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The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

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Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#141

Post by benj111 »

m0zg wrote: post #44
kurthr wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, the RAV4 is on track to sell only 450k total this year, while plug in electrics are on track to sell 3.5M. http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/toyota/toyota-rav4... Tesla alone (S, X, 3) will probably sell close to 350k (~85-90k/q), and they are not more than 10% of total EV.

I meant in the US. In comparison all Tesla models sold 192K last year, for a marketshare of a whopping 1.1% (information is also from carsalesbase). It's funny that you're comparing US sales for Rav4 (just one of half a dozen popular Toyota models), with worldwide sales of electrics, and then extrapolate Tesla figures even though we're in the middle of the year. Out in the real world very few people can afford a $45k…

Your point about the Rav 4 sales being US only is reasonable. I've tried looking for global sales, I've been unsuccessful so far.

Apparently the biggest selling 'car' was the Ford F series, so not even one model and that sold just over a million.

https://www.motoringresearch.com/car-news/worlds-best-sellin...

Edit: Biggest selling in the world, in 2018

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#142

Post by Zigurd »

sjwright wrote: post #10

The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Electric cars are still deeply strangled by two key factors: industry inertia and the cost/supply of lithium batteries. Once those two factors are solved (and a build-up of lithium mines is key to that) electric cars will go from being a niche within a niche to utterly dominating the market very, very quickly. Within the next decade we might see companies like Hyundai…

Re " In my opinion Tesla needs to prepare to be in the budget space." There are entire large traditional car companies that build no, or very few, budget cars.

To make electric cars cheaply, it will take several changes, some of which look promising, but should not be underestimated for time and difficulty:

It will take widespread adoption of level 4 autonomy to make crashes rare

Scaled-down lightweight EVs will have to become available and accepted, especially w.r.t. safety

It will take finding the sweet spot for some markets: E.g. on-demand scooters, privately owned semi-enclosed trikes with light-enough removable battery packs for apartment dwellers, etc. Vehicles will need a "Cambrian explosion" of variety.

It will take regulatory changes to support the above

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#143

Post by Reason077 »

glogla wrote: post #139
neltnerb wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Although I agree, I was interested in the article about how poorly planned EV city owned equipment was a huge strain on the power grid that city planners didn't seem to understand how to do right. I look forward to what I expect to be the near future where cities start sharing best practices on this and collectively we do this right.

Depends on the location. In cities that have trams, metro and electric trains, the infrastructure shouldn't be that far out.

Taxis, city buses, UPS trucks, etc, all tend to be busy during the day. They get charged overnight, when grid demand is lower, and take advantage of low off-peak electricity prices.

The idea that these things place a “huge strain on the grid” as the poster above suggests just sounds like more made up FUD.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#144

Post by wongarsu »

cletus wrote: post #109
sjwright wrote: post #10

The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Electric cars are still deeply strangled by two key factors: industry inertia and the cost/supply of lithium batteries. Once those two factors are solved (and a build-up of lithium mines is key to that) electric cars will go from being a niche within a niche to utterly dominating the market very, very quickly. Within the next decade we might see companies like Hyundai…

What about the constraints of what the power grid can support in terms of mass EV rollout? What about the charging infrastructure itself? The first point in particular doesn't seem to get the attention it deserves. As an example some places (try to) ban crypto mining because the extra power load effectively makes power more expensive for everyone. The residential grid is built with a particular established demand for…

The power grid is built to handle peak demand. Residential charging is likely to peak at night, when domestic demand is at its lowest.

If natural charging patterns are not advantageous enough it's fairly straight forward to install smart meters that charge a different electricity price depending on time of day. The options range from simple off-peak pricing already offered in many places all the way up to live updating prices based on electricity spot prices and transmission capacity (this would also go a long way towards using solar and wind more efficiently).

