Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030 • Hacker News Board

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#141

Post by alkonaut » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 4:54 PM UTC

Annatar wrote: post #77

Good luck with that, especially with banning ultramodern, low emission, high performance diesel cars. I was in Denmark last year to see what's going on over there and I observed the infrastructure very carefully: there is no widespread electric infrastructure for cars; it will be a gargantuan investment of epic proportions. Even if the infrastructure is put in, the current battery technology is only barely adequate f…

The last gen diesels are about to be banned (e.g Stockholm and other cities eg in Germany). I expect Euro6 diesels to follow within 10 years and the number of cities with bans to grow.

Charging infrastructure needs to be expanded everywhere but that needs to happen regardless. The need will just be more acute. Also note most in Europe have 230V at home including a lot of places in the Nordic countries that have 230V at every parking space for multi tenant housing for car heaters. Those are very handy for an EV parked overnight.

The holiday issue is a real one. I drive a diesel that does 1000km in one go. I use that range in one day maybe 2-3 days per year during holidays. That would be impossible with an EV. I can get where I want but it would require a lot more planning and longer travels and recharge waits.

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#142

Post by linuxftw » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 4:54 PM UTC

PopeDotNinja wrote: post #26

I went to Denmark last year and spent two weeks driving all over the countryside, and likely would have been difficult to reach with an electric car. Many of the places I visited would not have been accessible via public transit. I'm curious how future generations will reach remote places as we move away from fossil fuels. BTW, I loved Denmark :)

> I'm curious how future generations will reach remote places as we move away from fossil fuels.

They won't. Corporations will own the land, you'll be allowed to visit designated 'wilderness areas' on a lottery system, transported by public transit. Perhaps really remote destinations are only open to those with lots of merit points.

Most people will be forced into city dwellings, high density housing, reminiscent of soviet apartments, albeit the housing will most likely be more aesthetically pleasing. There won't be anyone to visit in the country side.

You might be allowed to rent a community bicycle and perhaps bike to far off destinations. They'll likely be in disrepair and you probably won't be able to use them past a certain location.

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#143

Post by EpicEng » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 4:57 PM UTC

jstanley wrote: post #16

reacharavindh wrote: post #13

Wonder what it'd do to the resale value of cars even before 2030. Denmark with their famous 150% registration tax already has cars being used much longer than what I've seen in other countries. I'd love to see the 150% tax waived off for 100% electric cars that are not luxury vehicles. Set strict constraints for a common man car, and incentivize it turning electric. Also, think about the charging infrastructure....

Why does it make any difference whether it is a luxury vehicle or not?

If you want to tax the crap out of vehicles (like Denmark) then it makes sense to give some relief to people who just need to get around as opposed to people who can afford a 50k+ car.

I suppose.

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#144

Post by simias » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 4:58 PM UTC

abakker wrote: post #137

meguest wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a shame because there are some remarkable cars, both modern and classic, that will no longer be able to drive on the roads if we ban all ICE. It would be the equivalent of banning steam engines, which although no longer in normal use, are still running as tourist attractions and remarkable pieces of engineering that are fantastic to see and experience.

I think this policy would ban new sales, not outright ban all old cars.

Both policies exist actually. For instance old cars and motorcycles are getting banned in Paris (outside of weekends IIRC). Even if as the grandparent points out making a new car generates a lot of pollution at least it would reduce the more local problem of having a heavy smog on windless days (and all the health issues that go along with it).

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#145

Post by martin_bech » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 4:59 PM UTC

kalms wrote: post #105

daveFNbuck wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the current tax on a base Tesla Model S?

20% I believe https://www.tesla.com/da_DK/support/incentives (Danish)

Yes but thats 20% of the 150% so more like 30%.

As the system is now, it will be 40% of the 150% by january.

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#146

Post by meguest » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 4:59 PM UTC

gambiting wrote: post #3

As great as it is, remember that hybrids are exempt. And the law is very lax when it comes to a definition of a hybrid - Range Rover has a model with a whooping 1 mile(!!!) of electric range, but of course it has an electric motor so it qualifies as a hybrid and could still be sold under this ban. I expect very very soon we'll see this kind of extremely minor electrification coming to all kinds of vehicles, where a t…

Car manufacturers are now looking at using 48v powered turbochargers to eliminate turbo lag. I wonder if that could be seen as an electrification of the powertrain?

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#147

Post by toomuchtodo » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 4:59 PM UTC

jillesvangurp wrote: post #107

toomuchtodo wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this not enough charging stations? https://i.imgur.com/dd9Jdzf.png (Orange are high power chargers, green are lower power chargers, source is plugshare.com)

And that's not counting people's own charging points at home. Most people will rarely need a public one as they can probably do several of their daily commutes on a single charge.

Indeed. Not only do I charge at home primarily, I installed two public chargers out on my large driveway for additional EV charging in the event my nearby Supercharger is full (my chargers are ClipperCreek, are EV agnostic, and advertised on PlugShare).

My employer installed several stations as well at my request when Tesla was still offering equipment for free (equal parts Tesla specific chargers and generic EV chargers), which I plug into when at the office, but only to stay topped up while my vehicle actively keeps itself cool in the Florida sun.

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#148

Post by anticensor » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 4:59 PM UTC

vegardx wrote: post #75

gambiting wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I explained elsewhere - hybrids are exempt. And all current manufacturers can make all of their models into some extremely mild hybrids just to get around the ban. So expect to see a lot of models with 1bhp electric motors just to classify as hybrids coming out soon. And cars made before the ban will obviously be still allowed, so there's no issues there.

I doubt it. This is already a solved problem. We have emission standards that makes those designs more or less pointless.

Yes, by the time Euro 7 is out, no one will make highway-rated petrol engines that small.

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#149

Post by bluGill » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 5:00 PM UTC

daveFNbuck wrote: post #90

bluGill wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To play devils advocate: electric cars are a niche, Sure Tesla can sell out. The niche is large enough - for more players, but ultimately electric cars will top out at a small fraction of the total vehicle market. Of course this is predicting the future. Nobody does that well. In a few years we will have facts, but that doesn't say much about the future beyond that.

That's the future that governments are trying to avoid by subsidizing electric cars and/or restricting gasoline-powered cars.

There are some disadvantages of electric cars which may or may not be solvable.

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#150

Post by yholio » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 5:05 PM UTC

netcan wrote: post #65

At the start, I thought these announcements and laws (eg Scotland) to ban ICE vehicles by 20XX were cheap politics. A promise Someone Else will deliver later, with credit due to you now. I've come around though. I think all the bastardized carbon accounting, market based solutions are on average quite bad. The idea of a neutral, "market decides" policy is a myth. These things are complex, and that compmexity is an op…

> I've come around though. I think all the bastardized carbon accounting, market based solutions are on average quite bad.

Carbon taxing works well when it's applied - but it's very hard to create the political consensus to impose it. For example, the high cost of fuel in Europe has driven cars to an average MPG equivalent of 45 versus the average of 33 in US. That's nothing to sneeze at, it's 40% more for a given amount of CO2 - and that's after the continous fuel efficiency improvements happening on both sides in recent decades: https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/files/2012/0...

However, the EU fuel taxes are not actually carbon taxes, they are road taxes. Imposing the same tax on industry and power generation, as pure carbon taxes, would have immense political blow back.

So I really wonder how do you think "ban all non-renewable electric stations and cement factories" would work if we can't even accept a 3-10% price increase on these products?