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Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

nature.com

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Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Australia is burning every year. The main reason why it's burning so much right now is that not enough prescribed burns were done earlier in the season.

Although the following links focus on the recent, "It's all the greenies fault," rhetoric that has been sweeping through Facebook and other places the last couple of days, it does also provide information about hazard reduction burns from people who work in the field (AKA experts). https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/12/is-th... https://nitter.net/jagungal1/status/1212937426034782208

Another source:

https://www.smh.com.au/national/prescribed-burning-key-to-co...

''Fire captain Brian Williams, 73, vice-president of the Volunteer Fire Fighters Association, supports the prescribed burn argument. He spoke after a 12-hour night shift fighting the Three Mile fire burning north-east of Wiseman's Ferry.

Mr Williams said: "The hazard-approval process is what is stuffing the whole process.

"It is bogged down by green [environmental] and red tape which makes getting approval for a prescribed burn a very slow and complex process.

"They have introduced a system that makes it virtually impossible to manage the bush in a sustainable way. I am just one of thousands of volunteers out there who are frustrated."''

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I never said it's not possible. I'm asking how do we know how much we can effect it in the future if we're not entirely clear on how much we've affected it so far and how that effect has changed itself? Or do you already have an answer to the 2nd question you posed?

Just because you know how much effect you’ve had doesn’t mean you know how much control you have. They are related but the relationship is not clear. And only the second question matters.

To be clear, any forecast requires a model based on previous historical data. Otherwise it's not a forecast, it's just a random guess.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#143
post #138
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Might have not been the best example. Either way, the point being, trying to enforce environmentalism by force would probably annoy the majority of the population enough that your government wouldn't remain in power for very long.

The problem is that what is required to do will annoy everyone, no matter the angle. Withdrawal from abusive consumerism is going to be ugly, that's the issue, but it's necessary. A green dictatorship would signal that everyone is given equal treatment. It's also an emergency measure. Of course the word "dictatorship" has a very bad connotation here, because it implies oppression and violation of human rights, but th…

The issue isn't that drastic action is not/may not be necessary, it's that the vast majority of the population will not just 'give up on consumerism' for a perceived long term benefit, and any political attempt to make them will be met with a huge amount of backlash and instability.

If a political party or politician proposed what you're saying, they probably wouldn't get elected. If they tried it when in power, then the next party who gets elected would probably withdraw said restrictions. If they tried to 'turn off democracy' to do this, then people would get extremely angry, probably revolt and there would be a huge debacle. Especially given that worldwide, it'd be seen as an authoritarian coup in a democratic society, and responded to with economic sanctums, anger on the international stage and perhaps a war/support for overthrowing the government.

The problem isn't that such a dictatorship or authoritarian rule is necessarily against the long term interests of the population (though many authoritarian regimes (including China) would argue the same thing for their countries). It's that it's not democratic, not backed by most of the population and (perhaps rightly) seen as an alarming development in a country's history.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#144
post #128
post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I pretty much share all your views, here. My everlasting-optimism is only tempered by a somewhat keen awareness of that Fermi paradox thingy, a Darwinian observation that species just disappear and the world just keeps spinning. I think the greatest invincible filter — one we just couldn't overcome — is the idea of a fatal flaw in our genetic make-up, or relatingly in the evolution of our environment, that we simply…

I think the Fermi paradox is BS. we're stuck on this small planet, never having set foot on another planet, nevermind another solar system. we haven't even encountered a single, no matter how small, alien life. and yet we come up with these naive theories. this tells me we're simply not ready for the possibilities that await us out there. maybe in the future. and since you asked about the future, i want my "self" to…

Transforming the biological physical body into a biological 'pure information' 'energy-encoded' system (well, just software, but with incredibly specific rules) is one of my favorite ideas in SF. I tried to write a book including that 10 years ago, and while I'm a lazy fiction author, the thinking experiments were great.

I called this new species "energeans", functionally termed "Maxwell organisms" in a nod to the 19th century genius. Humans individuals become 'permanent, self-consistent' organized energy 'fields' of sorts (to preserve continuity, the sense of "self", as one's energy goes through machines (as electrons probably), space (as photons), etc.

It's totally whack physics as we speak outside some incredibly controlled lab, but it's fun to think about. :)

The Fermi paradox, I agree it's probably BS (but that's really just belief as we speak). I like to use it as a reminder of some "unknown known" (that we might not know, but others do), like

"civilization is possibly very, very hard";

or "we are so far away from big boys science that we grasp at space with tiny sticks like ants carry food, being silently observed by the equivalent of humans — so, so much above and beyond our very perception";

and my nagging favorite is a hypothesis that maybe, just maybe, what we think we "see" in space is really not what's actually out there — like Bohr's model of the atom with valency etc. was/is totally fine functionally (afaik we still do basic chemistry with it?), but not at all a "picture" of reality. Hence we'd be looking for caterpillars when all there is to see are butterflies — energeians? holo-trickery? nano-robotic swarms? blackhole farming? 5, 11, 23 dimensional space? And most being non-exclusive with others.

One thing seems sure to me: the most fundamental thing we might have right now is a quantum interpretation of Shannon's information theory, and going by that, there's a long way ahead of us until we reach "hard limits". It's crazy to think what this universe allows if you give it enough time and energy.

Here's to your last sentence being true. I must admit, I have confidence in the eventual resolution in a "decently near" future (~100 years at most), but I'm increasingly worried about the chaos/transition — if history is any indication, which it absolutely is imho, it's gonna cost too many lives and too much despair for too many people, whereas some will undoubtedly manage to turn the outcome to their advantage — even better off on the other side, like the "Great Heist of 1929", and it seems to me most majors periods of intense and prolonged chaos.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#145
post #143
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that what is required to do will annoy everyone, no matter the angle. Withdrawal from abusive consumerism is going to be ugly, that's the issue, but it's necessary. A green dictatorship would signal that everyone is given equal treatment. It's also an emergency measure. Of course the word "dictatorship" has a very bad connotation here, because it implies oppression and violation of human rights, but th…

The issue isn't that drastic action is not/may not be necessary, it's that the vast majority of the population will not just 'give up on consumerism' for a perceived long term benefit, and any political attempt to make them will be met with a huge amount of backlash and instability. If a political party or politician proposed what you're saying, they probably wouldn't get elected. If they tried it when in power, then…

It's not democratic, so what? It doesn't mean it's not necessary. Democracy doesn't always work for the public interest.

> seen as an alarming development in a country's history.

What do you mean? How would "an alarming development" be problematic? Democracy or not, action is required, and despite knowledge of the problem, I don't see any progress. I have nothing against democracy.

> and any political attempt to make them will be met with a huge amount of backlash and instability.

I think there is enough support for drastic measures, I don't think instability is a big risk. And if there is not enough support today, there will be more at each new heatwave and forest fire.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Australia is burning every year. The main reason why it's burning so much right now is that not enough prescribed burns were done earlier in the season.

The reason it’s burning so much now is it’s hotter and drier than before? I can’t imagine prescribed burns would’ve made it rain and stopped the temperature from reaching 48.9 in Sydney, can you ?

Prescribed burns reduce the amount of fuel available for wildfires, so logically the fires will be less severe if they are taken care of. It's an essential, if not the most essential part of wildfire prevention.
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