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Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

ir.tesla.com

141–150 of 193 posts

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#141

I was next to Model X at a stoplight last night. They look nice from a distance, but when you sit up close you can see where every panel and piece of trim just doesn't line up quite right. Sitting in my cheap little Mazda3, I've never noticed any problem with simple fit-and-finish details like that. I truly hope the Model 3s catch up, but I really think those owners will be in for a world of headaches after delivery.

I have a Model S expensive Ford Truck and the panels don't line up perfectly either. It's not JUST a Tesla problem.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#142
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What most Tesla shorts fail to recognize is that Tesla has already gotten to the point that if something really really bad where to happen, any number of well capitalized tech firms would scoop them up in a instant (looking at Apple in particular). Maybe -- or they could wait to buy their assets in bankruptcy.

Bankruptcy is precisely when a well-capitalized buyer might buy Tesla. If TSLA fell that far, the shorts would get paid.

Yes, or even if they bought Tesla before that because it was in "trouble", the shorts would have paid out.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#143

I used to be one of the people who poked fun at Musk and suggested people short Tesla stock (as the valuation is crazy compared to the production and penetration numbers). But I am no longer that person. I read his biography (Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future) and this is a guy who genuinely wants to change things on a macro scale: opening up space, changing transportation. He is also a g…

Reading a book doesn't change fundamentals. Tesla is heading for a rough time, I sincerely hope they make it through and hope that Musk will not come to regret making that stupid joke.

The problem with your comment is the book addresses the history of the company and puts those fundamentals into perspective. I'd argue Tesla has been in rough times for most if not all of its existence. Do you think having 200 problem Roadsters in a warehouse in their first year was great? They had colossal issues with the conversion of Lotus Elise chasses to Tesla Roadsters, they were hand-building and customizing every single vehicle.

Then, when they wanted to build the Model S, they wasted a lot of time on luxury features like having flush door handles. Their output was delayed, despite having numerous pre-orders waiting.

Again, with Model X, they faced substantial delays with the falcon wing doors and the single-pylon-seat in the 2nd row. They received a lot of flak for that, and got past it in time.

Now with Model 3, they've had problems mainly at the Gigafactory with battery-pack assembly, as well as with the costly up-front labor that goes into automation of assembly lines.

And yet, here they are. They have substantial debt yes, and their credit rating is B- which isn't great, but compared to other automakers their financials are somewhat middle of the road. Look at Ford, they have a massive debt problem, or look at Chevy's electrification program, which has faced much weaker demand than Tesla will ever face with its legions of fans.

If you ask me, the "fundamentals" have never been great, but the simple fact is Tesla has hundreds of thousands of die-hard fans who have put up their own money in pre-orders and equity to keep the company going. No other car brand has this amount of loyalty and fandom, and that "fundamental" has been enough to get Tesla where they are now.

Tough times? Yes. But hoards of Muskivites will throw in cash to ensure this ship keeps sailing.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#144
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They won't reach proper automation until they're getting 5,000 to 8,000 Model 3s per week. But, of course, nobody really does automation to the level that Tesla is trying to do, so their current mix between labor and automation (as they continue to build up their automation line) is approximately what other car makers do. Getting full automation to work is really hard, takes a lot of labor and time. I think they'll d…

> nobody really does automation to the level that Tesla is trying to do Have you ever looked at production line videos from Mercedes Benz on youtube? You'll see that what Tesla wants to do is actually already being done, only with dead-tree engines instead.

Tesla wishes to do full automation of basically everything, even final assembly. According to this recent Bernstein report (by a Tesla critic), this hasn't ever been successfully done before: https://twitter.com/valleyhack/status/979434674144423936

The point of the report is that Tesla is trying to automate too much, beyond what everyone else does today and where others have tried and failed spectacularly. The report uses that history as proof it cannot be done and therefore Tesla will fail.

Are you disputing that by saying Benz does full automation of even final assembly?

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#145
post #124
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lol, I have a Hyundai and a Model S. What you wrote makes zero sense

So... your model S has cooled seats? Tesla doesn't offer them now (and apparently they didn't work when they did). My wife's Sonata has them, and they work. Not even talking about stuff that is to be expected in a $70K+ car, Tesla doesn't quite compete with a $30K econobrand when it comes to creature comforts.

