Live data from Hacker News

Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

venturebeat.com

141–150 of 181 posts

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#141
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t remember insulting anyone. And how is that not true?

Geoff Hinton is the grandfather of deep learning. Virtually all the modern advancements in AI can be traced back to him and his lab. What is your track record in AI? It sounds like you have no technical knowledge of AI. For example do you understand the concept of cross entropy loss?

Yes, the grandfather of deep learning. This is exactly my point. All the modern advancements in ai have nothing to do with agi.

And by the way I happen to know about both of the subjects of the article.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#142
post #83
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand this fixation on symbolic reasoning. Do any other animals practice this? If the answer is no, then it is probably not the most important milestone to AGI or at least not the one we should be currently aiming for. Right now we can not replicate the cognition of a mouse. Feels like we want to go to Mars before figuring out how to build a rocket.

I think the the fixation on symbolic reasoning comes from ignorance at how hard classification is vs how hard pure mechanical symbolic operations are for humans. It's easy to make the mistake of thinking that since a computer can rapidly multiply two numbers together (hard for humans) that they were operating at a higher level than human brains. Turns out this is wrong. Human brains are very efficient.

> Human brains are very efficient.

At some things, not all.

Subsymbolic systems, such as ANN are clearly good at some things and symbolic systems are better at others.

It is argued that symbolic reasoning is required for what we might call higher levels of intelligence (lets assume this is correct).

Symbolic systems have struggled in the realms of grounding a symbol to something in the physical world, because its messy and complex, i.e. the area where subsymbolic systems play best.

If we assume that ANN are approximately akin to natural brains, then can we take that they are examples of a subsymbolic system able to, with the correct architecture, produce (perhaps the wrong word) a symbolic resoning system?

Perhaps this emergence ontop of the subsymbolic processing is what humans (and others to varying degrees) possess. Perhaps in the past (GOFAI) suffered because it was going top down, or not even going down to subsymbolic to ground the symbols.

Perhaps ANN struggles because its not going up to symbolic reasoning.

Then also perhaps ANN (or organic brains), which evolved where reaction/perception give the critical survival advantage, then only much later did symbolic become possible and beneficial, however wit hardware that wasnt necessarily developed for that in most efficient way.

Being of the belief that ANN are sufficient for AGI (for 20+ years), and possibly offer an elegant solution, I currently think that they are at this time, not the most efficient (nor plausible with the current compute/hardware, or for many years (probably my lifetime)). Practical progress imho is likely in hybridisation of ANN and Logic (however I'm not referring to hand baked rules), and even propose a mixed hardware might even supersede a pure ANN or what evolution has provided in the brain.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#143
post #121
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even anti-alarmists don’t ask for proof that AGI is possible. Obviously it is possible. Speculation is the best you get because nobody is going to be able to prove anything. We haven’t proven global warming is caused by humans but it’s still worth it to be proactive about greenhouse gasses. This is because when something is extremely dangerous, you don’t wait around for someone to finish proving it beyond any shadow…

I ask for proof that AGI is possible. Show me a computer as smart as a lab mouse and then I'll take your concerns seriously. The analogy to anthropomorphic global climate change is a non sequitur. Climatologists have created falsifiable theories which make testable predictions. And you really have no clue about my personal religious beliefs. Calm down and take a seat.

I never said anything about your religious beliefs, only that your need for hard proof one way or the other is similar to the need displayed by people who want to believe in god and who dont want to believe in global warming. there are many such examples but the bottom line is that demanding me to show you a sentient computer right now is not reasonable. We have the ability to reason about things without developing formal, mathematic proof about it. And in this case, there is no possibility that anyone could ever prove that AI is possible or impossible. Nobody can prove what it will do. If accept nothing less than hard proof then you are opting out of survival in basically any situation whatsoever. Sometimes logical reasoning is all you have and this is a case of that.

Yeah and before the measurements were done, before enough time had elapsed for meaningful change to be measured, all there was was people like me screaming at people like you, trying to make you see. When ai comes you’ll have your proof but it will be too late.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#144
post #138

https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Incorrect_predictions "Hence, if it requires, say, a thousand years to fit for easy flight a bird which started with rudimentary wings, or ten thousand for one which started with no wings at all and had to sprout them ab initio, it might be assumed that the flying machine which will really fly might be evolved by the combined and continuous efforts of mathematicians and mechanicians in f…

The arguments like above are "platitude level arguments". We really don't learn anything from the problem in had by talking in generic terms. We use these arguments when we want to justify our hopes and feeling, but there is really nothing to learn from it. Hinton, Hassabis, Bengio and others point out that we can't 'brute force' AI development. There needs to be actual breakthroughs in the field and there may be sev…

> AI, brain science and cognitive science are extremely difficult fields with small advances, yet people assume that it's possible to 'brute force' AGI by just adding more computing power and doing more of the same.

Do people assume that? I mean, I'm sure some people do, but I don't think I've encountered many people, at least not in the AI safety movement, that actually think it's a matter of more hardware power. Some people think it's possible that that's all that's necessary, but I don't think most will say that that's the most likely path to AGI (rather than, as you say, actual breakthroughs happening).

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#145
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cada vez que intento usar un sitio de traducción para traducir más de un párrafo (Facebook o Google), sale un lío confuso - no significa que algunas oraciones sean aparentemente claras y significativas. Lo importante es que se atraganta con los modismos, no entendiéndolos, no dejándolos como están, sino adivinando algún significado claramente erróneo. Ocasionalmente encuentro que las publicaciones de una sola oración…

Oh, that just means I happen to write in clear, unidiomatic English ;-). Add just a smidgen of irregular usage, contemporary metaphors and such and things can go South pretty quickly.

