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Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

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Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#141

Post by mikeash »

IshKebab wrote: post #115
tboyd47 wrote: post #95

Our world looks similar to 1914 in a lot of ways, but it looks different in a lot of ways too. 1) Mutually assured destruction. 2) No major empires dissolving. 3) Global news keeps everyone on the same page as crises unfold. 4) World powers separated by vast seas, neutral countries, and demilitarized zones. 5) The UN exists (not always effective, but at least it's there). 6) Less chauvinism. Kaiser Wilhelm II makes T…

> Global news keeps everyone on the same page as crises unfold Have you watched Russian news? Or Fox? > World powers separated by vast seas, neutral countries, and demilitarized zones. That's just not true. Where was the demilitarized zone or neutral country between Ukraine and Russia? > Less chauvinism. Kaiser Wilhelm II makes Trump look diplomatic and cordial in comparison. I somewhat doubt that. Again, you've hear…

Ukraine is not a world power, but rather one of those neutral countries separating the world powers.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#142

Post by vharuck »

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #30
sehugg wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The U.S. and Russia have been signaling to each other recently that they would be willing to deploy low-yield nukes in a limited regional engagement. Anyway, MAD has very nearly failed on several occasions -- Cuban Missile Crisis, false alarms, etc.

The Cuban missile crisis is an example of MAD working as intended. If it weren't for the threat of nuclear war the Cuban missile crisis would have turned into the "Russian tanks in Paris and Marines in Havana crisis"

We came really close to war between two nuclear powers at the Cuban blockade[0]. A Russian submarine didn't torpedo a US ship only because 1 of 3 officers on the sub voted against it.

Rising nationalism and games of "chicken" don't mix well.

[0]: https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a23074/cuban-missi...

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#143

Post by pvaldes »

lozaning wrote: post #78
us-throw1 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you really sure that the US is undisputed in those 4 categories? A list of obvious weaknesses: * The US economy and industrial power is dependent on IT and brittle supply chains. Nobody knows how much the cyber infrastructure holding this up is already compromised. * Russian S-400s can already deny air superiority to Israeli planes, which are not far behind US planes. * How does the US have space superiority when…

You know what is absolutely undisputed though? America's love for guns. There are 120 guns in the US for every 100 people. American civilians own 393 million guns, both legally and otherwise, out of a worldwide total of 857 million firearms [1]. Good luck occupying that. Also, FWIW under every circumstance that isn't some kind of military invasion phantasy porn I generally look less positively on our relationship wit…

> Good luck occupying that.

The problem is that, even with 393 millions of guns, USA can't stop recurrent fireforests year after year. And this is only an example. Would be naive to think that, as people have a pistol, can't be killed remotely from a million Km of distance. The idea of a foreign army marching in a country and killing people one by one like stormtroopers, is very outdated.

And of course you can always distroy critical areas and then sit and look how the civilians start killing other civilians for water or food. With so many weapons in the table would be even much faster. Is hardly a guarantee.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#144

Post by mynameishere »

kiliancs wrote: post #93
thereare5lights wrote: post #72

Nationalism. This has been rising up like a plague in recent years and it isn't going away any time soon. When ego and emotion come into play, the question of what is the point because a matter of pride and the point is just to win regardless of the costs.

Not only nationalism. Current conflicts are rooted in the same prejudices as a hundred years ago. The root cause (this idea that somehow my nation/religion/race/etc is superior) hasn't been resolved, only more or less patched, and thus these conflicts are bound to reappear and escalate sooner or later until we recognize that that despite the valuable diversity humanity is essentially one and align the political and e…

somehow my nation/religion/race/etc is superior

"Somehow". The answer is found quite simply by this formula:

"My [whatever] is the [whatever] I belong to."

Even if you prove without a doubt that Islam is worse that Christianity, or that one race is worse than another, you won't likely convince the members that they therefore deserve less than they have, or that they should surrender to another. The core tautology still holds true.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#145

Post by mikeash »

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #30
sehugg wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The U.S. and Russia have been signaling to each other recently that they would be willing to deploy low-yield nukes in a limited regional engagement. Anyway, MAD has very nearly failed on several occasions -- Cuban Missile Crisis, false alarms, etc.

The Cuban missile crisis is an example of MAD working as intended. If it weren't for the threat of nuclear war the Cuban missile crisis would have turned into the "Russian tanks in Paris and Marines in Havana crisis"

There wasn’t MAD during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The US had the ability to completely destroy the USSR but the reverse was not true, which is why they wanted to put missiles in Cuba in the first place.

If a war had occurred, the US would have suffered enormously, but it would have come out of the conflict largely intact. Think the “get our hair mussed” bit from Dr. Strangelove.

The Crisis just shows that war can be avoided even when one side has a huge advantage, if neither side really wants it.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#146

Post by MR4D »

jeffdavis wrote: post #29

What's the point of war in the modern world? Gain land/people? If there's a thriving economy there, war will probably change that quickly. If there's no thriving economy, what's the point? You could try to exploit the people/resources there, but the profits in that seem (at least compared to a world power) pretty thin. Unskilled labor and unimproved land are just not worth what they used to be. Specific resources mig…

Power.

Always has been, always will be.

People either want more power or are concerned about losing it. Either way, the cause of war is always power.

I consider “fear” to be about power too, as it’s usually about fear of losing power of some sort. WWI is probably the best example.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#147

Post by merpnderp »

eezurr wrote: post #120
jbattle wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This book was hugely influential in the years just before WW1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Illusion Premise: the large nations of the world are far to intertwined by commerce and culture. Large scale war would be suicidal and the leadership of these countries would never do something so foolish.

The book was right about it being suicidal, but before ww1 did we have any evidence for this?

The US Civil War was pretty epic in its destruction.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#148

Post by tomohawk »

The thing about war is that at some point, the conditions line up where it becomes seen as a solution (if not the only solution), and its not easy to see the point at which that will occur ahead of time.

Will China's big sea grab start a war? So far, they've been able to smother any of their neighbor's push back, and have just ignored any international rulings against them.

What about when they invade Taiwan, which they've said they will do? What about when they take over some of Japan's islands, which they said they would do?

They seem to be going down this path where they think if they just push a calculated amount each time, it won't cause a big problem. It's exactly that kind of thinking that is the problem, though.

And China's not the only aggressive, belligerent country out there. There's also Russia (Crimea/Ukraine, Syria) and Iran (Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon), for example. At what point do their aggressions spill over into a larger conflict?

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#149

Post by Havoc »

I subscribe to (Einstein's?) WW4 will be fought with sticks & stones sentiment.

The world is way beyond what can be survived in terms of flat out war.

It's not really something I worry about. People just want to eat McD and earn a high salary. Nobody in the powerful nations is eager to get shot (well US military complex aside).

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#150

Post by flukus »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #86
lozaning wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know what is absolutely undisputed though? America's love for guns. There are 120 guns in the US for every 100 people. American civilians own 393 million guns, both legally and otherwise, out of a worldwide total of 857 million firearms [1]. Good luck occupying that. Also, FWIW under every circumstance that isn't some kind of military invasion phantasy porn I generally look less positively on our relationship wit…

Yeah. Recently I realized that alien invasion/zombie outbreak movies couldn't possibly have different setting than United States, because no other country on Earth has enough firearms just lying around for survivors to mount an armed defense against the invaders.

28 Days/Weeks/Months is a good zombie series set in the UK, it was mostly the military doing the fighting. I never could understand how zombies in the walking dead managed to overrun the US military and all their bases, many in the middle of the desert or other hard to reach places.

When it comes to zombie attacks pointy sticks seem pretty effective anyway.

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