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Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

columbia.edu

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Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#141

Post by randyrand »

PhasmaFelis wrote: post #140
randyrand wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Moving to better cities does not require intervention. People will do it naturally over time.

Are you now claiming that climate change isn't a big deal because the billions of people whose homes are flooded, or too hot to survive, or otherwise uninhabitable can just...go somewhere else? In today's world, we see (much smaller) groups of people trying to relocate as their homes become intolerably dangerous. The press calls it "the refugee crisis" and it's causing massive tension all over the world. What do you…

Yes. That’s pretty much what I said in my first comment.

It’s not a huge deal. It’s a moderate deal.

Moving cities is not a huge deal. I’ve personally done it 3 times. It’s not a small deal either, don’t get me wrong. But it’s not a mayday scenario.

Even my ancestors who made 1/100th the income I do moved multiple times.

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#142

Post by randyrand »

avmich wrote: post #135
randyrand wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can you even say that? Climate science has uncertainty. There are definitely still things being debated.

Everything has uncertainty, even the reality of the world. We usually don't debate things which are "certain enough".

Not ever detail of climate change is certain. Some details are still up to speculation.

The big picture seems pretty certain tho

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#143

Post by Comevius »

yters wrote: post #127
Comevius wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a good thing that theories are superseeded, as they are supposed to be testable and falsifiable. Our understanding of climate change is being superseeded literally on a daily basis. That's what the ~97% represents. It's like Newtonian physics. The people who say that climate change is a hoax either don't follow the scientific method or make predictions that are being falsified over and over by the ~97%. It's not…

It'd be pretty interesting to see a comprehensive view of the falsifiable claims made and what the results are. In fact, a completely open data source and algorithm repository with full documentation on how all data is gathered and processed would certainly help persuade skeptics like myself. A number of years ago when the engineer leaked the internal data dump from the climate researchers, it certainly did not chang…

Are you refering to the two email leaks from the University of East Anglia (Climategate), the one in 2009 and the 2011 one to Russian servers?

There was no scientific misconduct there, only climate denialists taking messages out of context. Even then you have to be a conspiracy theorist to see anything into it.

I don't think anyone ever stashed (or could stash) a whole century of research into a single Github repository, but around 95% of what you seek is out there.

For the data source I would start with the Global Historical Climatology Network (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ghcnd-data-access).

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#144

Post by Oletros »

randyrand wrote: post #112
mr_overalls wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have no reason to believe this. From: https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a25422366/trump-ambass... "The fourth and latest National Climate Assessment put together by 300 scientists from 13 agencies of the U.S. government and released last month found that climate change is real, man-made, and will cost the U.S. 10 percent of its economy by 2100. Midwestern farmers will lose 75 percent of their crop yields, and…

"Midwestern farmers will lose 75 percent of their crop yields" and other farmers will benefit and have increased yeilds. I don't mind facts. But misleading ones I do mind.

Misleading?

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#145

Post by Oletros »

jjoonathan wrote: post #79
randyrand wrote: post #51

I've long been in the camp that we worry about climate change more than makes rational sense. I'm not saying we should ignore it, but we often overstate. It's worth remembering that the effects on QoL will be completely eclipsed by technological progress within that period and that the timescales that GW happen over (50+ years) are long enough that most people will hardly ever notice it. Gradual relocation will be ou…

Yesterday's false cry of "Wolf!" is the worst enemy of action today. Will today's cry of "Wolf!" inhibit action tomorrow? It pays to be correct -- and hurts to be incorrect. FWIW I'm convinced that it's serious this time, but history abounds with examples of breathless malthusian doomsday predictions that failed to pass.

When has happened"cry wolf"?

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#146

Post by Oletros »

randyrand wrote: post #141
PhasmaFelis wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you now claiming that climate change isn't a big deal because the billions of people whose homes are flooded, or too hot to survive, or otherwise uninhabitable can just...go somewhere else? In today's world, we see (much smaller) groups of people trying to relocate as their homes become intolerably dangerous. The press calls it "the refugee crisis" and it's causing massive tension all over the world. What do you…

Yes. That’s pretty much what I said in my first comment. It’s not a huge deal. It’s a moderate deal. Moving cities is not a huge deal. I’ve personally done it 3 times. It’s not a small deal either, don’t get me wrong. But it’s not a mayday scenario. Even my ancestors who made 1/100th the income I do moved multiple times.