The big problems are likely shops offering EV charging and industrial facilities with fairly constant power requirements charging trucks and heavy equipment. But those are comparatively easy to scale.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#145

Post by benj111 »

cletus wrote: post #109
sjwright wrote: post #10

The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Electric cars are still deeply strangled by two key factors: industry inertia and the cost/supply of lithium batteries. Once those two factors are solved (and a build-up of lithium mines is key to that) electric cars will go from being a niche within a niche to utterly dominating the market very, very quickly. Within the next decade we might see companies like Hyundai…

What about the constraints of what the power grid can support in terms of mass EV rollout? What about the charging infrastructure itself? The first point in particular doesn't seem to get the attention it deserves. As an example some places (try to) ban crypto mining because the extra power load effectively makes power more expensive for everyone. The residential grid is built with a particular established demand for…

It seems like EVs would add 25% to electricity demand.

The big question is how you deal with the peaks. Ideally all cars would be able to charge overnight, so you could potentially spread that demand over 12 hours or more.

https://www.engineering.com/ElectronicsDesign/ElectronicsDes...

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#146

Post by wongarsu »

bluGill wrote: post #106
sokoloff wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I realize it's only one anecdotal datapoint, but my 4.5 year old electric LEAF has literally never the dealership or any other mechanic since delivery and all I've had to do is charge it, add washer fluid, plug a tire leak, and change the wiper blades once. I think that a fleet of 10 electric cars owned over 10 years is likely to cost less than half in maintenance costs than a comparable fleet of 10 ICE cars over 10…

I disagree. The ICE car after 10 years will have seen less maintenance costs after 10 years. The electric car will have had the battery replaced, which will eat up all the cost of oil changes. Of course batteries are coming down in price. Time will tell how this plays out.

I think of battery replacements more as fuel cost than maintenance cost. But I guess that's debatable.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#147

Post by bryanrasmussen »

noonespecial wrote: post #117
bryanrasmussen wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yesterday I had a dollar in my pocket, today I have 2 dollars. Dollars in my pocket is booming right now. But relative to amount of dollars I have or that in the world, not so much. So I think other statistics would be more useful to determine quality of boom.

The question is whether you'll have $3 in your pocket tomorrow and $4 the next day or $4 tomorrow and $8 the next.

man if I had a dollar for every time I said If I had a dollar I'd never stop saying if I had a dollar.

If I had a dollar.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#148

Post by aurizon »

There is already a backing up of IC car production in the luxury car markets as large numbers of people are delaying the purchase of new IC based cars in anticipation of a new EV supplanting it based on lower running costs, lower maintenance costs et al. In addition, these longevity factors are making EV buyers move up-market. This has gutted Mercedes and BMW sales, among others. https://electrek.co/2019/07/24/tesla-model-3-outsellin-gas-p...

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#149

Post by duckymcduckface »

eigenvalue wrote: post #137
mabbo wrote: post #133

This seems like a bit of hype over very little. Look at the graph in the article. Lithium cost $5000/ton 4 years ago. Now it costs more than $11,000/ton. The only difference is the period in between where the price of lithium was almost $21,000/ton. Presumably the mines operation 4 years ago were profitable. Now there's all these additional mines, and demand still has the price doubled in 4 years. And yet somehow the…

Note that this is the spot price of lithium, which no large consumer of lithium pays. All the big users of lithium (like Panasonic) buy it based on long term contracts with companies like Albemarle (which bought Rockwood Lithium just before the recent boom). Thus it's very misleading to look at spot prices for reaching any determinations about the prospective returns from lithium mine investments.

Fun fact, there is no spot market for lithium. Lithium is sold on a contract by contract basis and there isn't an equivalent of the London Metal Exchange price.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#150

Post by Reason077 »

bluGill wrote: post #106
sokoloff wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I realize it's only one anecdotal datapoint, but my 4.5 year old electric LEAF has literally never the dealership or any other mechanic since delivery and all I've had to do is charge it, add washer fluid, plug a tire leak, and change the wiper blades once. I think that a fleet of 10 electric cars owned over 10 years is likely to cost less than half in maintenance costs than a comparable fleet of 10 ICE cars over 10…

I disagree. The ICE car after 10 years will have seen less maintenance costs after 10 years. The electric car will have had the battery replaced, which will eat up all the cost of oil changes. Of course batteries are coming down in price. Time will tell how this plays out.

EV batteries should last much longer than 10 years. Ideally, they should last the lifetime of the vehicle.

Most manufacturers, including Tesla, provide an 8 year warranty on battery and drivetrain.

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