Let's see. My Hyundai doesn't offer any kind of Autopilot features or advanced safety features. My Hyundai doesn't get monthly software updates that improves the car every month. My Hyundai doesn't have a world wide supercharger network to take long trips for free. My Hyundai doesn't have advanced voice features that are constantly improving. Doesn't have natively integrated streaming and podcasts app that can be controlled with voice. Doesn't have integrated Google search with voice command. Doesn't have an AI driven climate preconditioning. Doesn't have a simple UI to maintain separate driver profiles. Doesnt have an interface to customize a myriad of settings. This is just a start. I can keep going

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#146
post #21

The "leaks" on email this last week have changed the narrative a lot. The leak last week (probably not planned) of "prove the haters wrong" resulted in a sell off, while the leak over the weekend cushioned the final numbers. That said, TSLA, just like SpaceX plays really close to the edge with equity and risk in pursuit of a vision. What most Tesla shorts fail to recognize is that Tesla has already gotten to the poin…

> The big bottleneck to this point has been battery assembly lines at the Gigafactory. They just installed a new line for the battery packing line that they yanked back from Panasonic. I like Tesla, but it doesn't give me a good vibe if they're blaming partners at this point.

This was a couple of quarters ago. To the best of my knowledge, Tesla never stated this explicitly, but it was in the press.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#147
The joke is an indication their position is stronger than perceived. That's his warped sense of humor, and something he's probably been longing to do (once the time was right). I predict this press will be the first of many positive releases from Tesla. While they flew very close to the sun, the wings have held, and they will be soaring from here.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#148

Tesla asked for volunteers to staff the assembly lines last week. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-29/tesla-urg... I personally am bearish on this. If they worked so hard, but only made it to 2000 / week (their goal was 5000/week by December2017. They lowered it to 2500 this past week), then its all just marketing spin to make 2000/week look better, which is still missing their original targets. Volunt…

> Ignoring the 2000/week spurt last week, the other 7000 Model 3 cars were made over the course of 11 weeks

Exactly. The 2000 number is complete B.S. They just held back nearly finished units and the "completed" them all in the last week so they could release a semi-decent number without technically lying, but they are nowhere close to target.

"Q1 deliveries totaled 29,980 vehicles, of which 11,730 were Model S, 10,070 were Model X, and 8,180 were Model 3"

"In Q4, Tesla delivered 29,870 vehicles, of which 15,200 were Model S, 13,120 were Model X, and 1,550 were Model 3." - http://ir.tesla.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=1053245

Model S/X: -23% deliveries. That is a BIG problem. Falling demand for S/X and inability to sell at sticker price (where they still lose money) and replacing that with another model that they lose even more money on is not a great "growth" story.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reading a book doesn't change fundamentals. Tesla is heading for a rough time, I sincerely hope they make it through and hope that Musk will not come to regret making that stupid joke.

The problem with your comment is the book addresses the history of the company and puts those fundamentals into perspective. I'd argue Tesla has been in rough times for most if not all of its existence. Do you think having 200 problem Roadsters in a warehouse in their first year was great? They had colossal issues with the conversion of Lotus Elise chasses to Tesla Roadsters, they were hand-building and customizing e…

There is a problem that comes with operating at scale: yes, there are economies of scale, but they only work to your advantage when everything is running smoothly. When things are not running smoothly and you are for instance losing on every product sold those losses mount extremely rapidly. Car manufacturing is a scary undertaking for exactly that reason, especially in the Model 3 segment (where a certain amount of luxury is expected and fit and finish matter but the budget is much lower than for a luxury vehicle). There is not enough margin for error to fuck up your production, it will eat all the profits and then some.

That is why the problem of having 200 roadsters in a warehouse pales in comparison with the problem of having an assembly line that is supposed to crank out 5000 vehicles crank out 2500 (if that) instead. It means that you are losing money hand over fist, your capital expenditures and wages are identical but your income (if properly recognized) is half. This will totally wipe out your margins for quite a while to come. Car manufacturers have consolidated for a reason, even a small hickup can kill an otherwise healthy company.

Re: Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

#150

I used to be one of the people who poked fun at Musk and suggested people short Tesla stock (as the valuation is crazy compared to the production and penetration numbers). But I am no longer that person. I read his biography (Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future) and this is a guy who genuinely wants to change things on a macro scale: opening up space, changing transportation. He is also a g…

Valuation isn't everything, people compare Tesla to other car makers and say "hey, they are way smaller and getting valued higher, what a sham!", what people should be looking at is Enterprise Value. GM has 10x the debt as Tesla, and 2x the Enterprise Value. People are worried about Tesla burning billions of dollars, if they were to solve this problem with level of debt GM has, they would have another $85B to spend.

Tesla has done the hard things, they've made a great product, they've created a ton of demand and they found an entry point into a really tough market to enter. If the biggest worry right now is their need for cash to scale, I'm very bullish on their future.

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