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Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

theguardian.com

141–150 of 192 posts

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#141

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

Parallels also to the rise in the demand for horses after the introduction of the railroad.

The availability of long-haul transport increased transportation volume, but the "last mile" connection from origin/destination to the railroad depot couldn't be accomodated as readily. So: horses and carts.

Variously: Robert J. Gordon, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Vaclav Smil, Energy and World History -- of which there's a heavily revised edition out this year, Energy and Civilization.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rails are already there. When I drive down I5, you can see them. The reason this sorry state of affairs exists is because truck traffic is heavily subsidized (highways paid for with taxes) whereas rail traffic is heavily taxed (and the rail companies have to pay for the tracks). It could be improved by increasing weight taxes on trucks, and using the proceeds to subsidize intercity tracks.

Even in France, with paying interstate (called autoroute here) and subsidized rail (it was a state monopole until recently), most of transport of goods is by truck. I think it's mostly a last mile problem (you'll need big trucks to carry from the station), compounded by the fact that most of the train station of cities and I don't think they is a lot of dedicated cargo train station. Also you do not control part of t…

Europe generally prioritises passenger transport over freight transport, but there are rail freight terminals -- probably not anywhere you're likely to visit (example [1])

Rail traffic is allocated on a timetable, for both passenger and goods trains. The time and route is called a "path" in British English, and reserving one costs money.

A power station might have a daily path from a port to their power plant, as they can reliably use all the coal.

Rail freight companies book many paths between freight terminals, container ports and so on and mix together goods from many customers to run on trains on these paths. Therefore, the timings are reliable, potentially more reliable than by road, but the flexibility is less.

If there aren't any goods to move, the company doesn't need to use the path. (I used to live close to a railway line used to transfer trains containing nuclear waste. The reprocessing plant had a path to run a train every day, but only used it every couple of weeks -- presumably, they don't like leaving the waste at the power station any longer than necessary.)

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_freight_in_Great_Britain#...

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#143
post #13

The most likely thing (imo) that will happen will be highway trains...there will be a real human driver in the front of the caravan, maybe just in a van or car, and then 1-10 self driving heavy duty trucks behind them. They'll draft off of each other and do 99% of the long haul route in an automated way. Once each truck is near it's destination, it will peel off of the pack and park itself near the highway, at which…

> The most likely thing (imo) that will happen will be highway trains It already happens according to legislation. Though, these vehicle are generally limited to 2 trailers, restricted to some loads), if road condition allows it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_combination_vehicle

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#144
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least in the United States, this is incorrect. Long haul trucking is expensive compared to shipping things via the rails. The reason things end up being shipped via truck is that its faster, plain and simple. Shipping via rail car is slow and has no guaranteed arrival date. Or should I say, dependable arrival date. And from a logistics stand point you have to engage a last mile trucker at the rail head nearest you…

Why aren't warehouses located at or near rail stations?

Because trucking is, or at least was, cheap.

Prior to the rise of the Interstate Highway system, most warehouses were on rail lines, or spurs. You'll still find the trackage, or at least the traces of them, in many urban areas throughout the U.S.

In San Francisco, the region near Potrero Hill by the old Fashion Design Centre. The odd street patterns and building perimeters show the former track rights of way.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/San+Francisco+Design+Cente...

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#145

The approach that Starsky ( http://starsky.io/ ) is taking seems to be a promising one. They employ truck drivers as remote pilots for the "first and last mile", i.e. the local roads and loading dock work that autonomous vehicles struggle with most. Other advantages include lower fuel costs (driving slower because AVs aren't subject to operator-hour limits) and probably also lower labor costs (you don't need to pay t…

The long haul stuff should go on rails anyway. It's very wasteful to run it on the interstates. The majority of the fatigue damage to the highways comes from trucks, then there's all the rubber dust, fuel inefficiency, etc. The trailers should just be picked up and dropped on flatcars, and trucks used for intracity last mile stuff.

Don't forget to take into account there's normally only one or two lanes of train traffic that runs right along side of an 8 lane high way.

Much more chance for congestion. I lived right next to a set of tracks once. Trains would regularly sit for over an hour without moving.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've moved across the country a few times now - I'm not sure the expense of physically moving stuff was ever the largest.

They were for me, by far. What other expenses are there?

The fact that you'd first have to secure employment at your destination city?

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#147

Everyone talks about truck drivers becoming obsolete once self driving cars take over the road. What I would worry about are endless number of doctors and surgeons that spent a life time mastering a skill and will just as easily be rendered obsolete by the same technology. Lawyers too.

Be careful what you hope for by way of law.

The Jevons Paradox implications of reducing the costs of litigation by one or more orders of magnitude ... terrify me. The more so as reducing costs tends to increase the level of concentration of power.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#148
post #13

The most likely thing (imo) that will happen will be highway trains...there will be a real human driver in the front of the caravan, maybe just in a van or car, and then 1-10 self driving heavy duty trucks behind them. They'll draft off of each other and do 99% of the long haul route in an automated way. Once each truck is near it's destination, it will peel off of the pack and park itself near the highway, at which…

[deleted]

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Profits kept by shareholders.

and spent by them as well.

Rich people spend much less of their money on stuff than poor people do. Another thousand to a millionaire goes on the pile. Another thousand to a single mom goes on kids' shoes and car repairs.

Re: Will automation put an end to the American trucker?

#150

Depends, do truckers have a strong political lobby? If no, they'll be in trouble. If yes, then they'll be guaranteed to exist for as long as they are funding lobbyists and politicians.

Given that truck driver is the most popular job in the majority of US States, I get the feeling its going to go beyond having a political lobby. You put that many people out of work in one event and that's going to wreck havoc. Political lobbies are not the only way to exert power.

Truck driving is not the largest employment by major NAICS job classification. Instead you'll find that the ranking puts office & administrative, sales, and food services ahead of all transport. The final column is per-mille, not per-cent, contribution.

    43-0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations                22026080  156.881
    41-0000 Sales and Related Occupations                                14536530  103.537
    35-0000 Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations             12981720   92.462
    53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations                9731790   69.315
    51-0000 Production Occupations                                        9105650   64.855
    25-0000 Education, Training, and Library Occupations                  8636430   61.513
    29-0000 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations            8318500   59.249
    47-0000 Construction and Extraction Occupations                       5585420   39.782
    49-0000 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations             5456640   38.865
    39-0000 Personal Care and Service Occupations                         4514960   32.158
    37-0000 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations     4426090   31.525
    15-0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations                         4165140   29.666
    31-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations                                4043480   28.800
    33-0000 Protective Service Occupations                                3386360   24.119
    17-0000 Architecture and Engineering Occupations                      2499050   17.799
    21-0000 Community and Social Service Occupations                      2019250   14.382
    27-0000 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations    1902970   13.554
    19-0000 Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations                1152840    8.211
    23-0000 Legal Occupations                                             1075520    7.660
    45-0000 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations                     463640    3.302
Source: https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_nat.htm

Edit: I'm perplexed by the downvotes. Care to explain yourself?

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