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Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

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Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#141

Post by AceJohnny2 »

tehlike wrote: post #130
AceJohnny2 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People absolutely saw it coming. I remember Geithner making comments to the effect of "we aren't ready yet!" when the bubble finally broke. The Fed was already making plans to shore up the affected banks, but hadn't yet built up the funds to do so effectively. But then it depends on which timescale we're talking about.

When did they notice, and why did the housing prices go up and away years leading to 2008?

It's a long timeline, but I'd say things started getting specific late 2006:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_crisis_impact_timelin...

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#142

Post by nostrademons »

beckler wrote: post #123
nostrademons wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Colorado is now seen as the last "cool" place thats "affordable" and liberal (sorry screaming Coloradan's, you're next). Asheville, NC is coming up after Colorado - I've got one friends-couple that's actively moving there this summer, and a couple others that are thinking seriously about it. > I wonder what this all will look like when we look back 20 years hence There was an interesting throwaway comment in Carlot…

Unless you're fully remote, Asheville is a tough scene to break into if you're in the tech field.

The folks I know who are thinking of moving there are either not in tech or they're looking to retire and start a second career.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#143

Post by taysic »

nradov wrote: post #112
poof131 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s both. There clearly is a bubble. The Fed has essentially dumped easy money into the economy since the dotcom bust. 2008 saw another crash and again the spigots were opened. It only seemed to flow to certain areas though as top down economic policy tends to do. Now as the Fed raises rates, people can borrow less and thereby afford less. We may see zero percent interest rates forever and the government stepping in…

Proposition 13 doesn't really discourage most retirees from moving because Propositions 60/90 allows homeowners over age 55 to transfer their base year value once. http://www.boe.ca.gov/proptaxes/faqs/propositions60_90.htm

They're only able to carry that over into 11 other counties in CA that are basically the most expensive ones.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#144

Post by icantdrive55 »

poof131 wrote: post #95
taurath wrote: post #41

I have a pretty large group of generally geek-oriented friends across most of the western US, and tracking their migration patterns has been fascinating - we're basically all 1980's-born millennials. In the 2000's was when we met, those who had grown up there and those who were moving were in the same age group. Only about 40% were college educated or in tech/programming oriented roles. Of those, a small amount has r…

It’s both. There clearly is a bubble. The Fed has essentially dumped easy money into the economy since the dotcom bust. 2008 saw another crash and again the spigots were opened. It only seemed to flow to certain areas though as top down economic policy tends to do. Now as the Fed raises rates, people can borrow less and thereby afford less. We may see zero percent interest rates forever and the government stepping in…

The Bay Area has been increasing in value since the 70's.

1. Your bosses want to live in the better parts of San Francisco, Marin County, and certain parts if the east bay. Why--because they want only the best, and there's usually a rich daddy helping Jr. out in business, and housing.

The workers will follow.

2. It has nothing to do with Prop 13.

3. The Bay Area is a nice place to live if you are wealthy.

4. The beach 45 miniutes away. Mountains are 45 minutes away. A city hootenanny is 45 minutes away.

The wealthy/celebrities can go anywhere, and no one cares.

It's land locked--yes. People don't want building--yes. Schools are safe.

Why wouldn't property values go up? Buying real-estate in the Bay Area is as close of a sure thing as anything I betted on. It's no wonder Chinese buy our homes off the Internet.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#145

Post by acchow »

aphextron wrote: post #70
tomrod wrote: post #36

Yeah... that's not going to be sustainable. I know folks like to point at the big techcos in the area being flush with cash as evidence this can continue a long time. And in a vacuum, wage growth in tech could continue to keep pace, perhaps. But that is 300k in appreciation a year. How far out will school teachers, janitors, chefs, mechanics, city employees, and similar need to live before their not-quite-as-quickly-…

>I know folks like to point at the big techcos in the area being flush with cash as evidence this can continue a long time. And in a vacuum, wage growth in tech could continue to keep pace, perhaps. But that is 300k in appreciation a year. It's not even about people on tech salaries at this point. Those people are being priced out of the market, too. It's an issue of foreign investment mainly from China either specul…

Have evidence of this?

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#146

Post by njarboe »

garmaine wrote: post #139
bufferoverflow wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prop 13 is about property taxes, not teachers' salaries. https://www.californiataxdata.com/pdf/Prop13.pdf

What do you think funds teacher salaries?

In California it mostly comes from the States general fund. Income tax and sales tax. Most of the local property tax also goes to the state to be sent back to the schools on a per student basis, but this is about 25% of the funding. See here [1] for a good explanation of all the crazy details of California school funding and its history.

Prop 13 limited prop tax to 1% of the assessed value (actual property tax also includes many parcel taxes). About 100 school districts out of about a thousand in California have such high property values and/or low number of students that the 1% tax is enough to fund the schools at a higher per student rate than the standard for California. These rich areas are called "basic aid" districts and don't give their prop tax to the state, keeping it local and funding schools at a higher level.

[1]https://ed100.org/lessons/whopays

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#147

Post by DrScump »

taysic wrote: post #143
nradov wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Proposition 13 doesn't really discourage most retirees from moving because Propositions 60/90 allows homeowners over age 55 to transfer their base year value once. http://www.boe.ca.gov/proptaxes/faqs/propositions60_90.htm

They're only able to carry that over into 11 other counties in CA that are basically the most expensive ones.

10, effective this November.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#148

Post by usaar333 »

AceJohnny2 wrote: post #14
ninkendo wrote: post #4

Lived in a rental house in SJ for 7 years now watching prices go up and deciding to sit it out, after having lost 30% on my house in the midwest years ago. I’m kicking myself for not buying earlier, but not a chance you’d get me to buy in now. We’re in a bubble that’s ready to burst IMO.

> We’re in a bubble that’s ready to burst IMO. Not necessarily. Bubbles are based on speculation. The last bubble was powered by sub-prime mortgages, which is what burst. The Bay Area has the problem of ongoing immigration, a very highly paid demographic, and housing market that isn't keeping up. Simply, Offer Offer isn't looking to catch up any time soon [1], and demand crashing would mean the tech economy will have…

Rents are flat the last three years. Values are up by over 30%. That difference feels speculative..

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#149

Post by zxcmx »

acchow wrote: post #145
aphextron wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I know folks like to point at the big techcos in the area being flush with cash as evidence this can continue a long time. And in a vacuum, wage growth in tech could continue to keep pace, perhaps. But that is 300k in appreciation a year. It's not even about people on tech salaries at this point. Those people are being priced out of the market, too. It's an issue of foreign investment mainly from China either specul…

Have evidence of this?

You will find it hard to unearth genuine evidence to either support or disprove this hypothesis. Got anything against?

Usually you will find the data you might want is "not collected".

It is not in anyone's interest to figure out how much bubbles are propped up by foreign money.

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