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First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

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Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#141

Post by Fomite »

tptacek wrote: post #57
aodin wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While SARS does have a longer incubation period, typically 2-7 days compared to the common flu's 1-4 days, the "slow transmission" that you've witnessed is more likely the successful work of national and international public health agencies preventing its spread. Especially by means of contact tracing and quarantine. Seasonal flu variants have a lethality of around 0.1%. The Spanish flu of 1918 was around 2%. SARS ha…

Just according to superficial stats, it looks like the flu kills orders of magnitude more people than SARS and MERS. Is the public health response to these diseases really so effective as to account for most of this difference? I don't pay close attention but also wouldn't off the top of my head be able to describe anything that, say, Washington State does to effectively respond to CoV incidents to keep it from propa…

So lots of people get the flu, but few people die from it.

Few people get SARS/MERS, but they're much more likely to die.

There are a lot of reasons for that. And yes, Washington State can effectively respond to CoV incidents - contact tracing, which is what you need to get people into isolation, is very labor intensive, and probably going on right now. State health departments help support hospitals in doing infection control work (to prevent within hospital transmission) and a lot of coordinating.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#142

Post by DoofusOfDeath »

Nothorized wrote: post #77
diehunde wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I travel almost every week and washing my hands every time I can plus never touching my face have kept me ill-free for a couple of years now. Of course I also take other precautions like avoiding closed spaces with sick people, good sleep, drink water and exercise regularly.

How did you break the constant need to touch your face? I tried to do that, and in 5 minutes I am back in touching some part of my face.

I've been able to mostly stop rubbing my eyes or nose, when I'm serious about staying healthy.

If I'm desperate, I rub them with some piece of clothing that's not much exposed to the air, such as the inside of my t-shirt. Or alternatively, washing my hands carefully with soap and water immediately before rubbing my eyes.

I can't say for sure if those measures helped, but it seems plausible based on my experience.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#143

Post by Fomite »

ryanmercer wrote: post #27
satokema_work wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish wearing hospital masks was more accepted. Out of the listed reactions, it's probably the least overreaction possible, especially if it's a fashionable one and not actually hospital color...

I've read such conflicting information on them. Some sources say they protect other people from you more than they do you, some say they protect you 60-80%, some say washing your hands properly (and frequently) is more effective etc.

As an epidemiologist, this is an "and" not an "or".

You need to wash your hands to supplement a mask. If you believe it's working, the mask is now covered in infectious fomites, and you need to get it off you without infecting yourself.

The good news is coronaviruses are enveloped, and thus relatively susceptible for disinfectants.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#144

Post by Fomite »

ohazi wrote: post #59
Enginerrrd wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wearing an N95 mask and washing your hands properly will prevent the overwhelming majority of transmission. Could someone still sneeze in your eye? Sure. Could you wear your mask improperly because you haven't been fit tested, yeah. But you sure can reduce your risk a lot.

> Could you wear your mask improperly because you haven't been fit tested, yeah. It is next to impossible to wear an N95 mask correctly.

It's also not at all clear that N95 masks are meaningfully superior to surgical masks.

One of several studies on the topic: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4868605/

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#145

Post by greglindahl »

kaylynb wrote: post #58
ryanmercer wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've read such conflicting information on them. Some sources say they protect other people from you more than they do you, some say they protect you 60-80%, some say washing your hands properly (and frequently) is more effective etc.

Even if the mask doesn't actually protect you, it will prevent you from touching your face and mouth absent-mindlessly.

Do you have any data about that?

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#146

Post by Fomite »

Enginerrrd wrote: post #130
anonuser123456 wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Wearing an N95 mask and washing your hands properly will prevent the overwhelming majority of transmission. My understanding is that there is no evidence wearing an N95 mask reduces transmission to the person wearing it. It prevents transmission from the that person to others.

No, this is very wrong. You're thinking of surgical mask, in which case the standard precautions conform to what you said in their intent, and studies show both are actually effective in preventing transmission when worn by patients. [1] An N95 is the current recommended standard (for medical works to wear) to prevent droplet transmission when working with high-risk patients on respiratory precautions since it is act…

From your second citation: "Although N95 respirators appeared to have a protective advantage over surgical masks in laboratory settings, our meta-analysis showed that there were insufficient data to determine definitively whether N95 respirators are superior to surgical masks in protecting health care workers against transmissible acute respiratory infections in clinical settings."

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#147

Post by makomk »

nickczj wrote: post #122
exposay wrote: post #108

China has been covering it up for 2 months. Minimal action was taken to prevent the disease from spreading and they kept denying until a couple days ago when it was no longer possible to cover it up because it is spreading to neighboring countries who have been complaining for the whole time. Regional/local governments have been trying to downplay it because it makes them "look bad". It is essentially a replay of SAR…

China doesn't get to decide the scientific consensus. Teams of scientists spanning multiple countries + NGOs like the WHO make the risk assessment. The reason the scientific consensus was that there was no human-human transmission was because...there was no evidence of human-human transmission. All previous cases could be directly traced back to the market, and there were previously no clear evidence of healthcare wo…

All previous cases that had been reported to the WHO could be directly traced back to the market. That might be a rather important distinction if the rumours about regional and local governments covering up possible cases are accurate...

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#148

Post by WiPo »

nickczj wrote: post #122
exposay wrote: post #108

China has been covering it up for 2 months. Minimal action was taken to prevent the disease from spreading and they kept denying until a couple days ago when it was no longer possible to cover it up because it is spreading to neighboring countries who have been complaining for the whole time. Regional/local governments have been trying to downplay it because it makes them "look bad". It is essentially a replay of SAR…

China doesn't get to decide the scientific consensus. Teams of scientists spanning multiple countries + NGOs like the WHO make the risk assessment. The reason the scientific consensus was that there was no human-human transmission was because...there was no evidence of human-human transmission. All previous cases could be directly traced back to the market, and there were previously no clear evidence of healthcare wo…

It's really sad to see that Chinese scientist and health workers are somehow 'sacrificed' due to some covering up of some regional and local official. When people refer to China I think it's more like the local officials who have done all the cover-up not only to 'save face' but more like to save their position. Yeah but I agree that a distinction between groups of Chinese people has to be clarified and referred to more precisely.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#149

Post by kapilvt »

tenpies wrote: post #88
yingw787 wrote: post #38

I read on Reddit that Chinese New Year is the largest regularly occurring human migration event in the world. Millions of Chinese people gather on public transport and planes To go home to celebrate. It’s in a few days I think. Also I’m not sure how the CDC is preparing for this under 45, but given the state of the federal government I would guess it’s less prepared than the days of the Ebola scare. Hopefully things…

> Also I’m not sure how the CDC is preparing for this under 45, but given the state of the federal government I would guess it’s less prepared than the days of the Ebola scare. Despite "45" apparently being such a comic book villain as to warrant "guess[ing the CDC is] less prepared", the CDC has actually had guidelines out since August 2019: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/preparedness/checklist-... This is par…

Guidelines for what in relation to the current emerging new coronavirus? Mers is an entirely different coronavirus that’s been around for a few years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndro...

Here’s the cdc page on the coronavirus that’s the subject of this thread https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/ much of this is still emerging re what we know, Afaics the mortality rate appears to be well below both SARS and MERS

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#150

Post by dang »

UncleOxidant wrote: post #44

I feel like this administration with their anti-science bias and their cuts to the CDC may not be the best for dealing with the outbreak of a new virus.

"Eschew flamebait. Don't introduce flamewar topics unless you have something genuinely new to say. Avoid unrelated controversies and generic tangents."

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

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