I find this line of logic tempting, but this seems to not apply to my scenario at all- hear me out.
Major: ECE
Job: Software Engineer
Debt: Some private variable rate, some public fixed rate. The highest private loans were originally around 100bp higher than my public, and eventually jumped to a 300bp gap, but by that point I had paid them off so it didn't impact me.
Credit rating: Pretty high- no missed payments, multi-year-old account, has multiple lines of credit.
All of my re-fi offers, for the most part, have advertised lower interest rates than my private loans and the lower bound of their advertised rate was slightly less (50-100 bp) than my public loans. However, when I'd start going through the process my offered interest rate would end up around the median of the rate window they were offering, and refinancing would have been a wash.
This meant refinancing only would have made sense for my private loans, not public. By the time I had seen these offers, it didn't make sense for me to refinance because by that point I had paid off the highest interest private loans (as general debt repayment strategy suggests)!
I don't think the incentive to refinance from a government loan is there because those interest rates are already pretty good. Obviously, someone might make a poor decision and refinance with a higher rate "because it's easier" but if my case generalizes I can only see private lenders suffering because of higher rates.
On a side note, I also don't want to get rid of my government debt too soon in case some sort of policy change occurs in my favor. This isn't to say I'm not pursuing an aggressive debt strategy, just that my private loans are my higher priority.