use. [1] https://twitter.com/anndornfeld/status/1241372544764006400/p...

That's a good point.

Guessing the fix is to tape over the port?

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#147

Post by sfkdjf9j3j »

Munky-Necan wrote: post #83
CriticalCathed wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is so completely blowing this crisis out of proportion. I am so confused by the tenor of the discourse on HN. I expected more from this place.

Chernobyl was projected to kill millions. The top epidemiologists in the world projected in the most realistic scenarios that the death toll would have been in the millions prior to the quarantines. Both could have been prevented if people knew the truth well in advance of the crisis. Call it hyperbole, but the Spanish Flu killed millions because the public was not told the truth soon enough. We were likewise told th…

Don't you think it's more likely that the Spanish flu was so widespread because of the unhygienic conditions and stressed infrastructure caused by World War 1?

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#148

Post by thoraway1010 »

tyingq wrote: post #5

The mask guidance is confusing as well. I get they are trying to preserve masks for medical staff. But, they also say it's mainly spread by coughing, sneezing, and resulting spray of bodily fluids. Surely even a scarf around your face would have some benefit? Yes, I get that the virus is small enough to pass through, but some deflection is better than none.

Masks work, masks are low impact on daily living, masks are used successfully overseas by countries that didn't lock down their society (tawain / Singapore etc) - huge empahsis on masks including govt run websites with live maps showing where to get them, masks in all post offices for distribution etc and BIG production increases.

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#149

Post by wool_gather »

IggleSniggle wrote: post #75
jliptzin wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea this is really frustrating. I bought a box of 10 N-95s in January when I saw what was going on in China and figured they’d be good to have, since I have older people in my family who are in poor health (leukemia, diabetes, heart disease). Now since I’m shopping and cooking for them, I am trying really hard not to get sick so I wear a mask to the stores and I’m getting looks from people like I stole them from a ho…

It's quite possible that people think you are wearing a mask because they think YOU are sick, as that is the mask's primary effect (preventing you from spreading your disease to others)

The primary purpose of a filtering mask [is to protect the wearer][0]. They coincidentally protect the environment, too, [unless of course they have a built-in check valve][1] that passes unfiltered air out of the mask.

[0]:https://ohsonline.com/articles/2014/05/01/comparison-respira... [1]:https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B008MCV1HY/ref=as_li_tl?ie...

Re: How the CDC’s restrictive testing guidelines hid the coronavirus epidemic

#150

Post by susanhi »

We have 330 million people in US.

China has ramped their mask production to 200 million masks a day.

Had US government had the foresight and common sense to contract mask manufacturers to even produce half of what China is producing - let’s say 100 million masks, we could have had enough for everyone to have a mask in 3-4 days.

Universal masks for everyone (not only health care workers) together with hygiene protocol should be the way to “flatten the curve”. This would at the very least inhibit spread by those who have coronavirus but don’t know it yet (asymptomatic).

But instead, we’re having these mass shelter in place orders that are destroying our economy, killing businesses and destroying people’s livelihoods.

And I still haven’t heard of massive government contracts to mask manufacturers at the scale needed to provide masks for everyone.

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