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BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

reuters.com

141–150 of 373 posts

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#141

I don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many man…

Sure, I’ve owned multiple Volts, and I’ll keep buying them because they’re affordable (until a “luxury” car is mostly* electric).

I’d love to have a BMW. I’m finally in the bracket I can afford it, but I refuse to own a non-electric vehicle.

People want electric vehicles and they want luxury, but Tesla’s are out of the price range for most people (for now).

BMW can wait til 2020, but by then they’ll have missed the boat.

* by mostly I mean a daily commute round trip

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a very good point. But I will see if BMW actually does mass produce EVs. It's not that expensive. If you can afford $10,000-$20,000 over the life of a car in fuel (plus a few thousand in oil changes and brake jobs), you can afford a $7500 battery. Especially since that pulls thousands of dollars worth of complexity out of the drivetrain.

I think the issue is that it's $7500 in one transaction if a battery goes bad, versus the cost of fuel which is spread out over the lifetime of the car.

Batteries can be repaired, just like an engine. And the battery rarely goes immediately bad. But I think this isn't the main issue, as cars already have to deal with the same problem of being totalled.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#143

I don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many man…

BMW is one of the most progressive major auto maker in the world today. This news is not news at all and was in line with previous announcements on BMW i-series, which is the only current BMW line up that contains fully electric vehicles. Mass making electric vehicles at the same being profitable is HARD given the current technology status quo, yet crucial for any auto maker want to be in the game long term.

By 2025, BMW fleet will almost all(25 models) be electrified, and half of them (12) will be BEV (battery eletric, aka fully eletric.) This is the company that's determined to be ALL-IN on electrification on their cars. The current i-series are just too damn expansive to make (carbon-fiber unibody etc.) and not sharing many parts to the existing BMW line ups, which cost it much higher to make. So until the iNEXT platform is ready, they aren't going to mass produce EVs. [1]

[1]: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/bmw-bets-big-on-solid-sta...

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#144
post #12

For all the crap Tesla gets, this shows why they are so necessary. Switching to electric car production is a huge disruption for the existing auto industry. It basically eliminates the dealer service revenue, and turns the supply chain upside down. I doubt they would be making any effort in electric cars if the threat of Tesla did not exist. Even as it is, they are dragging their feet.

Why would it need to destroy the dealer network and the right to repair your own car? Only because Tesla runs their business like a software house doesn't mean the others need to follow suit. The German car makers also make gas powered vehicles versions of some of their fleet which are quite different from gasoline cars. What takes time is building the facilities and technology to create reliable and serviceable elec…

To be crass, fuck their dealer network - and all car dealer networks. What an ass backwards way to do business in this day and age. That model needs to be disrupt at least - die in a fire preferably.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#145
post #120

I don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many man…

I'm not saying there was conspiracy but there was complacency. The reasoning "batteries are expensive" is circular. As Musk said, technology doesn't advance as a function of time but as a function of R&D investment. See atomic bomb or space race for the most dramatic example of how throwing money at the problem compressed the timeline. Car batteries did not get cheaper because 2 years passed but because Tesla and Pan…

I think all of these things are relative. Imagine if Tesla had started in 1983 instead of 2003. We wouldn't have started mass producing electric cars in 2000 - but we'd probably get there earlier than 2020. I don't think the question of how much to invest and where to focus R&D is easy or straightforward. A lot of technological development is the story of unexpected jumps from one area to another.

Imagine an alternative reality where fast wireless communication was omnipresent and laptops developed as dumb terminals which used little power. Battery technology might be where it was 40 years ago. It's also possible that, in 50 years, people will look back at the Tesla of today as stupid and foolhardy - striving to make electric cars with stone age battery tech, when a revolution in 2025 changes everything.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#146
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most van companies offer a "chassis cab" option [1] - basically a van with the cab present, but most of the back missing. There's then an ecosystem of companies that will work with end users to design, build and fit custom van bodies. If you want a mobile broadcast van, or an ambulance or a mobile command centre? That's where they come from. If you see delivery vans that aren't standard models, they've almost certain…

Deutsche Post uses a fair amount of the standard "van-type" vans by VW, and even if someone else is making a custom body electrifying the chassis is clearly a job for VW. Given that VW's CEO has been whining to the press about how annoying it is that VW is now not their customer but a competitor, they clearly now think that they should have wanted the job more. My guess is that they did not expect the Post (which as…

There are companies that convert gas trucks to electric: http://autoweek.com/article/ces/your-electric-pickup-here-wo....

Based on this knowledge it's not clear to me the responsibility of creating an electric variant is the responsibility of VW.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#147
post #12

For all the crap Tesla gets, this shows why they are so necessary. Switching to electric car production is a huge disruption for the existing auto industry. It basically eliminates the dealer service revenue, and turns the supply chain upside down. I doubt they would be making any effort in electric cars if the threat of Tesla did not exist. Even as it is, they are dragging their feet.

