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US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

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141–150 of 434 posts

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#141
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See Japan and Italy....

Japan is a prosperous high HDI nation. They have clearly decided that making bankers happy is not worth sacrificing their national identity by inviting mass immigration. They may not appear to be "winning" to those who measure civilizational success by the quarter but I bet their way wins out in the long run.

Clearly infinite growth is the only way. /s

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#142
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know that I would claim either of these things off-the-cuff in response to a post citing the ACS.

It's easily verifiable, see [1] under "Educational Attainment of Adults". 13% of unauthorized immigrants have completed college, as compared to 31% of US-born and 30% of authorized immigrants. [1] https://www.migrationpolicy.org/data/unauthorized-immigrant-...

Thank you for the link.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#143

Can’t say I don’t see this as a good thing. Given how some people won’t be able to survive in the post-automation future 50-100 years from now, the best thing for them is probably to never be born.

Durr Durr but the next Einstein

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#144

My personal, anecdotal observation. This is the continuing legacy of the baby boomers. A counter-point, opposite of their parents, the so-named greatest generation. Come to the height of their careers in the 70's through the 90's. The decades of self. With Michael Douglas's character's "Greed is good!" as a centerpoint. They're where the wealth has gone. Leaving following generations without the security to settle do…

So, what’s the plan when the boomer menace is over in 15-20 years? Where will their wealth go when they die?

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#145
post #25

This is something that seems to happen in most countries when they reach a certain stage of development (see Japan, Korea). I think it related to the general availability of contraception and that the work involved in caring for children has increased, while the number of carers has decreased. The trend toward migration means grandparents are often not nearby to help care for kids. This coupled with the fact that in…

> fathers often still don’t involve themselves in childcare.

Are people really living in marriages where the husband does nothing? This is a genuine question. My family is Indian, and I grew up in America, but from what I remember, my mom and dad spent most of their time taking care of my brother and I, whether that be by cooking, paying bills, cleaning the house, taking care of the car, driving us around, etc. Our grandparents lived in India, and only immigrated permanently in our teenage years, and both my parents worked (my mother even went to college). Indian culture is not known for an equal sharing of responsibilities, but that was my experience in my family. What are these husbands doing, if not taking care of their families? Watching TV? What? How is doing nothing productive for your family considered societally acceptable for men? As a man, I've always felt it was a societal imperative that everything I do directly benefit my wife and children.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cheap produce is awesome. :) But working people not being able to find jobs because they're competing with dirt-cheap no-benefit laborers is not. :(

These working people who can't find jobs are addicted to opiates or refuse to educate themselves. Dirt cheap illegal laborers slave over jobs a white American would never, ever do.

Any system that creates winners also creates losers.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, a fact is that illegal immigrants are willing to work for dirt-cheap which subsidizes our produce price. :) https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/in-an-immigrat...

Cheap produce is awesome. :) But working people not being able to find jobs because they're competing with dirt-cheap no-benefit laborers is not. :(

Every time agriculture-heavy states crack down on illegal immigration, crops rot on the vine because nobody else wants those jobs, even in periods of high unemployment. Here's the story from Georgia, there are identical ones from the Southwest as well:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2012/05/17/the-law-of-...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-06/crops-rot....

Your choice is not between illegal immigrants and working-class citizens getting that work, it's been illegal immigrants getting the work and nobody doing it.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#148
post #19

What are the economic ramifications of fertility rate being below the replacement level?

There are also military ramifications. If we get into a big skirmish with China, they will overwhelm us with soldiers and high-volume weapon manufacturing capability.

China is perhaps not the best example. Given their one child policy that was in place for a long time, and the fact the fertility rate there is still well below that of the US, the relative size of the pool for soldiers will shrink faster than in the US.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#149
post #102

Not true at all. Turns out that the poor people who actually cant afford to have kids are having more kids. Hispanic and Black growth is much higher than whites and asians. Asians with the highest income level have lowest birth rate. Given that it is mostly whites who have been leading in STEM there is a high chance that US will lose its competitive advantage in these fields.

I wonder if the poor are having more children because they feel like they have less to lose? I desperately want to have kids and my girlfriend is on board, but she makes next to nothing and I make quite a lot of money. I tried an online calculator and if things go awry between us, I'll be paying her roughly a quarter of my post-tax income for the next two decades here in California. That's just too big a gamble for m…

You only have one life. Not having children means not living it fully (though it's mighty convenient). All the money in the world won't change that and it won't matter when you're gone anyway.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest counter argument I hear, regularly, is that the "tide" of illegal labor you speak of is NECESSARY. Who will pick strawberries? Who will clean your hotel room? Etc. It's the classic who will do "X" dirty job argument.

If we decide that we are no longer able to exploit desperate immigrants to pick our crops, than the price those crops are sold at will rise until such time as the next Eli Whitney, who is probably an HN reader, invents a machine to harvest them cheaper. All you're doing by continuing the exploitation is keeping such automation from being developed, as you rob it of it's market. It is so predictable that the whole "bu…

>the price those crops are sold at will rise until such time as the next Eli Whitney, who is probably an HN reader, invents a machine to harvest them cheaper.

Sure, and who cares about the people who can't afford food in the meantime while we wait for the new Eli Whitney? You are proposing fixing one problem by creating numerous more problems.

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