Earlier quoted context omitted.
Interesting what you said about I-5 vs middle of nowhere. As someone who has to drive from Denver to south east Texas a few times per year for family stuff, I'd almost always rather deal with an empty great plains highway than traffic on I-5. There are downsides, mainly food and hotel choices of course.
Similar story here. My brother drives the I-40 route from West Texas to Arizona. He had a short stint doing City of Industry to Stockton. Hated every second of driving through LA, Grapevine and anywhere north of Bakersfield. Food choices are pretty much the same considering you can't venture far off the interstate and its rare that there's anything good _right_ off the five.
America has a truck driver shortage
141–150 of 404 posts
Re: America has a truck driver shortage
#142Earlier quoted context omitted.
By your logic entire concept of labour shortage is outrageous because any shortage will clear with high enough price. But for any job such as that of Truck drive the market value of that job is only X. Paying more than X would mean you should look for alternatives and get out of that business. As the truck diver salaries go up cost of everything that relies on transportation also goes up marginally. Suddenly the stru…
> Truck driving as an occupation would be pretty much extinct in next 20 years as self driving trucks I doubt it. Once off the highway trucks, given their size and ungainliness, have to perform maneuvers and general rule breaking to get around that I doubt any computer would be able to manage safely in 50 years at the very least. I've said before that self driving vehicles will be a great boon to truck drivers in the…
You correct to say that a lot of things about truck driving might not get 100% automated in next 20 years but many aspects will reducing the truck driver's salary and skill expectation. For example Wallmart or Amazon could build warehouses where trucks will be loaded and unloaded in 100% automatic fashion. For majority of the interstate driving trucks might simply go with minimal supervision and driver will have to take control only in 10% of total time. All this will make trucking less lucrative and less productive occupation. That is as good as extinction.
Re: America has a truck driver shortage
#143From the article: A few drivers told The Washington Post that they earn $100,000, but many said their annual pay is less than $50,000 (government statistics say median pay for the industry is $42,000). As for the bonuses, driver Daniel Gollnick said they are a “complete joke” because of all the strings attached. Yet the headline talks about 80 kUSD/year.
Re: America has a truck driver shortage
#144Earlier quoted context omitted.
I wouldn't re-train as a truck driver for $200k a year? Would you? And you can't just say 'there's lots of people for whom $200k would be a lot of money' because there's a lot of people who whom $50k is a lot of money and those jobs aren't filled either. Short of literally offering a million dollars a year, it's got to be more complicated than how much you offer.
If the training were free and I was guaranteed a job, then I definitely would. I see little downside.
I think the job has a very high incident of obesity and heart disease, as it's so sedentary, and a high incident of divorce because it's anti-social.
Re: America has a truck driver shortage
#145Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are corporations better managed today, than a few decades ago, when CEO's earned much less ?
Why do you think that there should be any correlation between how better they are managed and CEO salary ? There may be there may not be it is irrelevant.
Re: America has a truck driver shortage
#146Earlier quoted context omitted.
If the prospect of mass unemployment and the infliction of considerable misery on a large portion of the population is considered "the brighter side" then your argument contains some pretty consequential unstated value judgements. What, exactly, is the point of commerce in the first place? Is it measured by some abstract efficiency metric or do real life humans figure into your analysis at all? If so, which humans co…
> What, exactly, is the point of commerce in the first place? Very good question. The point of commerce is that people be able to buy other people's time willingly for a rate they voluntarily negotiate. When you can buy someone else's time you save time for your own self to do something that interests you. Everyone time you fill gas in your car you are buying perhaps 0.5 seconds of a guy who chose to work on a Oil ri…
Except, of course, there often is.
Re: America has a truck driver shortage
#147I am so sick of this perpetual fallacy about labor shortages. If you can't find enough workers it means you need to raise the price you're offering. (But yasp the article cited one particular firm has already increased prices 15% this year.) Doesn't matter. There is a certain price at which the market will clear. If the market isn't clearing it's because the price being offered is too low. Keep trying.
- Labor intensive, low margin industries typically have long-term financial structures that don't allow for high wage volatility. Most workers also dislike wage volatility, so this arrangement works. However, this means that there is limited ability by the business to address labor shortages by increasing wages.
- There is an actual labor shortage. If the market needs 1,000 neurosurgeons and there are only 800 in the world, no wage level will make that shortage disappear and it may be many years before the market can adapt. This is painfully evident at the high-end of the software engineering market. Paying higher wages doesn't eliminate the shortage, it just moves it around.
- Individual wages are capped by value produced. Companies that can pay the highest wages are those where employees produce the most value. The value produced by employees is finite so at some wage they are effectively unemployable; the market has to clear in the other direction as well.
- Spatiotemporal latency and distribution i.e. the required skills are trainable but do not exist when and where you need them. This is increasingly challenging as businesses are required to adapt on shorter timeframes; human populations change and migrate at relatively slow rates.
- Local monopsony for labor sets an economically optimal clearing price for the buyer. This creates a synthetic "labor shortage" of sorts in company towns and similar; market clearing, but in a skewed market. This is not the situation for the vast majority of Americans.
Most labor markets are some combination of all these, and the first four reasons are common in most American labor markets. None of those real labor shortages can be reasonably addressed simply by "paying more". That isn't how markets work.
Re: America has a truck driver shortage
#148Earlier quoted context omitted.
Given the interstates are clogged with long haul trucks, it obviously isn't nearly enormous enough.
Is it the trucks clogging them or everyone else? Maybe if human travelers flew instead of driving, then there would be space for the trucks.
Re: America has a truck driver shortage
#149Earlier quoted context omitted.
Interesting what you said about I-5 vs middle of nowhere. As someone who has to drive from Denver to south east Texas a few times per year for family stuff, I'd almost always rather deal with an empty great plains highway than traffic on I-5. There are downsides, mainly food and hotel choices of course.
Similar story here. My brother drives the I-40 route from West Texas to Arizona. He had a short stint doing City of Industry to Stockton. Hated every second of driving through LA, Grapevine and anywhere north of Bakersfield. Food choices are pretty much the same considering you can't venture far off the interstate and its rare that there's anything good _right_ off the five.
Grapevine sucks big time on a heavy load. Siskiyous can be scary when you are super green. Cabbage over in Oregon, first downhill route, oh god, I nearly shit myself because the fog... I’m sorry, the clouds because you’re so damn high up, came in, at night.
Re: America has a truck driver shortage
#150Earlier quoted context omitted.
I wouldn't re-train as a truck driver for $200k a year? Would you? And you can't just say 'there's lots of people for whom $200k would be a lot of money' because there's a lot of people who whom $50k is a lot of money and those jobs aren't filled either. Short of literally offering a million dollars a year, it's got to be more complicated than how much you offer.
I wouldn't re-train as a truck driver, but my partner, who makes $35,000/year moving heavy things around in a Seattle theater would. She'd step over a lot of bodies to do so. The $50,000/year jobs that aren't being filled have one of: 1. Require years of non-transferable training. 2. Have insane working hours, that make your real pay closer to minimum wage. 3. In especially shitty working conditions. 4. Are in locati…
That said, if it paid $200k/yr (median or even 75th percentile), the shortage would disappear post haste. The vast majorly of other jobs that pay that much tick boxes 1, 4, or both and are thus logistically out of reach of at least half the population.