Why would it need to destroy the dealer network and the right to repair your own car? Only because Tesla runs their business like a software house doesn't mean the others need to follow suit. The German car makers also make gas powered vehicles versions of some of their fleet which are quite different from gasoline cars. What takes time is building the facilities and technology to create reliable and serviceable elec…

As a BMW owner, I don't have a desire to own an electric BMW. The magic of what Tesla's doing is the cool tech that makes one lust after one of their cars in ways you don't lust after other 'boring' sedans. (of course, you might still lust after a gas sports car!)

The secret sauce is the community, the supercharger network, the ability to seamlessly plan a trip with every charge stop pre-populated and supercharger availability right there on the screen and updated on the fly. IMO, it makes everything else feel janky and outdated. An electric BMW looks like an existing car with electric bits bolted on, and good luck figuring out where to charge.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#148

I don't think there's any "collusion" or other conspiracy to hold back electric vehicles, I think what BMW said is objectively true. Lithium batteries have cost too much in the past decade to put them into more than luxury cars or negative-profit compliance cars. Supply chains don't appear overnight. LG Chem, Samsung SDI, AESC/NEC, BYD, Foxconn, etc have been building factories and securing raw materials for many man…

Sure, I’ve owned multiple Volts, and I’ll keep buying them because they’re affordable (until a “luxury” car is mostly* electric). I’d love to have a BMW. I’m finally in the bracket I can afford it, but I refuse to own a non-electric vehicle. People want electric vehicles and they want luxury, but Tesla’s are out of the price range for most people (for now). BMW can wait til 2020, but by then they’ll have missed the b…

Many would also say that Tesla's are only luxury in price. The interiors are not nearly as nice as those from BMW or Mercedes.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#149
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is just straight up baloney. The Nissan Leaf and the Chevy Bolt show this to just not be true at all. It's not that car companies like BMW and Honda and others who are being slow to release EVs are colluding so much as they are just dragging their feet because ICE engine vehicles are much more profitable right now (not requiring changes to their supply chain and manufacturing methods, or training of dealerships…

The Nissan Leaf, with a 68% smaller battery than a Tesla, cost more to build than its selling price until 2015 (5 years into production and 7 years after breaking ground on the battery factory) according to Nissan's CEO. GM only made about 25,000 Chevy Bolts last year and lost money doing it. If anything, they're both perfect examples of what I said. Nissan had to start building a supply chain for the Nissan Leaf in…

> The Nissan Leaf, with a 68% smaller battery than a Tesla

Dude, that figure is kinda bogus. You can't just cite a random number like that. The first Leafs had a 20 Kw battery which is pretty close to your figure compared to a base 60 KWh Tesla Model S. But that was only the very first years, they went up to 24 KWh then 30 KWh and the current Leaf is 40 KWh.

They're still smaller than the base Tesla battery, but they are also cheaper. THey've always been way, way cheaper than a Model S or Model X, and the current Leaf is still cheaper than the Model 3 (and you can actually buy one now.)

> Lots of stuff about the Leaf and Bolt not being profitable.

Companies like to make a lot of hay about how much money they are losing on the stuff they are selling to seem like they're doing us a favor by selling it to us. This is always at least a little misleading. For example, they will roll in the cost of the R&D and building factories and updating their tooling and supply chain and say "Well we are losing money on Bolts this year" because of all those costs.

But those costs are investments. It's not like they are costs that go into every Bolt they make. It's an investment they have to make up front and they get to make this kind of spurious claim they're "losing money" because of it. They aren't any more than the "lose money" whenever they update a model of car.

Technically whenever they update a regular model the "lose money" on some number of them due to the costs of updates to the manufacturing and tooling and supply chain. But you don't hear anything about it because everybody knows it's a stupid way to look at it.

We should pay no more attention to these claims as they ramp up to make EVs.

Again I say; EVs are here, you can buy them, they are great, stop listening to B.S. And most importantly, stop repeating it!

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#150

Folks, two years is not very long. The optimistic take on this is "wow, we might get mass production of electric cars in two years? Great!" How long does it take to design and build a car factory, anyway?

This is a very good point. But I will see if BMW actually does mass produce EVs. It's not that expensive. If you can afford $10,000-$20,000 over the life of a car in fuel (plus a few thousand in oil changes and brake jobs), you can afford a $7500 battery. Especially since that pulls thousands of dollars worth of complexity out of the drivetrain.

I love how every time there's a discussion about car operating costs here, at least someone mentions oil changes as if they were a substantial part.

Many European cars with a long-life oil change program have oil changes as far as 18,000 miles apart. While I haven't averaged quite that high, for me oil changes still account for only about 2% of the fuel costs. With any new car the depreciation in value dominates most other individual costs anyway. (Also, a modestly sized car might only need one brake service if you use it for, say, 12 years, although this is more dependent on driving habits.)

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