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Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

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Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#141

Post by magicsmoke »

pradn wrote: post #116
vortico wrote: post #29

Slightly unrelated, but why does the stock market close each night? If trading was open 24/7, we wouldn't have large spikes like this every morning. We'd only have them when certain news is announced.

So we can use garbage-collected languages in trading systems without turning on the garbage collector - just collect it all at the end of the trading day. I'm joking but this is a real technique.

It is, there was this HFT firm I interned at once that rebooted all their servers at the end of the trading day to make sure they would start clean and fast the next day.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#142

Post by chadmeister »

adventured wrote: post #114
treis wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil prices going down is a good thing for the economy. I think people are confusing cause with an effect/correlation. Oil going down usually indicates a recession. Bad economy -> Lower demand for Oil -> Lower oil prices. In that case it's a signal/trailing indicator. In this case it's: Increased oil supply -> Lower oil prices -> Everything gets cheaper to make -> Increased economic activity

> Oil prices going down is a good thing for the economy. That is no longer strictly correct. The ideal oil price for the US economy is a balance between high and low, which provides a high degree of employment for the US oil industry, oil production and export expansion remain high, and provides a reasonable price for US consumers when it comes to gasoline. Oil in a range of perhaps $45 to $75, is ideal. At $25-$35 y…

I think you're the only person in this thread presenting arguments based on facts. I would just like to say that I really appreciate that, especially when everyone else is running around like chickens with their heads cut off like the sky is falling.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#143

Post by mech1234 »

aaronblohowiak wrote: post #58
aswanson wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correction is way overdue. Problem is, Fed has no ammo left with interest rates at near zero. We're in for rough days, people.

The yield on the 10 year... Now is the perfect time to finance a bunch of govt spending (not that I expect this admin to embrace fiscal policy)

Trump runs huge deficits during boom times. He'll probably run even huger deficits during bust times.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#144

Post by take_a_breath »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #137
take_a_breath wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

==First, there is negative rates. Punishing people for holding cash. The ECB and Bank of Japan have done a lot of pioneering work there, the Fed will have already extensively studied what they did, what worked, what didn't work. Second, they have QE, monetizing debt & debasing dollar wealth, which is exactly what they'll unleash for the next recession. Inflation isn't much of a concern right now, so they'll feel free…

Housing is not a household item?

No, it's not. You can't buy houses at WalMart or Costco because they sell household goods, not housing. [1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_goods

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#145

Post by JoeAltmaier »

treis wrote: post #74
fancyfredbot wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is widely being blamed on oil prices (edit: the virus would have been priced in last week to some extent, but the decision by Saudi Arabia to increase oil production happened over the weekend and hadn't been).

Oil prices going down is a good thing for the economy. I think people are confusing cause with an effect/correlation. Oil going down usually indicates a recession. Bad economy -> Lower demand for Oil -> Lower oil prices. In that case it's a signal/trailing indicator. In this case it's: Increased oil supply -> Lower oil prices -> Everything gets cheaper to make -> Increased economic activity

Its easy to play connect-the-dots. Rarely is that the whole story. There are many other dot-to-dot paths that result in very different effects. The sum total of all the chains is what makes the economy so hard to predict.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#146

Post by Digory »

treis wrote: post #74
fancyfredbot wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is widely being blamed on oil prices (edit: the virus would have been priced in last week to some extent, but the decision by Saudi Arabia to increase oil production happened over the weekend and hadn't been).

Oil prices going down is a good thing for the economy. I think people are confusing cause with an effect/correlation. Oil going down usually indicates a recession. Bad economy -> Lower demand for Oil -> Lower oil prices. In that case it's a signal/trailing indicator. In this case it's: Increased oil supply -> Lower oil prices -> Everything gets cheaper to make -> Increased economic activity

The Saudis are trying to break the back of US fracking by piling on. This won't free up room in the US economy like it used to.

If you lean bearish, you’re thinking 80s oil bust, S&L Crisis, and the Spanish flu.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#147

Post by dna_polymerase »

vortico wrote: post #29

Slightly unrelated, but why does the stock market close each night? If trading was open 24/7, we wouldn't have large spikes like this every morning. We'd only have them when certain news is announced.

Doesn't matter really, most liquidity seems to be in the closing 30-minutes anyway. [0]

[0]: https://www.ft.com/content/9e1f05b4-43e7-11e8-803a-295c97e6f...

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#148

Post by theseadroid »

hi5eyes wrote: post #126
ailideex wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This will be blamed on COVID-19 Good. Because I don't buy for a moment that without COVID-19 the situation would be what it is now. Hindsight is 2020 and predictions of doom and stock market collapse is a dime a dozen.

markets knew about covid for a month before it started tanking

markets started to know the scale of U.S. government's incompetence in handling Covid 19 now.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#149

Post by ngcc_hk »

aswanson wrote: post #39
aazaa wrote: post #10

This will be blamed on COVID-19, but the problems go much deeper. Last year the Fed lost control of the repo market. the event was widely discounted at the time as an end-of-tax-year fluke. It wasn't. Six month ago, the yield curve inverted. People who should have known better said "this time is different." Speculators have been trained over the course of 10+ years to buy the dip. The Fed has your back. What we're se…

Correction is way overdue. Problem is, Fed has no ammo left with interest rates at near zero. We're in for rough days, people.

It is not a problem with correction or even recession. Without one you cannot eliminate those weak and continue the rich as rich. You need some cycle. Desperately need it.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#150

Post by rchaud »

hi5eyes wrote: post #126
ailideex wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This will be blamed on COVID-19 Good. Because I don't buy for a moment that without COVID-19 the situation would be what it is now. Hindsight is 2020 and predictions of doom and stock market collapse is a dime a dozen.

markets knew about covid for a month before it started tanking

The markets may have "priced in" the impact of COVID-19 based on a couple of scenarios. But they may also have priced in other factors, such as the plateauing impact of US corp tax cuts, share buybacks and cheap capital.

It's likely however that those scenarios didn't attach a high weight to the probability like 20 million Italians living in a state of quarantine, or that 8,000 plus patients in China would die and industrial production levels would plummet.

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