I've seen the evolution of translators and there is a big difference in results. We can try more convoluted examples.

Also do you think that every human can parse that contemporary metaphors better?

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#146
post #9

I wonder to what extent the data being fed to these models are the issue. Or rather the problem is the systems that generate these data-sets and how representative of reality they are. If we make an app that involves humans and that data is used in a model - to what extent does user experience and other factors warp reality? Maybe our existing methods are good enough given enough compute to reach AGI but our datasets…

The problem is not the data. The problem is the need for high quality data. Current ML is data driven statistical learning. ML tries to learn a model that describes the distribution. It's impossible to get similar performance as the best reference implementation (human brain) using this approach. https://i.redd.it/kvvgv6zzhtp11.png Think of 16 year old human: * it has received less than 400 million wakeful seconds of…

This pickpocket example seems like symbolic? relations reasoning.

I think we need simulation of other agents outputs as primary tool for reasoning. That seems to be how intelligence emerged in evolution.

Something like this: choose desired action > simulate other agents outputs based on future state after performing action > check reward for this action after simulating outputs of others > perform action or not > update all agents models and relations in "world" graph model

I think world could be modeled as simple graph and each agent as NN.

Then based on graph we could conduct symbolic reasoning and very fast learning (by updating edges)

I think these models need also need good physical simulator and good understanding of competitivness.

Is anyone aware of such trials of building AGI as I described?

Humans have natural language as big competetive adventage (easy way to compress parts of world graph and pass it to others - ambiguous. I think with aftificial machiness can be done more efficient). Another advantage is knowledge storage - also easy to do with machiness.

If we can build insect AI building human AI should be easy.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#147

I don't believe in the idea of AGI for Dreyfusard reasons, but it's possible that it could emerge from something completely different than deep learning. For all we know, Isabelle and Coq could be speeding through the road to consciousness but we're busy having a blast doing Computer Vision pretending it's AI.

I'm used to random downvotes for comments about current controversies - I'll say things about income inequality that people won't like, and it's okay, you have your politics. Deep learning shouldn't be part of your politics, it either does stuff or doesn't.

Deep Learning is amazeballs for Computer Vision. It's fun because people like looking at pictures. But sufficiently prodded Isabelle proves theorems, I've seen it first hand, and the "sufficient prodding" is way underdeveloped yet. At one point backpropagation was dead too.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#148

https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Incorrect_predictions "Hence, if it requires, say, a thousand years to fit for easy flight a bird which started with rudimentary wings, or ten thousand for one which started with no wings at all and had to sprout them ab initio, it might be assumed that the flying machine which will really fly might be evolved by the combined and continuous efforts of mathematicians and mechanicians in f…

For flight, the components necessary were obvious very early on: you need some kind of structure to hold you aloft and some kind of powered apparatus to propel you forwards. Once those were found, mechanical flight was achieved (and unpowered flight was already possible long before that).

What are the components of intelligence? For example, AlphaZero can solve problems that are hard for humans to solve in the domain of chess, shogi and go- is it intelligent? Is its problem-solving ability, limited as it is to the domain of three board games, a necessary component of general intelligence? Have we even made any tiny baby steps on the road to AGI, with the advances of the last few years, or are we merely chasing our tails in a dead end of statistical approximation that will never sufficiently, well, approximate, true intelligence?

These are very hard questions to answer and the most conservative answers suggest that AGI will not happen in a short time, as a sudden growth spurt that takes us from no-AGI to AGI. With flight, it sufficed to blow up a big balloon with hot air and- tadaaaa! Flight. There really seems to be no such one neat trick for AGI. It will most likely be tiny baby steps all the way up.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#149
post #144
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The arguments like above are "platitude level arguments". We really don't learn anything from the problem in had by talking in generic terms. We use these arguments when we want to justify our hopes and feeling, but there is really nothing to learn from it. Hinton, Hassabis, Bengio and others point out that we can't 'brute force' AI development. There needs to be actual breakthroughs in the field and there may be sev…

> AI, brain science and cognitive science are extremely difficult fields with small advances, yet people assume that it's possible to 'brute force' AGI by just adding more computing power and doing more of the same. Do people assume that? I mean, I'm sure some people do, but I don't think I've encountered many people, at least not in the AI safety movement, that actually think it's a matter of more hardware power. So…

That's pretty much the Singularity conjecture in a nutshell: that exponential advances in computing power will drive an exponential increase in machine intelligence.

It gets more nuanced than that but there are actually very specialised people who argue very forcefully that AGI is a hair's breadth away and we must act now to protect ourselves from it.

Edit: so not "most" people but definitely some very high-profile people. Although granted, they're high-profile exactly because they keep saying those things.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is not the data. The problem is the need for high quality data. Current ML is data driven statistical learning. ML tries to learn a model that describes the distribution. It's impossible to get similar performance as the best reference implementation (human brain) using this approach. https://i.redd.it/kvvgv6zzhtp11.png Think of 16 year old human: * it has received less than 400 million wakeful seconds of…

This pickpocket example seems like symbolic? relations reasoning. I think we need simulation of other agents outputs as primary tool for reasoning. That seems to be how intelligence emerged in evolution. Something like this: choose desired action > simulate other agents outputs based on future state after performing action > check reward for this action after simulating outputs of others > perform action or not > upd…

I also think it would be great if we could just do "world_model = fold(books)" instead of simulation.

Is anyone aware of such efforts/results?

Post reply on HN