You really dontgey what the problem is.

And no, it has nothing to do with income

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#147

Post by yters »

Comevius wrote: post #143
yters wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It'd be pretty interesting to see a comprehensive view of the falsifiable claims made and what the results are. In fact, a completely open data source and algorithm repository with full documentation on how all data is gathered and processed would certainly help persuade skeptics like myself. A number of years ago when the engineer leaked the internal data dump from the climate researchers, it certainly did not chang…

Are you refering to the two email leaks from the University of East Anglia (Climategate), the one in 2009 and the 2011 one to Russian servers? There was no scientific misconduct there, only climate denialists taking messages out of context. Even then you have to be a conspiracy theorist to see anything into it. I don't think anyone ever stashed (or could stash) a whole century of research into a single Github reposit…

Yes, the 2009 leak. Did you look through the material yourself?

And if this is such an important issue, and so many people remain to be convinced, wouldn't it behoove researchers to make their research as transparent, clear and reproducible as possible? Seems that can only help the debate move forward in a productive manner.

UPDATE: I followed your link, and things that stand out to me:

- Images showing station concentration shows only in fairly recent history that stations are global. Before then they're mostly concentrated in the US and Europe, and the station data only goes back to the mid 1800s, and is pretty sparse up until the last few decades. It is unclear how such sparse temperature data can give us a clear understanding of how world temperatures have changed over the past few centuries due to industrialization.

- The unfiltered 'all' category is not easily accessible. I'd either have to download a whopping 2.9G tar, or visit the directory that does not seem to load very quickly. I'm thinking it is just a flat dump of the files without hierarchical organization, so FTP tries to fetch everything.

- The accessible 'yearly' category readme.txt states the data is not raw, but 'merged together' and subjected to 'quality assurance review' just like the monthly counterpart, which I assume is the 'all' category. So, even if I did download the 2.9G tar, I cannot get the raw readings from the ground stations.

This is the sort of lack of clarity and transparency that does not improve the skeptic's perception on the matter.

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#148

Post by PhasmaFelis »

randyrand wrote: post #141
PhasmaFelis wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you now claiming that climate change isn't a big deal because the billions of people whose homes are flooded, or too hot to survive, or otherwise uninhabitable can just...go somewhere else? In today's world, we see (much smaller) groups of people trying to relocate as their homes become intolerably dangerous. The press calls it "the refugee crisis" and it's causing massive tension all over the world. What do you…

Yes. That’s pretty much what I said in my first comment. It’s not a huge deal. It’s a moderate deal. Moving cities is not a huge deal. I’ve personally done it 3 times. It’s not a small deal either, don’t get me wrong. But it’s not a mayday scenario. Even my ancestors who made 1/100th the income I do moved multiple times.

You don't see the difference between you trying to find a new place to live, and you plus 100 million other people trying to find a new place to live all at the same time? I'm starting to think you're just trolling.

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#149

Post by apo »

Comevius wrote: post #104
apo wrote: post #63

The problem with many discussions around global warming is not scientific, but cultural. Advocates of change often take a sanctimonious attitude toward anyone expressing the slightest doubt. Have a look at the episodes of the Netflix series "Bill Nye Saves the World" on climate change. If you can watch without cringing, congratulations. I can't. Or take this interview Nye did with Tucker Carlsen: https://www.youtube.…

Challenge accepted. Proof that humans are responsible for rising planet temperatures: https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ . Follow the references. "every hypothesis should be questioned." It is, constantly, literally on a daily basis. That's how we know. What does pop culture (Bill Nye) has anything to do with this. Also many of us are a bit beyond just theoretical discussions. It's 2018. We are increasingly affected…

Thanks for the link and response, but I was talking about evidence in the OP article. Like far too many pieces, it fails to highlight the evidence between human activity and rising temps, taking it instead as an article of faith.

Even the link you gave fails to enumerate the evidence for a human cause, and itself links to another article.

I realize that some have made up their minds, but the extraordinary claim of a mainly human cause requires extraordinary evidence. And that evidence is hardly discussed, nor are alternative hypotheses given their due.

This is the problem I'm trying to highlight. The discussion has veered from scientific to religious.

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