Corona is killing a negligible % of the population, mostly very old and very sick people (checkout the official data from the Italian health ministary - average age of dead patiences is 79.5 years, all of them with severe background illness, in a part of the country where 29% of the population is at least 60 yeard old. Those are the facts.). If anyting, what we are experiencing is not a corona pandemic but a massive,…
> all of them with severe background illness, Diabetes, high blood pressure, obesity: these aren't what people think of as "severe background illness", but all of these seriously increase risk.
The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
141–150 of 253 posts
Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
#142165M deaths actually sounds plausible for covid19, if it overwhelms health care in India and developing world countries...
Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
#143Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hospitals are saturated, because people are panicking. For almost all people, just staying at home for a few days is enough.
You don't get admitted to ICU because you're panicking. You get admitted to ICU because multiple doctors think you need to be there. London hospitals have started to become overwhelmed with patients, and this is only going to get worse. https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/hospitals-critical-care-unit-over...
Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
#144Earlier quoted context omitted.
And I am having serious misgivings about posting it, nonetheless, many people have expressed deep concerned, and I'm doing the same, only with actual data. I made it clear the limits of my knowledge - which may still not excuse me, however I have to ask if you are an epidemiologist and if so, please tell me how to model the data better. And I don't mean randomly google up some papers to dump here and pretend you are…
>> And I am having serious misgivings about posting it, nonetheless, many people have expressed deep concerned, and I'm doing the same, only with actual data. There is no "actual data" in your comment above. There is a claim that you make that you have graphed some data, but no graphs and no data. Also, it doesn't take an epidemiologist to know that a non-epidemiologist should not play at epidemiology. The other post…
There is in http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#w which I said matches what I've found rather well.
> The other poster doesn't have any responsibility to tell you "how to model the data better".
Yes he does,
Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
#145Something I talk about a fair amount: It's incredibly hard to measure what didn't happen but should have. Humans are really bad at that, and understandably so.
If we had adopted a lot of the practices being advocated currently and avoided the epidemic, no one would know or believe we had accomplished anything. Having a pandemic and defeating it is the only way humanity can know and understand with confidence that we need to make a lot of changes to make life work with so many billions of people on the planet.
I have a serious medical condition. I've gotten off all drugs. I know what my life is supposed to look like because I know what my condition is supposed to do. Other people have what I have. I know the typical prognosis.
Yet I have no credibility. I've been mocked and attacked and dismissed online for years because other people cannot see that I've done anything and don't believe I have. Other people can't see what I see and it makes me look to them like a loon suffering hallucinations, not a visionary that people ought to listen to.
I once had someone email me and tell me "I give my child the sea salt and coconut oil you've recommended, and he's in the ER less, but he's not on fewer drugs."
She meant he still was on the same amount of maintenance drugs as before. She wasn't really recognizing that fewer ER visits meant fewer rounds of antibiotics, steroids and similar.
The child was taking less medication, but the mother couldn't quite manage to count the drugs that weren't happening. In her mind, it would only count if her child could reduce his maintenance drugs.
There are a lot of things I hope we change. But the reality is that without a pandemic, no one would believe those changes actually provide germ control and actually matter to the functioning of the world. People would just find the restrictions annoying and pointless and would rebel against it.
You are only going to get compliance when enough people have been burned that change seems less onerous than not changing. That's basically how humans always handle things.
It's frustrating. I wish it weren't so.
But people don't change everything at great cost to avoid disaster based on predictions and models. We make those changes because we got burned in actual fact, not in theory, and we don't want to go back.
And then it's no longer hypothetical. Then it's actually real and we aren't running from Boogeymen. We're problem solving and dealing with actual reality.
Then you see real change.
Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
#146Is there in any way a brighter side to this? Something I talk about a fair amount: It's incredibly hard to measure what didn't happen but should have. Humans are really bad at that, and understandably so. If we had adopted a lot of the practices being advocated currently and avoided the epidemic, no one would know or believe we had accomplished anything. Having a pandemic and defeating it is the only way humanity can…
Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
#147Earlier quoted context omitted.
"Beginning" might be the wrong term, as it's a bit into the beginning that it starts to make a difference. Local saturation happens fairly quickly. Having 100 infected in one place is very much different to having 1 infection happening 100 different places when you look at it after a week When you're looking at the "country" view, the "older state" gets lost in the transmissions happening from people crossing borders…
> people have been flying back to the states with infections spread out over the entire country while cross-border spread has been much more localized in italy I still don't see the difference? Why do you think that the cross-border movement of the disease should be different in Europe compared to the US? Why do you think that the US should be worse off, if that is your point? Do you think people more fly back to the…
Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
#148Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not a question of cost at this point. It's a question of availability of reagents and consumables, materials to make those, and time it takes to ramp up. The supply chain is like a supertanker. At first we didn't have enough test, but that ramped up quickly, then we didn't have enough RNA extraction reagent, now we don't have enough swabs, and soon is the collection media that will be missing. There has been a c…
We do not have tests. https://covidtracking.com/data/ We have tested 150K people. We have 327M people in the US, we have tested 0.00046% of the population. We do not have tests.
You didn’t multiply by 100 to change from per unit to per cent.
Still bad though.
Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
#149Earlier quoted context omitted.
If that were true, we should see a much higher proportion of tested people showing positive. Also we shouldn't see the proportion of people tested being positive shooting up, but we do. Those ILI stats were probably just Flu.
I believe that most of the current testing only shows active infections?
Re: The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
#150Earlier quoted context omitted.
> the USA curve is fearsomely steep This analysis is difficult because it is related to testing capacity. We all know testing capacity was limited early on. It remains limited, but is growing. The faster capacity grows, the steeper the curve will be. Want to have a less steep curve? Lower the amount of testing. In another comment, you claim looking at the curves leaves out politics completely, but it doesn't. Any pol…
I am worried that we are choosing the second route with articles like this one: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-20/coronavi...