141–150 of 164 posts
Does anyone else find it surprising and remarkable that Paul Tudor Jones' monospaced letter is perfectly flush on the left and right margins with apparently no hyphenation nor additional inserted spaces within the lines? Surely this did not happen by coincidence (?).
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I don't see how they're great for the "middle class". A crash is generally bad for anyone who's invested. I could only see it being good for people who have cash on hand after the crash.
> A crash is generally bad for anyone who's invested You are forgetting that cash in hand or in a bank is an asset/investment. Cash should be 20-30% of any investment portfolio.
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Sounds like a strange logic to me... Is that not like wanting to become a MD just so you can "know what to do" if you ever get sick?
Makes a lot of sense to me. I wish I understood how to deal with money. As it stands, my basic problem is that I don't trust anyone to tell me, since I don't know how to rule out a conflict of interest. So I just set my employer 401k to a high-seeming level and forge ahead.
"The nascent equity options market saw assumptions based on the Black-Scholes model overturned and replaced by a more complex world of volatility skews" Black-Scholes is based on an assumption that stock moves are normal/Gaussian distributed. If have a background in statistics, that should make you revolt.
Black-Scholes was prescient went it first hit the scene in the late 60s/early 70s. Ed Thorp (who independently derived the formula before B-S published it) made tens of millions of dollars applying it through his statistical arbitrage hedge fund. It was the most accurate predictor at the time. It's also remarkable that four people independently derived the formula: "In coming up with a trading strategy for warrants,…
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Makes a lot of sense to me. I wish I understood how to deal with money. As it stands, my basic problem is that I don't trust anyone to tell me, since I don't know how to rule out a conflict of interest. So I just set my employer 401k to a high-seeming level and forge ahead.
There's still conflicts at the employer 401k level as well. There is/was basically no way to know. Obama went to fix it and then Trump shelved it.
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There's still conflicts at the employer 401k level as well. There is/was basically no way to know. Obama went to fix it and then Trump shelved it.
Can you expand on this or point to specific bills? I am curious
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I've been wondering the same thing- The best I can come up with is a ratio (depending on risk tolerance) of treasury bonds, an index fund, and non-fiat currency substitutes (gold and/or crypotocurrency) Complain about Bitcoin and their ilk, but they could (in theory at least) offer some protections against stock market crashes and/or high USD inflation.
"but they could (in theory at least)", uhm, what theory is this? No seriously I would like to hear the theoretical basis for this assertion (though I think you are totally wrong as well).
The simple fact that people like GP exist, and that there have been enough of them to propel the market cap of BTC et al. to billions, suggests that people like GP will continue to exist if the economy crashes.
In fact, if the economy were to crash, it would only take a handful of high volume BTC purchases, I'd bet, to cause another spike in price as people see an opportunity to shelter their finances.
Yes, it is high risk, but you're not just throwing away your money. BTC is much like gold in this manner - to the lay person, there is little value in the commodities other than as a store of value, which becomes more and more appealing as price continues to rise. Look at gold. Markets do not always appear to be rational.
Let's say there is a big crash coming, where would you put your money for a safe bet and for a speculative bet (and please don't say bitcoin) ? During the crash of 87, it seems like you could still get a good fixed income yield. Parking it today for 1.5% just doesn't seem that valuable.
Treasury bills. 4 week T-bills are at 1% yield now, up 10x from two years ago [0].
My fake portfolio as a kid was heavily IBM weighted. I think it was 120 or 126/share before the crash. This is one of the reasons I got a degree in finance (and economics). I wanted to know what to do with my money if I ever had any.
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Sounds like a strange logic to me... Is that not like wanting to become a MD just so you can "know what to do" if you ever get sick?
I bet a lot of doctors became doctors for exactly that reason.